Meat & Livestock Australia initiatives slaughter, manufacturing and beef exports to be decrease year-on-year in 2026, however stay above 2024 ranges. In addition they count on the herd dimension to lower additional each this yr and subsequent, constricting provide, albeit from traditionally sturdy ranges. From a provide and demand perspective, will probably be Australia’s means to provide the meat which is able to possible constrain exports this yr, with anecdotal experiences of excessive feminine turn-off attributable to dry circumstances within the south, and vital inventory losses from floods within the north.
The US took simply shy of 30% of all Australian beef exported in 2025, a market share determine which was an identical to 2024, however an precise quantity which was 16% larger year-on-year, and a report excessive. It was additionally greater than 50% above the five-year common annual quantity. Cow slaughter within the US is presently trending at greater than 20% decrease year-on-year, whereas opening fed cattle slaughter figures are 7% down, and cattle-on-feed numbers at the start of the yr had been an estimated 3.5% decrease. The US Division of Agriculture is forecasting a 3% enhance in beef imports by the US in 2026, and the decrease tariff quota for all nations which fall into the ‘Different’ class has possible already been crammed for 2026.
Australian beef exports to China rose by 32% year-on-year, growing their market share to 18%. This was about 1% decrease than the five-year-average market share for China, however nonetheless about 35% above the common volume-wise, and made it Australia’s second-largest beef market. As we mentioned right here, nonetheless, the 2025 quantity to China was about 25% larger than the brand new quota set for this yr by the Chinese language authorities. Rounding out the highest 4, each South Korea and Japan elevated their consumption of Australian beef year-on-year and in comparison with the five-year common, however each noticed a lower in market share.
Brazil grew to become the world’s greatest beef producer in 2025, on the again of higher-than-expected output and lowered manufacturing by the earlier primary producer, the US. A lot of the worldwide beef commerce demand and pricing will hinge on whether or not manufacturing, and due to this fact exports, rise or fall in Brazil this yr. The USDA is predicting Brazilian manufacturing to fall by greater than 5% year-on-year in 2026, bringing whole beef output from the highest six producing nations 2.4% decrease.
