Highlights embrace coverage bulletins from the ECB, BoE, RBA, RBI, Banxico, US & Canada jobs knowledge, EZ flash inflation, PMI knowledge, OPEC assembly, ISM, Treasury QRA
Treasury Yield Curve
SUN: OPEC+ to carry a ministerial assembly.
MON: BoJ SOO (Jan); Ultimate Manufacturing PMIs (Jan); German Retail Gross sales (Dec); US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan); Treasury Financing Estimates.
TUE: RBA Announcement/SOMP; CBRT Inflation (Jan); French Prelim. CPI (Jan); US JOLTS (Dec)US JOLTS (Dec); RCM/TIPP (Feb); New Zealand Unemployment (This autumn).
WED: Riksbank Minutes (Jan); China PMIs (Jan); Ultimate Composite/Providers PMIs (Jan); EZ Flash HICP (Jan); US ADP (Jan); Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement; ISM Providers (Jan); Manufacturing facility Orders (Dec).
THU: ECB Coverage Announcement; BoE Coverage Announcement & MPR; Banxico Announcement; German Manufacturing facility Orders (Dec); EZ Retail Gross sales (Dec); US Challenger Job Cuts (Jan); Weekly Jobless/Persevering with Claims.
FRI: RBI Coverage Announcement; Japanese Coincident/Main Index (Dec); Swedish CPIF prelim. (Jan); Swiss Unemployment (Jan), US Jobs Report (Jan); Canada Jobs Report (Jan), US Uni. of Michigan sentiment (Feb, prelim).
OPEC MEETING (SUN):
OPEC+ is extensively anticipated to maintain its pause on oil output will increase in place for March when eight key members meet on Sunday, after a pointy rebound in costs this month. Delegates instructed Reuters there’s little urge for food to vary coverage after Brent costs climbed by round 8% in January to above USD 70/bbl, supported by provide disruptions reasonably than demand. Bloomberg additionally studies expectations are for coverage to stay unchanged, with delegates saying there is no such thing as a rapid want to reply to latest geopolitical developments in Venezuela or Iran. Analysts cite lowered output in Kazakhstan—the place JPMorgan expects the Tengiz discipline to stay offline by January, pushing manufacturing effectively beneath regular ranges—as a key near-term assist for costs. Whereas dangers linked to Venezuela, Iran and broader geopolitical tensions stay in focus, sources say a significant provide shock can be wanted for OPEC+ to revisit its present stance.
CHINA PMI (SAT-WED):
Chinaʼs January PMI launch run begins with the official NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing surveys on Saturday (thirty first January), adopted by Caixin Manufacturing on Monday (2nd February) and Caixin Providers on Wednesday (4th February). Consensus factors to a modest carry-over from late-2025 momentum, although analysts warn that Lunar New 12 months timing might add seasonal noise. The official manufacturing PMI is seen edging as much as 50.2 from 50.1, preserving exercise simply in growth, whereas non-manufacturing is anticipated to pick-up to 50.8 from 50.2. Markets are more likely to concentrate on whether or not manufacturing stays above the 50 threshold, with any slip again into contraction elevating doubts over Decemberʼs restoration. Consideration will even be on subindices, the place “new high quality productive forces”—notably high-tech manufacturing akin to AI, EVs and semiconductors—are anticipated to stay the primary assist. Offsetting this, the property sector continues to be seen as a fabric drag on the composite image into Q1, pointing to uneven momentum regardless of pockets of resilience
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BOJ SOO (MON):
The BoJʼs Abstract of Opinions follows the January coverage assembly, at which the central financial institution saved its short-term coverage charge unchanged at 0.75% in an 8-1 vote, with Hajime Takata dissenting in favour of a 25bps charge hike. The BoJ reiterated that it will proceed to lift charges if its financial and value outlook is realised, whereas upgrading development forecasts for FY25 and FY26 to 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively, reflecting the influence of presidency stimulus. Inflation projections have been largely maintained, other than a modest carry to the FY26 core CPI view. At his post-meeting press convention, Governor Ueda mentioned monetary situations stay accommodative and that the results of Decemberʼs tightening will take time to filter by the financial system. He flagged the weak JPY as a possible upside threat to costs by way of import prices, expressed some unease over the tempo of rises in long-term yields, and reaffirmed the central bankʼs readiness to conduct nimble market operations to handle any irregular strikes. Ueda additionally highlighted April value developments as an vital enter for future coverage selections, underscoring that policymakers are putting higher weight on underlying inflation dynamics, that are shifting nearer to, however aren’t but firmly anchored at, the two% goal. The SOO shall be watched for any potential hawkish nuances, though focus could also be tempered by latest FX intervention considerations and home political developments.
