Wool, as a part of the better attire fibre market complicated, tends to comply with the final path of attire fibre costs comparable to cotton, polyester, acrylics, and the cellulosics. Sometimes it has gone its personal means, often within the a long time because the mid-Twentieth century when official stockpiles had been liquidated. This season it has gone its personal means once more, with attire fibre costs at lowish ranges and drifting decrease. Low shares within the provide chain and falling manufacturing in most areas appear to have been the spark for the rally in worth since mid-2025.
Determine 1 exhibits the change in worth within the first week of Australian public sale gross sales following the Christmas recess from 1993 to this 12 months, for the Jap Market Indicator (EMI) in Australian greenback phrases. The EMI is an efficient measure of motion within the common worth of all wool offered within the Australian public sale market. Final week the EMI rose by 7%, which is within the prime decile of first-week worth modifications since 1993. It was a robust begin, however nicely behind 2002, 2007, and 2011.
Determine 1 exhibits the seasonal propensity for costs to be stronger after the Christmas recess. Determine 2 extracts the seasonal worth sample for the EMI for the previous decade, by gross sales week for the season working from July to June. Worth weak spot within the spring, centred about sale weeks 13-15, stays a characteristic of the market though that sample was fully ignored this season (because it was in 2002-2003). Worth then tends to agency up from the spring into January/February (weeks 28 to 36). A carry of 2-3% has been the median impact in the course of the previous decade for the EMI, so the 7% rise final week was a bit greater than double this sample.
Final week’s worth rise is now a part of historical past. Can it inform us something of the long run? Determine 2 compares the change in worth for the EMI within the first sale after Christmas, from 1993 to 2025, and the distinction within the common worth for the EMI within the second half of the season versus the primary half. The excellent news is that the place the post-Christmas rise is a robust one, it tends to be correlated with a better second-half worth.
There are six cases of worth rises of 5% or extra, with the second-half common EMI being 8% or extra above the first-half common. Consider the rise final week was 7%, so this piece of historical past suggests a stronger second half for the EMI.
