In farm bale phrases, the January AWTA core take a look at volumes had been down 20.9% (go to the wonderful AWTA webpage for particulars (see extra right here) with dealer receivals confirming the magnitude of this fall. Season-to-date quantity is down 10.6%, which is lower than the total season AWPFC projection (see extra right here) of 12.6% at this stage, with 56.6% of the clip usually examined by January. To satisfy the AWPFC forecast, wool volumes for February via June might want to fall 15% 12 months on 12 months.
Month-to-month volumes can fluctuate resulting from seasonal circumstances and holidays (Easter drifts between March and April). To get round this, it’s simpler to take a look at three-month smoothed volumes and the modifications in these volumes. Determine 1 breaks the Australian clip into Western Australia and the east, year-on-year proportion modifications within the rolling three-month volumes by micron class. In Western Australia, seasonal circumstances have been higher, seen within the swing broader by fibre diameter. Sub-19 micron volumes are properly down, and the broader merino micron classes are properly up. In distinction, jap volumes are all down, reflecting the downward strain on sheep numbers, each merino and non-merino.
Determine 2 repeats the evaluation of Determine 1, wanting on the change in farm bales fairly than proportion phrases. This schematic reveals how the swing broader in Western Australia is having an outsize impact on the change in quantity for 17 via 20 micron.
Lastly, in Determine 3, the rolling three-month smoothed change in quantity for jap and Western Australia is proven from 2018 onwards, together with a weighted 12-month rainfall rank. Wool manufacturing has a a lot higher probability of accelerating when the rainfall rank is excessive (elevated sheep numbers and elevated clear fleece weights), with the reverse additionally true. The weighted rainfall rank has oscillated between 30% and 40% throughout 2024 and 2025, not as dangerous as 2018–2019 when the rainfall rank ranged between 10% and 20%. Nonetheless, like all averages, the rainfall rank combines affordable seasons in Western Australia and northern NSW/Queensland with very dry circumstances for the Riverina and southwards. As well as, 2024 into 2025 was a interval of low wool costs and sheep meat costs rising to report ranges, a mix which has put excessive downward strain on flock measurement.
Whether or not AWTA volumes fall by 15% for the February to June interval goes to rely primarily on sheep numbers, as seasonal circumstances and the change in fibre diameter point out a gentle drop in clear fleece weights. The merino common fibre diameter for January was down 0.15 micron, indicating a fall in clear fleece weight of round 3%. This suggests the flock measurement must be down by 12% (already) if the AWPFC is to be met.