US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (MON), ISM SERVICES PMI (WED):
As a foundation for comparability, S&P Globalʼs flash US Manufacturing rose to a two-month excessive of 51.9 (prev. 51.8) in January. Manufacturing output development accelerated to a five-month excessive and outpaced providers, although new orders rose solely barely after Decemberʼs decline, signalling still-soft underlying demand. Export orders fell on the quickest tempo since final April, inventories of completed items continued to construct, and employment development weakened. Enter prices and manufacturing facility gate costs rose sharply, largely attributed to tariffs and better uncooked materials prices. In the meantime, for the providers sector, S&P Globalʼs flash US Providers PMI enterprise exercise index was unchanged at 52.5 in January. Providers exercise noticed a stable rise in January, however development was unchanged from Decemberʼs eight-month low, and it remained beneath common regardless of larger new enterprise inflows. Export demand weakened sharply, with providers exports falling on the quickest charge since November 2022. Employment development was marginal, backlogs rose primarily in providers, and enter price inflation cooled, permitting providers value inflation to average amid intensifying competitors. S&P mentioned that “the survey is signalling annualised GDP development of 1.5% for each December and January, and a worryingly subdued charge of recent enterprise development throughout each manufacturing and providers provides additional to indicators that first quarter development might disappoint,” including that “elevated prices, extensively blamed on tariffs, are once more cited as a key driver of upper costs for each items and providers in January, that means inflation and affordability stays a widespread concern amongst companies.”
RBA POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (TUE):
The RBA will maintain its first coverage assembly of 2026, and is anticipated to lift charges for the primary time in additional than two years from the present 3.60%. A latest Reuters ballot confirmed 24 of 31 economists surveyed anticipate a 25bps hike to three.85%, whereas seven forecast no change. The RBA saved its money charge unchanged in December for a 3rd straight assembly, as anticipated, in a unanimous determination. The assertion signalled that the central financial institution stays data-dependent, and contained no main surprises; nevertheless, a hawkish tone emerged within the post-meeting press convention. Governor Michele Bullock mentioned it appeared additional charge cuts weren’t wanted, and {that a} minimize was not thought-about at that assembly, whereas the board mentioned circumstances below which tightening could be required, though a hike was not explicitly debated at that assembly. She mentioned persistent inflation would elevate coverage questions, with out placing a timeline on any transfer, and reiterated a meeting-by-meeting strategy. Bullock additionally mentioned she didn’t see charge cuts within the foreseeable future, including that the outlook was for an prolonged pause or hikes, and flagged inflation and jobs knowledge as key inputs for the February assembly. Current knowledge helps the case for a hike, with all 4 main Australian banks now forecasting a February enhance. Employment rebounded in December, rising by 65.2K versus expectations of 30K after a previous fall of 21.3K, whereas the unemployment charge unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.3%, towards forecasts of 4.4%. Month-to-month CPI for December got here in firmer than anticipated at 3.8% versus forecasts of three.6%, whereas headline fourth-quarter CPI matched estimates; however the RBAʼs most popular trimmed imply measure exceeded forecasts and remained above the 2-3% goal vary.
EUROZONE INFLATION (WED):
For January, accessible Eurozone knowledge confirmed a marked moderation in Spainʼs inflation charge to 2.4% Y/Y from 2.9%, whereas Germanyʼs HICP edged as much as 2.1% Y/Y from 2.0%, though it’s price noting that Januaryʼs sequence integrated a number of adjustments to Germanyʼs HICP that will have influenced the end result. Total, the steadiness of dangers factors to the Eurozone HICP ticking up from Decemberʼs 1.9% Y/Y studying, probably again in direction of the two.1% degree seen in November. Whereas this might stay inside a well-recognized vary, it will be above the ECBʼs 1.9% forecast for 2026 as a complete. This provides to the argument, alongside the latest energy of the Euro, that the ECBʼs evaluation of being in a “good place” could not maintain all through 2026 as present market pricing implies, and that, opposite to pricing which suggests round 10bps of easing this yr, upside inflation dangers skew the eventual transfer in direction of a charge hike.
