Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights: 13-17th October 2025

Week Forward:Highlights embrace Potential US CPI and Retail Gross sales information, begin of earnings season, China inflation and commerce, UK GDP earnings season, China inflation and commerce, UK GDP

UK GDP

MON: US Columbus Day, Canadian Thanksgiving, Japanese Vacation (Sports activities Day), OPEC MOMR, Chinese language Commerce Steadiness (Oct)

TUE: RBA Minutes (Sep), IEA OMR, UK Unemployment/Wages (Aug), German ZEW (Oct), US NFIB (Sep)

WED: Chinese language CPI/PPI (Sep), EZ Industrial Manufacturing (Aug), US CPI (Sep), NY Fed Manufacturing (Oct)

THU: Australian Employment (Sep), UK GDP (Aug), EZ Commerce Steadiness (Aug), US Weekly Claims, Philly Fed (Oct), PPI (Sep), Retail Gross sales (Sep)

FRI: EZ HICP Ultimate (Sep), US Constructing Permits/Housing Begins (Sep), Industrial Manufacturing (Sep)

UK GDP on Thursday

US EARNINGS SEASON:

The Q3 reporting will choose up from subsequent week; 68% of firms masking 72% of market capitalization anticipated to report by month-end. Goldman Sachs notes that the consensus expects S&P 500 earnings development to gradual to six% Y/Y (vs 11% in Q2), although stronger gross sales and contributions from the Magazine 7 may drive higher-than-expected outcomes. GS says EPS development is more likely to reasonable on account of diminished FX advantages, increased tariffs, and one-time Q2 prices. However GS thinks gross sales development will exceed the consensus projection of 4%. The financial institution factors out that tariffs, up 33% from Q2 to USD 93bln, had been a bigger headwind, limiting potential margin growth.

The Magnificent 7 are projected to see EPS development of 14%, half the tempo of earlier quarters. AI- associated capex stays a focus, with hyperscaler capex anticipated to develop 75% Y/Y in Q3, though estimates anticipate slower development in subsequent quarters. GS provides that, traditionally, AI capex has constantly exceeded expectations, highlighting the sectorʼs ongoing funding momentum. In the meantime, main banks will report subsequent week (JPM, WFC, C, GS all on October 14th); Barclays says that its latest convention, which was attended by 21 of twenty-two large-cap banks, advised a usually constructive tone, pointing to strong Q3 outcomes and outlook.

Barclays says

Barclays says internet curiosity earnings, internet curiosity margins (reflecting ~50% beta on the newest Fed minimize), and payment earnings (supported by capital markets) seem in line or above expectations.

Asset high quality stays secure other than a couple of one-offs, and share repurchases are anticipated to proceed, with tendencies doubtless extending into This autumn and 2026.

Outdoors of the US, TSMC (TSM) and Samsung (SSNLF) are set to report earnings subsequent week, drawing consideration amid the worldwide AI increase; following heavy funding from US tech corporations like NVIDIA (NVDA) and OpenAI, their outcomes mayprovide perception into the potential for an AI-driven market bubble.

CHINESE TRADE BALANCE (MON)CHINESE TRADE BALANCE (MON) :

There are at present no expectations for Septemberʼs Chinese language Commerce Steadiness. ING forecasts exports to rebound 7.6% Y/Y, supported by resilient exterior demand, whereas imports are seen rising a modest 2.3% Y/Y, yielding a commerce surplus of roughly USD 99.7bln. ING notes that whereas Golden Week journey figures had been strong, weaker field workplace and retail spending level to continued softness in family demand, suggesting scope for additional focused coverage assist.

RBA MINUTES:

The RBA will launch the minutes from its September thirtieth assembly subsequent week, the place it stored the Money Price unchanged at 3.60%, as anticipated, with the choice made unanimously. Whereas the assertion famous that although inflation has fallen considerably from its 2022 peak, the decline in underlying inflation has slowed, and up to date information counsel Q3 CPI could also be increased than anticipated on the time of the August Assertion on Financial Coverage.

