The scale of the sheep flock appears to be largely unknown in the meanwhile. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has launched an official quantity for the cattle inhabitants for June 30, 2024, in current weeks, however the sheep quantity remains to be below development.
The SPIS makes an attempt to place a quantity on breeding ewe numbers, and likewise surveys sheep producers on a variety of different components that may influence the flock going ahead. Producer sentiment can change rapidly, largely round worth, however sentiment round wool has been destructive since October 2023 and reached a brand new low in Could 2025, at a internet degree of -35. Sheepmeat business sentiment got here in at a two-and-a-half-year excessive of +52.
Taking sentiment into consideration, together with ovine slaughter charges, and what’s going on in WA, it was considerably stunning to see the SPIS peg breeding ewe numbers at 48.88 million head, up 2% on Could 2024.
Determine 1 must be considered with warning; the SPIS in its present type solely began in October 2022. Earlier than then, totally different methodologies possible gave totally different outcomes.
Determine 1 exhibits that regardless of the closely destructive sentiment across the Merino business, and a speedy flock discount in WA, Merino ewes for becoming a member of to Merino rams grew 5.6% from Could 2024 to 2025, and an enormous 15.7% from Could 2023.
The expansion in ‘different’ breeding ewes, primarily for lamb manufacturing, fell 4.2% from 2024 to 2025. This suits with the drought in Victoria and South Australia, the place meat breeds are extra concentrated.
The intentions a part of the survey asks producers whether or not they are going to be rising, lowering, or leaving breeding flocks unchanged. With 41% of producers anticipating to lower flocks, and solely 23% rising, the SPIS concluded there might be 9% fewer breeding ewes readily available in Could 2026.