US TREASURY QUARTERLY REFUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT (WED):
Barclays expects the Treasury to reaffirm steering to maintain nominal coupon and FRN public sale sizes unchanged for a number of quarters, implying no coupon will increase in 2026. This might create a roughly USD 700bln funding hole, which might largely be met by way of T-bill issuance, with the Fed absorbing about USD 500bln, leaving manageable personal issuance in 2026 however rising pressures in 2027, the financial institution writes. The Treasury is exploring SOFR-indexed FRNs, having sought vendor suggestions and beforehand consulted on the thought. Barclays says that demand seems robust, given development in company SOFR FRNs and cash fund holdings. Barclays believes the market might take up no less than USD 200bln in first-year issuance, making a 2027 launch believable to assist handle future funding wants. Elsewhere, merchants shall be watching the 7yr sector; within the Treasuryʼs Major Seller Assembly Agenda for Q1, it mentioned that it was contemplating shifting the 7yr notice to a quarterly new-issue cycle with two reopenings, just like the 10yr; this would scale back the variety of 7yr CUSIPs over time, leading to fewer however bigger particular person points. The Treasury requested sellers what results might such a change have on firmsʼ capacity to make markets and supply liquidity within the Treasury market. NOTE: forward of the Wednesday refunding announcement, the Treasury on Monday will present its financing estimates, giving us a glimpse on what to anticipate from the QRA.
BOE POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (THU):
The Financial institution of England is anticipated to maintain its Financial institution Charge unchanged at 3.75% at its February assembly, with a near-unanimous consensus within the newest Reuters ballot pointing to a maintain. Focus shall be on the vote cut up and steering after the MPC was sharply divided in December, voting 5-4 to decrease charges, and amid indicators of firmer exercise, together with the strongest private-sector enterprise development since April 2024 and resilient retail gross sales. Reuters polling reveals solely a slim majority of economists now anticipate a 25bps minimize in March, with confidence in near-term easing having ebbed as inflation stays the best amongst G7 friends, and wage development stays elevated. Pantheon Macroeconomics expects a 6-3 vote to carry coverage, with Alan Taylor, Dave Ramsden and Swati Dhingra seen favouring a 25bps discount, arguing the choice itself is a foregone conclusion, and that steering is more likely to proceed signalling a “gradual downward path” for charges, albeit with longer gaps between cuts than seen in 2025. Pantheon additionally expects up to date forecasts to look comparatively hawkish, with inflation projected to stay above goal on the two- and three-year horizons, even because the November Finances measures decrease near-term inflation. “All instructed, we predict the market is correct to completely value just one extra charge minimize this yr, with an opportunity of hikes beginning early in 2027,” Pantheon mentioned.
ECB POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (THU):
The ECB is anticipated to take care of coverage settings, preserving its deposit charge at 2.00%. Decemberʼs assembly reaffirmed a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent strategy, with its assertion and the post-meeting press convention with President Christine Lagarde saying that coverage was in a “good place”. Shortly after the assembly, sourced studies echoed that view, whereas stressing {that a} charge minimize remained an possibility if wanted. Since then, officers have largely caught to the “good place” message, with Chief Economist Philip Lane saying there’s “no near-term rate of interest debate,” whereas its markets chief Isabel Schnabel clarified that there can be no change within the “foreseeable future,” after earlier feedback on tightening sparked a hawkish response in Euro property. The principle exception was Lithuaniaʼs Gediminas Simkus, who mentioned coverage suits the second and charges are on maintain for now, however past February, the trail is much less clear. Past charges, the Euroʼs energy since mid-January has been a key speaking level, and is more likely to function within the press convention. Merchants will look to Lagardeʼs post-meeting presser for clues on the timing and course of the subsequent transfer, although she is unlikely to be forthcoming
BANXICO POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (THU):
Banxico is anticipated to undertake a cautious stance at its February coverage assembly. Minutes from its December confab level to assist for a pause, with policymakers flagging commerce uncertainty, new import tariffs and better particular taxes as near-term inflation dangers, regardless of viewing their influence as largely short-term. Core inflation stays above goal, whereas headline inflation has eased. Though Decemberʼs 25bps minimize to 7.00% was justified by inflation progress, weak development and a powerful MXN, a number of argued for a wait-and-see strategy. Analysts more and more see a maintain as the marginally extra possible consequence, because the financial institution assesses whether or not these tax, tariff and wage shocks generate second-round results, earlier than resuming easing.
