March arabica espresso (KCH26) on Friday closed up +0.40 (+0.13%), and March ICE robusta espresso (RMH26) closed up +24 (+0.63%).
Espresso costs moved greater for a second day on Friday, with robusta posting a 1-week excessive. Â This week’s droop in espresso costs to 6-month lows has sparked shopping for curiosity from espresso roasters, pushing costs greater, as they search to rebuild low inventories. Â
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Espresso costs have been beneath stress over the previous 2 weeks, with robusta espresso falling to a 6-month low on Wednesday and arabica espresso falling to a 6-month low on Monday amid indicators of a bumper Brazilian espresso crop. Â Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting company, stated final Thursday that Brazil’s 2026 espresso manufacturing will climb +17.2% y/y to a file 66.2 million luggage, with arabica manufacturing up +23.2% y/y to 44.1 million luggage and robusta manufacturing up +6.3% y/y to 22.1 million luggage.
Additionally, enough rain in Brazil has improved the outlook for the nation’s espresso crop. Â On Monday, arabica fell to a 6-month low as considerations over dry situations in Brazil eased when Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing space, Minas Gerais, acquired 72.6 mm of rain throughout the week ended February 6, or 113% of the historic common.
Hovering espresso exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta costs. Â Vietnam’s Nationwide Statistics Workplace reported Friday that Vietnam’s Jan espresso exports surged +38.3% y/y to 198,000 MT. Â Vietnam’s 2025 espresso exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Â
Elevated Vietnamese espresso provides are unfavorable for robusta costs. Â Vietnam’s 2025/26 espresso manufacturing is projected to climb +6% y/y to 1.76 MMT, or 29.4 million luggage, a 4-year excessive. Â
The restoration in ICE espresso inventories is unfavorable for costs. Â ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 luggage on November 18, however recovered to a 3.25-month excessive of 461,829 luggage on January 7. Â Additionally, ICE robusta espresso inventories fell to a 13-month low of 4,012 heaps on December 10 however recovered to a 2-month excessive of 4,662 heaps on January 26.
On the constructive facet for espresso, Brazil’s Commerce Ministry reported final Thursday that Brazil’s Jan espresso exports fell -42.4% y/y to 141,000 MT.
Smaller espresso provides from Colombia, the world’s second-largest arabica producer, are supportive of costs, following the Nationwide Federation of Espresso Growers’ report that January espresso manufacturing fell -34% y/y to 893,000 luggage.
Indicators of tighter world espresso provides are supportive of costs, because the Worldwide Espresso Group (ICO) on November 7 reported that world espresso exports for the present advertising and marketing 12 months (Oct-Sep) fell -0.3% y/y to 138.658 million luggage.
The USDA’s International Agriculture Service (FAS) bi-annual report on December 18 projected that world espresso manufacturing in 2025/26 will enhance by +2.0% y/y to a file 178.848 million luggage, with a -4.7% lower in arabica manufacturing to 95.515 million luggage and a +10.9% enhance in robusta manufacturing to 83.333 million luggage. Â FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 espresso manufacturing will decline by -3.1% y/y to 63 million luggage and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 espresso output will rise by 6.2% y/y to a 4-year excessive of 30.8 million luggage. Â FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending shares will fall by -5.4% to twenty.148 million luggage from 21.307 million luggage in 2024/25.Â
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