World hurdles have additionally already been thrown on the Australian business, which exports a majority of its beef, and these impacts are simpler to forecast within the quick time period. The primary day of the yr introduced with it the announcement that China had applied safeguard measures on imported beef, successfully instantly, reportedly to guard its home cattle business. The safeguards will place a 2.7 million metric tonne cap on China’s main beef suppliers this yr, with that whole quota rising incrementally over the next two years.
Particularly, Australia’s quota for 2026 can be 205,000 tonnes, a determine which is able to enhance by 4,000 tonnes in 2027, and the identical once more in 2028. As soon as the quota has been reached, a further tariff of 55% can be utilized. Final yr, Australia exported 272,940 tonnes to China, a rise of 41% year-on-year, and considerably greater than the brand new 2026 quota. Brazil despatched about half of all its exported beef to China final yr, a quantity of 1.7 million tonnes, and their 2026 China quota is ready at 1.1 million tonnes. Different nations within the Americas fared higher, with Argentina, Uruguay and even the US receiving quotas properly above their 2025 export volumes.
This announcement comes off the again of file volumes of beef, and whole pink meat, being exported from Australia in 2025. America’s low herd numbers offset the brand new 10% tariff applied by that nation on Australia in April, and meant it remained Australian beef’s largest market, with exports to the US rising 16% year-on-year, 48% above 2023 ranges. Steiner expects US home provide to stay constrained for the primary half of the yr at the least, and Australian imports ought to enhance additional, albeit solely marginally. Imported beef costs within the US have opened agency to stronger, as exporters from Australia and Brazil flip their consideration to getting product into China as quickly as attainable to keep away from the out-of-quota tariff.
