Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that China’s This autumn 2025 present account surplus hit a document USD 242 billion, or 4.9% of GDP, reinforcing the view that the Yuan stays tightly managed. Robust international direct funding and certain official purchases of international bonds recommend authorities are actively steering capital flows whereas awaiting extra detailed portfolio information.
Document surplus and capital stream patterns
“On Friday, nevertheless, the steadiness of funds information for the fourth quarter of 2025 was launched, and it appears to substantiate our assumption that the forex continues to be very tightly managed.”
“In absolute phrases, China’s present account surplus reached a brand new all-time excessive of USD 242 billion within the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, this could come as no shock given the already identified export information.”
“It is usually fascinating to notice that international direct funding in China rose considerably once more to USD 38.8 billion, reaching its highest stage for the reason that starting of 2022.”
“As solely preliminary figures have been introduced on Friday, the figures for portfolio investments are nonetheless pending, however the optimistic growth of the inventory markets in China within the fourth quarter doesn’t recommend that international buyers have withdrawn capital from the nation on a big scale.”
“As we have now typically described, we suspect that the Chinese language banking sector is intervening within the forex market and shopping for international bonds.”
(This text was created with the assistance of an Synthetic Intelligence device and reviewed by an editor.)
