Highlights embrace US NFP, Retail Gross sales, ISM PMIs, OPEC, EZ Flash HICP, ECB Minutes and Australian GDP
Iran Worldwide
SUN: OPEC Assembly
MON: German Retail Gross sales (Jan), Last Manufacturing PMIs (Feb), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
TUE: Japanese Unemployment (Jan), EZ Flash HICP (Feb), US RCM/TIPP (Mar), UK Spring Assertion
WED: Australian GDP (This fall), Chinese language NBS PMIs (Feb), Swiss CPI (Feb), Last Composite/Providers PMIs (Feb), EZ Unemployment (Jan), PPI (Jan), US ISM Providers PMI (Feb)
THU: ECB Minutes (Feb); Australian Commerce Stability (Jan), Swedish CPIF prelim. (Feb), EZ Retail Gross sales (Jan), US Challenger (Feb), Export/Import Costs (Jan), Weekly Claims
FRI: German Manufacturing unit Orders (Jan), US NFP (Feb), US Retail Gross sales (Jan), Fitch on France, DBRS on Greece
OPEC MEETING (SUN): The eight core OPEC+ members – Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman – are resulting from meet on 1 March to determine whether or not to start unwinding their 2.2mln BPD of voluntary cuts from April or lengthen the present pause into Q2. Latest reporting by Bloomberg and Reuters suggests the group is leaning in the direction of resuming gradual output will increase, doubtlessly round 137k BPD from April, marking a shift from earlier expectations of a continued freeze. Brent crude has recovered to round USD 71/bbl, supported by geopolitical threat premia and provide disruptions, together with in Kazakhstan, giving the alliance higher scope so as to add barrels with out considerably undermining costs. The said rationale contains making ready for stronger summer time demand and permitting members such because the UAE to utilise expanded capability, whereas additionally managing market share in opposition to non-OPEC producers. Nevertheless, the choice stays data- and market-contingent, with delegates indicating {that a} sudden deterioration in situations might nonetheless immediate an extension of the pause.
US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (MON): As a foundation for comparability, the S&P International Flash US Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.2 in February, from 52.4 in January, a seven-month low, signalling softening demand however continued enlargement within the manufacturing sector. Output progress eased to its weakest since July, whereas new orders slipped barely for the second time in three months. Employment progress practically stalled amid weaker demand. Provider supply occasions lengthened markedly resulting from climate, shortages and tariff-related disruption, contributing to the sharpest fall in enter inventories in 13 months. Enter prices remained elevated, although output worth inflation moderated to a 14-month low as corporations discounted to help gross sales. Regardless of the slowdown, producers have been extra optimistic concerning the 12 months forward, with expectations rising to a 13-month excessive, though issues over tariffs and the broader political surroundings persevered.
UK SPRING STATEMENT (TUE): Chancellor Reeves will current her Spring fiscal replace from 12:00GMT adopted by OBR forecasts and the DMO remit. The federal government has modified the format so the OBR will solely assess the adherence to fiscal guidelines, i.e ‘headroomʼ and if debt might be falling as a share of nationwide revenue by the top of the time period, within the Autumn Price range. Regardless of this, the forecasts offered by the OBR imply it will likely be potential to estimate the headroom. In November 2025, headroom was GBP 21.7bln. Typically, desks anticipate it to stay roughly round this mark. The principle elements influencing it are more likely to be near-term funding for SEND, funding that may value GBP 3.4bln over three years, current yield strikes and up to date PSNB information. Chancellor Reeves has made clear that she desires this to be a non-event for markets, the FT quotes a minister as saying it will likely be a “very, very boring Spring Assertion…”; underscoring this, the speech is anticipated to final for not more than 20 minutes. A speech anticipated to be progrowth and adopted by one other speech later within the month. Apart from SEND, no new spending or tax changes are anticipated. Nevertheless, current reporting round a quicker path to three% defence spending and/or the coed mortgage scenario might characteristic, although the bottom case stays for nothing new. Alongside the OBR launch, the DMO will present its FY26/27 financing remit. The FY25/26 Gilt remit was GBP 303.7bln and Morgan Stanley expects this to drop to GBP 252bln for FY26/27. Inside that, the intently watched lengthy allocation is anticipated at round GBP 20bln, down from GBP 31.3bln within the prior interval. A remit that ought to help Gilts.
