This week, StatsCan up to date their manufacturing information and revealed what the commerce and the farmer all knew — the 2025 crop was a file. StatsCan reported a file canola crop of 21.8mmt, 2.56mmt greater than final yr’s crop. Whole wheat manufacturing rose 11% yr over yr to a file 40mmt in 2025, surpassing the earlier file set in 2013. StatsCan additionally lifted their barley crop estimate to 9.7mmt, up some 19% from final yr to hitch within the large world barley harvest get together.
The influence has been felt largely within the ICE canola pit, having traded down practically C$20/t in two buying and selling classes. This feeds on to our GM canola costs, having additionally seen money costs tumble simply as our canola harvest picks up tempo.
ABARES’ December replace additionally added extra weight to the “larger crop” narrative. Nationwide winter crop manufacturing is now forecast to rise 10% to 66.3mmt in 25/26 — the second-largest on file. Wheat is pegged 4% larger at 35.6mmt (29% above the 10-year common), barley up 18% to a file 15.7mmt (33% above common), canola up 13% to 7.2mmt, and lentils surging 51% to a file 1.9mmt.
Collectively, these upgrades reinforce a bearish tone for costs and strengthen importers’ confidence that offer is plentiful and timing is on their facet.
The Black Sea area stays a hassle spot, with Russia showing to reject the newest peace makes an attempt. The negotiations have been described as ‘constructive’, but failed to attain any sort of decision or frequent floor. Ukraine has taken intention at Russia’s so-called ‘shadow fleet’, sinking a few unflagged service provider tankers believed for use by Russia to get round Western oil sanctions. Russia has threatened to dam entry to all Black Sea passage for Ukrainian vessels. Thus, the issues proceed to unfold with the potential for some danger premium to re-enter the market ought to issues escalate.
