The 2 weeks main as much as the first of November Wheatcast run had been comparatively dry for a lot of NSW and WA, and therefore a few of the potential was stripped out of those zones.
With harvest underway throughout a lot of NSW and WA, the potential for modifications in yields resulting from rainfall is all however non-existent. Consequently, the Wheatcast report has largely locked in its ultimate wheat yields.
Determine 1 reveals the Wheatcast are pegging nationwide yield at 2.42 t/ha, which is effectively above the long-term common however beneath the September ABARES forecast of two.66 t/ha.
All states have had drier than optimum finishes to the rising season, which stripped some potential out of crops, and in elements of the south noticed crops minimize for hay. Cereal hay costs throughout the east coast dived $70/t a fortnight in the past (Determine 2).
This was when there was loads of media masking crops being minimize for hay, however costs usually fall presently of 12 months. We will see in Determine 2 that as of the tip of October, cereal hay costs remained round $70/t above the identical time final 12 months. This implies that provide continues to be but to overwhelm demand.
Harvest picked up tempo in NSW and WA final week (Determine 3) with over 1 mmt delivered into NSW GrainCorp websites. East coast receivals had been round 1.6 mmt beneath the identical week final 12 months, which may counsel yields are decrease. Harvest may additionally simply be operating per week behind because of the climate. We’ll know within the coming weeks.
Wheat costs haven’t responded to rising values within the US, simply as they didn’t actually fall when US costs had been weakening in October. This isn’t uncommon at harvest, with growers busy on headers not conserving observe of worldwide values and cashing on the web site. It’s value having worldwide costs in your smartphone, or warehousing and promoting later.
