Because of the Authorities shutdown within the US, there was no October WASDE, with all of the updates dumped into the November launch late final week. The USDA elevated forecast wheat manufacturing by 12.5 mmt on September. Whereas consumption was additionally elevated, it was solely by 4 mmt, which means that the wheat image has gone from producing a small surplus to seeing a 2.8% improve in ending shares.
The USDA elevated manufacturing forecasts in Argentina, the US, Canada, the EU, Russia, and apparently Australia. The USDA are actually forecasting wheat manufacturing right here at 36 mmt. As outlined final week, this appears a bit extreme given the dry end to the winter cropping season in some key areas.
The market was anticipating upgrades to wheat manufacturing forecasts, and as such Chicago SRW fell, however it was restricted to 9¢ per bushel. In our phrases SRW for December 25 has gone from simply above $300/t to simply under, round $298/t right this moment. Modifications in native wheat costs have been equally minimal in current weeks (Determine 2).
Harvest continues to roll alongside comparatively slowly on the East Coast. Victoria and South Australia have had cooler situations, with harvest means behind final 12 months. GrainCorp receivals on the east coast have been rising, with over 1 mmt harvested in NSW final week (Determine 3). East coast receivals for the harvest so far are nonetheless practically 2 mmt behind final 12 months. This may be rapidly caught up if the grain is there. The USDA thinks it’s.
Canola costs are a little bit of a shining gentle for croppers, with current rallies seeing costs transfer again in the direction of $800/t on a delivered port foundation. GM canola is once more lagging behind this 12 months, at present round $720/t on the east coast.
