The ABARES outlook has 2025–26 lamb manufacturing dipping by 8% and mutton down by 26%, equating to a 15% decrease whole sheepmeat export quantity from Australia. They’ve given a variety of 23.1 million to 24 million head for lamb slaughter, whereas sheep slaughter could possibly be 8.3 million to eight.7 million head. The sheep flock is anticipated to extend by 4% to 66.9 million. As soon as once more, as with Meat & Livestock Australia’s newest business projections, the ABARES flock outlook relies on ABS figures, which haven’t been up to date since 2021–22.
Costs are more likely to head in the wrong way from manufacturing, in keeping with ABARES, with the Nationwide Commerce Lamb Indicator to common 1085c/kg for the 2025–26 interval, which might be a 31% improve from the 830c/kg it averaged in 2024–25. Thus far for 2025–26, the NTLI week-end MLA reported figures are averaging 1123c/kg, having reached a peak of 1223c/kg in August. The report predicts {that a} later flush of new-season lambs will put downward stress on costs, however not considerably so, therefore the numerous improve year-on-year.
Unsurprisingly, given the present year-on-year premium, the Nationwide Mutton Indicator is about to enhance markedly, rising 62% to 674c/kg. Thus far in 2025–26 it’s averaging 721c/kg, having hit a document week-end worth of 803c/kg within the ultimate week of September, which was 95% above the 10-year common worth for that week.
Decrease manufacturing means much less despatched offshore, and sheepmeat exports are anticipated to fall 15%, whereas dwell sheep exports will likely be again 28%. Regardless of this, greater costs stemming from the deficits to be crammed in key markets reminiscent of the USA and China will imply that the sheepmeat and dwell sheep export worth for the 2025–26 12 months will truly rise 10%. On prime of Australia’s current decrease flock numbers, the New Zealand flock has fallen 23% previously 10 years, indicating a dearth of worldwide provide.
