Reuters had a bit up earlier that included 4 oil value forecasts. Briefly:
Citibank analysts mentioned Brent crude might stay 15–20% above pre-conflict ranges—round $75 to $78 per barrel—if the Iran-Israel battle disrupts 1.1 million bpd of Iranian oil exports:
Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, pumps 3.3 million bpd. Citi estimates {that a} 3 million bpd disruption over a number of months might carry costs to $90.
Nevertheless, Citi notes the precise influence could also be muted:
Iranian exports have already been declining
China has scaled again purchases
International provide could have already adjusted
They add that OPEC might enhance output to assist offset any disruption, and a Hormuz shutdown would seemingly be temporary.
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Extra:
J.P. Morgan warned that if the battle widened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, oil might surge to $120–130.Goldman Sachs sees a $10/bbl geopolitical threat premium at the moment in pricesBarclays sees $85 oil if Iranian exports are halved, and above $100 in a worst-case regional struggle
This text was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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