The Financial institution reiterated its concentrate on quarterly trimmed imply inflation as the first information, though Governor Bullock acknowledged that month-to-month CPI nonetheless offers some info. Moreover, the Board judged that dangers at the moment are “broadly balanced,” noting each upside dangers from stronger home demand and draw back dangers if households change into extra cautious in response to exterior developments.

The assertion underlined that the Financial institution stays “alert to the heightened stage of uncertainty” and can proceed to replace its evaluation as information evolves. ING advised that the RBAʼs tone had turned much less dovish, with the August CPI upside shock diminishing the chance of a close to time period minimize. The desk additionally argued that the Financial institution would require clearer proof of inflation sustainably monitoring towards the two.5% midpoint earlier than contemplating additional easing, with the October twenty ninth Q3 CPI launch flagged as pivotal.

Moreover, ING noticed the probability of a November minimize as having “diminished meaningfully,” although it nonetheless expects that coverage needn’t stay restrictive for an prolonged interval.

UK JOBS/WAGES (TUE):

Augustʼs unemployment fee is predicted to stay at 4.7%, common earnings are additionally seen at 4.7% as soon as once more, whereas the ex-bonus determine is forecast to reasonable barely to 4.7% from 4.8%. The final launch got here in broadly as anticipated, and whereas it confirmed a labour market that continues to weaken, the magnitude of the transfer didn’t on the time change the narrative for the BoE, significantly with wages nonetheless elevated.

Inside the latest BoE assertion, the MPC highlighted that there’s much less of a direct danger that the labour market would loosen very quickly. Total, if the consensus proves appropriate, then the discharge is unlikely to have near-term implications for the BoE.

The situation of an acceleration within the ongoing labour market weakening can also be unlikely to have a lot bearing on the November assembly, with a maintain all however sure; nonetheless, it could consider favour of the slim implied likelihood of a December minimize, although on that we await the Autumn Price range and particulars on inflation.

CHINESE INFLATION (WED):

CPI Y/Y for September is forecast at -0.1% (prev. -0.4%), M/M anticipated at +0.2% (prev. 0.0%), and PPI Y/Y anticipated at -2.3% (prev. -2.9%). Utilizing the RatingDog PMIs (previously Caixin) as a proxy for the upcoming launch, it advised “price pressures intensified for producers in September, however corporations opted to chop their promoting costs amid intense competitors”, while for companies “enter costs continued to rise reasonably.” When it comes to final monthʼs launch, CPI fell greater than anticipated whereas deflation in wholesale costs persevered, as Beijing faces mounting calls to ramp up measures to bolster home demand and weakening exports development.

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US CPI (WED; LIKELY DELAYED):

The BLS has recalled workers to finalise the September Shopper Value Index report, important for calculating subsequent yearʼs Social Safety funds, Bloomberg reported.

The White Home Workplace of Administration and Price range directed the transfer, aiming for publication by the tip of October, vs the unique launch date of October fifteenth.

The consensus appears for headline CPI to rise +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.4%), whereas the core fee is predicted to rise by +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.3%). Citigroup is in step with the consensus and sees US core CPI rising 0.28% M/M in September (vs 0.35% M/M in August), as softer housing inflation offsets tariff-driven worth pressures; the financial institution mentioned weaker labour and housing markets are seen as decreasing inflation dangers, supporting expectations of additional Fed easing.

The FOMC assembly minutes launched this week revealed that officers are cut up over financial coverage on account of differing views on inflation and the labour market; most see employment weakening, justifying additional fee cuts, however some have famous inflation dangers. Nonetheless, officers usually see the inflation influence diminishing and anticipate a return to the two% goal.

Analysts have mentioned that the cut up displays contrasting assessments on whether or not present coverage is already accommodative or whether or not further easing is required to assist jobs. Exterior components, equivalent to tariffs and the federal government shutdown limiting financial information, add uncertainty, contributing to a cautious however usually easing stance.

