Analyst Weekly, November 11, 2025
Bitcoin: Much less Noise, Extra Conviction
After six straight days of ETF outflows, Bitcoin simply flipped the script with practically $240M in inflows marking its sharpest rebound in weeks. It’s a signal that Bitcoin’s market construction is maturing.
The previous four-year increase–halving–bust cycle is fading quick. With over 93% of Bitcoin already mined, halvings now transfer sentiment greater than provide. Institutional gamers like BlackRock, Constancy, and ARK are absorbing cash whereas leveraged merchants exit. It’s a quiet switch of energy: from speculators to allocators.
A New Part for Bitcoin
Roughly 400,000 BTC have shifted from long-term holders to institutional traders in simply the previous month. Every dip is met with accumulation, not panic. Volatility is compressing, now under 30%, a stage unseen since pre-ETF days, signaling that Bitcoin is behaving extra like a structural asset than a speculative one. It’s beginning to decouple from gold and the Nasdaq, transferring to its personal rhythm.
If inflows maintain and leverage stays muted, Bitcoin’s evolution from cyclical commerce to long-term allocation may very well be underway. Recoveries are quicker, drawdowns smaller, conviction stronger.
Crypto: Structural Rotation Underway
Institutional flows proceed to favor Bitcoin’s readability over Ethereum or Solana however that doesn’t make the latter any much less vital. We keep structurally bullish on each: Ethereum and Solana are rising as the 2 major roads to the tokenized future, powering stablecoins, real-world property, and DeFi infrastructure.
Earnings Preview: Week of November 10, 2025
Utilized Supplies (AMAT): Utilized Supplies (AMAT) will ship its fiscal This autumn 2025 earnings on Nov. 13 because the semiconductor gear chief contends with US export curbs which have curtailed gross sales to China and a cautious chipmaking capex surroundings. Traders are centered on whether or not surging demand for AI server chip instruments can offset softer orders from reminiscence and logic clients. AMAT had warned of a drop on this quarter’s income attributable to Chinese language chipmakers pausing new gear purchases and if administration’s steering or feedback on its backlog point out that the trade downturn is bottoming, which might drive the inventory’s response.
JD.com (JD): JD.com (JD) is slated to report Q3 2025 earnings on Nov. 13, and its outcomes will present how China’s e-commerce surroundings is faring amid a lukewarm client and intense competitors. Analysts count on roughly 13% YoY income progress however a pointy drop in revenue as JD’s heavy investments in new providers (like meals supply and instantaneous retail) have squeezed margins. Traders will look ahead to indicators that JD’s pivot to an “efficiency-first” technique is paying off; if the corporate can translate strong gross sales progress into improved money stream and margins, it may mark a turning level from latest cautious sentiment to renewed optimism on the inventory.
Tencent Holdings (TCEHY): Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) is predicted to put up strong Q3 2025 progress, with forecasts for roughly 13–14% increased income and mid-teens earnings positive factors pushed by a rebound in its gaming and internet marketing companies alongside enhancing margins. Market consideration will heart on whether or not Tencent’s heavy investments in AI and cloud (the corporate budgeted round RMB 100 billion in AI capex this yr) are sustaining its momentum, new hit recreation launches and AI-enhanced advert expertise have buoyed outcomes, and the way China’s macro surroundings or tech laws may mood its outlook, as these elements will affect investor response.
Sea Restricted (SEA): Sea Restricted (SE) will launch Q3 2025 outcomes on Nov. 11, and the market is anticipating robust top-line progress (~40% YoY income surge to just about $6 billion) pushed by its Shopee e-commerce and SeaMoney fintech items. Nonetheless, profitability is below the microscope, the corporate’s gross sales and advertising bills have spiked (~30% YoY final quarter) and a few analysts warning Sea is “prone to commerce margins for progress” so traders will watch whether or not Sea can present enhancing margins or price self-discipline even because it chases progress, which will probably be vital for the inventory’s post-earnings response.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Occidental Petroleum is scheduled to put up Q3 2025 outcomes on Nov. 10, and Wall Road anticipates declines from a yr in the past (round $6.7 billion income, -6% YoY, and ~$0.48 EPS, -50% YoY) as final yr’s oil worth surge. Key focal factors will probably be OXY’s manufacturing volumes and capital returns; the corporate has elevated output within the Permian and aggressively minimize debt (decreasing curiosity bills by $410 million) to bolster margins, together with any commentary on commodity worth traits or shareholder payouts, which may sway the inventory’s response.