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RBI POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (FRI):
The RBI is anticipated to go away charges unchanged. A latest Reuters ballot confirmed 59 of 70 economists anticipate the financial coverage committee to maintain the repurchase charge at 5.25%. The RBI minimize the speed by 25bps to five.25% at its December assembly, as anticipated, in a unanimous determination, whereas retaining a impartial stance regardless of dovish dissent from MPC member Ram Singh, who argued for a shift to an accommodative stance. Governor Sanjay Malhotra mentioned the financial system had seen fast disinflation and described situations as a uncommon “Goldilocks” interval, whereas noting that geopolitical and commerce uncertainties have been weighing on the outlook. He mentioned development was anticipated to melt considerably, coverage house existed to assist momentum, and headline inflation had eased considerably, with the decline turning into extra broad-based, though some main indicators confirmed indicators of weak point. The language recommended additional coverage motion couldn’t be dominated out, even after cumulative cuts of 125bps final yr. Client inflation remained subdued in December, with CPI at 1.33% versus expectations of 1.5%, up from 0.71% beforehand. Whereas inflation has rebounded from the file low of 0.25% in October, it stays beneath the RBIʼs 2-6% tolerance band.
US JOBS REPORT (FRI):
Current jobs market knowledge has proven stability within the face of different coverage challenges. Within the week that corresponds with the BLS survey window for gathering the roles knowledge, weekly preliminary jobless claims remained low at 210k after revisions; that compares to 224k heading into the December knowledge. In the meantime, persevering with claims eased to 1.827mln within the survey week vs 1.914mln into the December knowledge. “There is no such thing as a proof that layoffs are choosing up. There are corporations which are making an attempt to cut back their headcount, however that is being finished virtually completely by attrition reasonably than outright job cuts,” Santander mentioned, “layoffs on an underlying foundation are roughly regular.” Wells Fargo expects the January jobs report to go away the labour market image broadly unchanged, with payroll development of round 80k and unemployment regular at 4.4%. It says that hiring could also be briefly boosted by fewer seasonal layoffs. Dangers to unemployment are seen to the upside, nevertheless, whereas benchmark revisions are more likely to present final yearʼs job development was weaker, reinforcing a gradual cooling in labour market assist for incomes and consumption. At this weekʼs confab, the Fed tweaked its threat characterisation on the labour market, changing “job features have slowed this yr, and the unemployment charge has edged up by September,” to “Job features have remained low, and the unemployment charge has proven some indicators of stabilisation,” which analysts mentioned was a optimistic improve to the language. Nonetheless, Chair Powell mentioned that dangers to employment on each the upside and draw back have diminished however not disappeared, making it laborious to evaluate whether or not mandate dangers are totally balanced. Merchants will even be watching if there’s any influence of utmost climate situations on the information. Oxford Economics mentioned “Weʼve beforehand proven storms that happen through the payroll reference interval have traditionally had a higher unfavourable impact on the web change in nonfarm employment and hours labored as poor climate prevents individuals from reaching work,” noting that development payrolls are significantly delicate,” however OxEco provides that “this storm is happening exterior this era, which ought to mute the potential draw back impacts to the January employment report.”
CANADIAN JOBS REPORT (FRI):
At its coverage assembly this week, the Financial institution of Canada softened its language across the labour market; in December, it mentioned that the labour market was “displaying some indicators of enchancment,” noting that “stable features” have been seen in employment over the previous three months, and the unemployment charge declined to six.5%, including that weak point was confined primarily to trade-sensitive sectors, with subdued hiring intentions. In its January assertion, nevertheless, it mentioned that employment has “risen in latest months” (eradicating reference to “stable”), and it now describes the unemployment charge now as “elevated at 6.8%,” including that fewer companies plan to rent extra employees. Finally, the BoC held charges for a second consecutive assembly at 2.25%, stating that corporations want time to regulate to US tariffs whereas hiring stays weak, and heightened uncertainty makes the timing and course of the subsequent coverage transfer laborious to foretell.
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