Final week noticed the biggest east coast sheep and lamb yarding since mid-June. Determine 1 reveals that whereas yardings are up, the rise hasn’t been extraordinary — in truth, this time final yr noticed a stronger leap than what we’ve seen over the previous fortnight.
It’s Victorian and South Australian producers who are inclined to drive provide greater presently of yr and see east coast yardings swell, as proven in Determine 1. Determine 2 reveals lamb yardings have been under common in Victoria for spring to this point however have adopted the traditional development greater.
Anomalies in spring and early summer time provide patterns at Victorian saleyards are comparatively uncommon. Even within the rebuild years of 2020 and 2021, Victorian lambs hit the saleyards in earnest late within the yr. We did discover a weaker provide yr, nevertheless — Determine 2 reveals that in 2022, lamb yardings in Victoria have been 7% decrease than the five-year common.
A fast take a look at rainfall for spring 2022 tells us that the weaker-than-normal provide in that interval was seemingly extra because of the very moist spring (see extra right here) than restocking intentions.
Trying on the demand facet, short-term value strikes just like the one we noticed final week are normally resulting from provide outstripping slaughter capability. We all know that export demand for lamb is robust, and weak slaughter charges since Could are resulting from an absence of provide.
Determine 3 reveals east coast lamb slaughter was nonetheless working properly under final yr, the five-year common, and 2022. There must be an incentive when it comes to revenue margin for processors to placed on extra shifts, therefore the value falls we’ve seen just lately.
Fortunately for us, the US authorities shutdown hasn’t impacted reporting of imported lamb costs. Export costs for Australian lamb stay very sturdy and are above final yr’s ranges.