Cisco Techniques (CSCO): Cisco Techniques (CSCO) will announce its earnings after the Nov. 12 shut, with consensus round $14.8 billion in income (+~7% YoY) and $0.98 in EPS. Traders will probably be watching if Cisco’s core networking enterprise can maintain sturdy progress, fueled by a multi-year improve cycle in AI infrastructure and enterprise campus refreshes and whether or not administration’s steering and order backlog affirm surging demand (Cisco practically doubled its AI-related gross sales goal final quarter), as these elements will closely affect the inventory’s post-earnings transfer.
Walt Disney Co. (DIS): Walt Disney (DIS) reviews fiscal This autumn 2025 outcomes forward of the Nov. 13 open, with consensus projecting about $1.02 in EPS (-10% YoY) on $22.8 billion income (+~1% YoY). Traders will probably be eyeing Disney’s streaming subscriber traits and theme park momentum versus continued weak point in its conventional TV networks, these metrics, together with any new cost-cutting or strategic updates (similar to plans round ESPN or content material spending), will set the tone for the way the inventory reacts to the earnings.
Valuations Are Stretching However So Is the Market’s Breadth
The highest of the S&P 500 remains to be dwelling giant. The median price-to-earnings (P/E) a number of of the highest 5 S&P 500 names sits at 30.2x, towering over the broader market’s 23x and the median inventory’s 19x. Traders are nonetheless paying a steep premium for the largest gamers.
What’s attention-grabbing this yr, although, is that the common inventory, not the megacaps, has seen the larger valuation bump. The “S&P 493” (the remainder of the index minus the Magnificent Seven) has truly skilled extra a number of growth, which means traders at the moment are prepared to pay extra for every greenback of earnings even exterior Large Tech.
That’s helped elevate the general market a number of, however it’s additionally flashing a light warning signal. At 19x, the median inventory’s valuation is now simply two turns under its 2021 peak of 21.3x, which marked the final main market high. Fundamentals stay robust, however valuation tailwinds are getting drained. Costs can’t hold rising simply because traders really feel good, ultimately, earnings must do the heavy lifting.
Earnings Beat Expectations, and Then Some
Company America remains to be cranking out earnings. Third-quarter earnings season got here in up 14% year-on-year, blowing previous preliminary forecasts that known as for mid-single-digit progress. That’s regardless of a backdrop of slowing job progress and a short lived authorities shutdown, each of which, surprisingly, barely dented earnings outcomes. We count on a macro slowdown in This autumn is slower, as hiring cools down, but the company backside line hasn’t flinched. That has, up to now, helped maintain investor confidence.
No shock: the Magnificent Seven, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia, proceed to dominate on each earnings and efficiency. Their earnings progress has powered a lot of the S&P 500’s positive factors for a number of quarters. That mentioned, by the second half of 2026, the hole in earnings progress between the Magazine 7 and the remainder of the S&P 500 (the “493”) may begin to compress.
Which means earnings breadth could lastly widen as extra sectors contribute to revenue progress, not simply tech titans. It’s the type of shift that tends to make bull markets extra sustainable and fewer top-heavy.
Bitcoin Slips: Can the $100,000 Stage Maintain?
Bitcoin fell about 7% final week after help at $107,370 failed to carry. Sellers had already been placing strain available on the market in latest weeks. The cryptocurrency danced not solely across the psychologically essential $100,000 mark but in addition flirted with bear-market territory — at one level, the drop from the all-time excessive exceeded 20%.
Regardless of the pullback, the market confirmed some resilience. Bitcoin reacted to a widely known help zone, the Honest Worth Hole between $96,950 and $99,730, which was already defended in June. The weekly shut above the decrease boundary of this zone suggests a level of stabilization for now.
The long-term uptrend stays intact. Within the quick time period, nevertheless, the chart would solely enhance if Bitcoin regains the damaged help at $107,370. If the $96,950 stage fails, the subsequent main help zone may come into focus between $85,600 and $91,920.
Bitcoin, weekly chart. Supply: eToro
Infineon Forward of Q3 Earnings: Restoration Stalls, Stress Rises
Infineon shares fell about 3.5% final week, presently buying and selling round €33. This halted the three-week restoration section for now. Since September, the inventory has tried to rebound twice from the help zone between €30.46 and €32.15, however up to now it hasn’t managed to check the medium-term resistance at €38. A stage that has blocked any sustained transfer towards report highs since March 2023.
From a technical perspective, the prospect of one other upward transfer stays so long as the decrease boundary of the Honest Worth Hole at €30.46 holds. Nonetheless, if this help breaks, traders ought to be ready for a possible decline towards the €27.44–€28.17 vary. Infineon will report its Q3 outcomes on Wednesday, which may mark a decisive “make-or-break” second for the inventory.
Infineon weekly chart. Supply: eToro
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