Cash markets are at present pricing 44bpsof easing by the tip of this yr, signalling one totally discounted 25bps discount, with a excessive likelihood of one other (in step with the Fed’s up to date projections).

AUSTRALIAN EMPLOYMENT (THU):

There are at present no median forecasts for the discharge. Westpac expects employment to rise by 15k in September (prev. –5.4k), which might maintain the employment-to-population ratio broadly regular close to 64%.

The prior monthʼs decline introduced annual jobs development right down to 1.8% Y/Y from 2.5% in February, reflecting a softening development amid an business rebalancing — with the “care financial system” contribution halving whereas the market sector exhibits tentative enchancment.

The unemployment fee is forecast to edge as much as 4.3% (prev. 4.2%), with participation seen holding at 66.8%. Westpac notes that easing cost-of-living pressures and cooling labour demand are contributing to a modest cyclical easing in participation, although longer-term structural components are anticipated to maintain participation elevated.

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UK GDP (THU):

The July sequence was as anticipated for the headline M/M and 3M/3/M figures, although the Y/Y was barely softer than consensus and remained on the prior stage.

Internals of the info confirmed specific strain stemming from manufacturing, whereas companies and building noticed development; manufacturing was primarily hit by a decline in manufacturing output. For August, consensus appears for an uptick to 0.2% M/M from 0.0%.

Nonetheless, Pantheon Macroeconomics appears for one more 0.0% M/M print with industrial manufacturing set to weigh as soon as once more. Pantheon attributes this to a pointy fall in North Sea oil flows. A story that offsets the upward skew offered by the monthʼs PMIs the place companies got here in stronger than anticipated for August, lifting the composite measure and offsetting the bigger contraction seen in manufacturing.

Inside that launch, S&P wrote that “financial development has continued to speed up over the summer time…”. Nonetheless, Septemberʼs PMIs noticed additional manufacturing strain and a pullback in each companies and the composite parts, with the outlook deteriorating forward of the funds and deteriorating overseas commerce.

Total, the August launch shouldn’t have a lot bearing on the BoEʼs near-term trajectory, with simply 5bps of easing implied by end-2025. Nonetheless, if the arduous information does deteriorate because the PMIs counsel it would into September and past, then, relying to a level on the Autumn Price range, the chances of a minimize on the December assembly may climb.

UK GDP

US RETAIL SALES (THU; LIKELY DELAYED):

The info’s launch is more likely to be delayed. Nonetheless, the consensus appears for headline retail gross sales to rise +0.4% M/M in September (prev. +0.6%). Core retail gross sales are seen rising +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.7%).

In response to Financial institution of America’s month-to-month client checkpoint report, complete credit score and debit card spending per family +2.0% Y/Y in September (prev. +1.7% Y/Y); seasonally adjusted spending development per family +0.2% M/M (prev. 0.4% M/M), the fourth straight month-to-month acquire.

Analysts are additionally starting to have a look at projections for the vacation spending season; on-line gross sales are anticipated to develop extra slowly in 2025 on account of financial uncertainty, in keeping with Adobe Analytics. On-line gross sales (between November and December) are projected to rise 5.3% Y/Y to USD 253.4bln (vs 8.7% final yr). Cyber Monday is forecast as the largest day, with USD 14.2bln in gross sales. Cellular buying is predicted to account for 56.1% of on-line spending, and BNPL purchases are set to extend by USD 2bln.

Elsewhere, Salesforce forecasts slower development for US on-line vacation gross sales in 2025, as shoppers tighten budgets amid rising residing prices. It sees spending in November-December rising 2.1% Y/Y to USD 288bln (vs its information, which confirmed 4% final yr); it added that AI-driven suggestions and agent-assisted buying may drive USD 51bln, or 18% of complete gross sales.

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UK GDP