Supply: Strive Newsquawk free for 7 days
EZ FLASH HICP (TUE): A have a look at regional inflation metrics forward of the euro zone HICP exhibits French and Spanish readings barely above expectations, whereas Germany was beneath expectations. Following the metrics, Oxford Economics see headline inflation Y/Y ticking increased to 1.8%. Januaryʼs HICP Y/Y stood at 1.7% (2.0% in Dec., 2.5% in Janʼ25), remaining barely under the ECB workers projection of 1.9%. Regardless of the inflation charge operating under goal, the ECB doesn’t seem in a rush to chop charges, with President Lagarde just lately saying that “inflation and coverage stay in place”, feedback broadly echoed by different officers. As such, this launch is unlikely to materially have an effect on near-term coverage, although analysts at Oxford Economics say, “dangers are tilted in the direction of extra charge cuts”. The agency provides that whereas their baseline is for regular charges, additional deterioration in inflation or exercise might immediate policymakers to chop charges.
AUSTRALIAN GDP (WED): Westpac expects This fall 2025 GDP to rebound strongly, forecasting progress of 0.9% Q/Q (vary 0.7-1.1%), lifting annual progress to 2.4%. The desk sees Q3ʼs softer 0.4% studying as noise, with This fall energy reflecting a rebound in exercise. Excessive-frequency indicators, together with family spending, credit score progress and capability utilisation, strengthened by means of the December quarter, pointing to stable momentum into year-end. Draw back dangers embrace a 0.1% fall in complete development work achieved in This fall, pushed by a 4.0% drop in public infrastructure, whereas softer partial labour market indicators could have modestly weighed on exercise late in 2025. Total, Westpacʼs nowcast factors to a marked pickup in progress heading into 2026.
CHINESE NBS PMI (WED): Februaryʼs official NBS Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to stay near the 50.0 threshold, with forecasts round 49.5-50.0 (prev. 49.3), as Lunar New 12 months distortions weigh on exercise resulting from manufacturing facility closures and survey timing results across the 17 February vacation. Januaryʼs information confirmed Manufacturing at 49.3 and Non-Manufacturing at 49.4, each in contraction territory amid weak home demand and continued drag from the property sector, whereas the Caixin Manufacturing PMI remained in enlargement at 50.3, highlighting the divergence between giant state-linked corporations and smaller export-oriented companies. Markets will watch whether or not vacation journey offered any help to companies, though residual seasonal noise could cloud the sign till the March information, with consideration additionally on the upcoming Caixin launch for clues on exterior demand momentum. SWISS CPI (WED): UBS expects Swiss CPI (Y/Y) to print at 0.00% in February. Analysts say a dip under that degree would have restricted implications for the SNB, because the Financial institution would probably “proceed to look by means of” the information and push again in opposition to requires NIRP. SNB President Schlegel just lately maintained the SNBʼs 2026 inflation forecast at 0.3%, regardless of Januaryʼs studying of 0.1% Y/Y and -0.1% M/M, pushed by decrease electrical energy and lodging costs. Februaryʼs information precedes the March SNB assembly, the place charges are anticipated to be held at 0.00%, with policymakers persevering with to emphasize that the bar for a return to NIRP is excessive.
US ISM SERVICES PMI (WED) : The S&P International Flash US Providers PMI Enterprise Exercise index fell to 52.3 in February, from 52.7 in January, a 10-month low however nonetheless signalling enlargement. Progress in new enterprise softened, although remained optimistic, whereas export orders declined sharply. Employment rose solely marginally as corporations cited subdued demand and elevated prices. Backlogs of labor elevated on the quickest tempo since Might 2022, partly reflecting capability constraints and climate disruption. Enter value inflation remained elevated, with companies promoting costs rising to a seven-month excessive. In the meantime, enterprise expectations improved to a 13- month excessive, though general confidence remained barely under its long-run common.
ECB MINUTES (THU): The ECB will publish the Financial Coverage Accounts from the 5 February assembly, at which the Governing Council left charges unchanged, and reiterated a data-dependent stance. At that assembly, President Lagarde mentioned disinflation was broadly on monitor, with headline inflation projected to common round 1.9% in 2026, however flagged that companies inflation stays elevated and wage progress should reasonable additional earlier than coverage will be eased extra decisively. The accounts might be scrutinised for the diploma of confidence within the disinflation course of amid current EUR strikes, inner debate over companies worth stickiness, and the way shut policymakers imagine they’re to chopping charges. Markets can even look ahead to dialogue of wage dynamics, the transmission of previous tightening, and whether or not the Council sees dangers as balanced forward of the 19 March assembly, which is able to embrace up to date workers projections.
SWEDISH CPIF (THU): SEB expects CPIF Y/Y at 1.7% (Riksbank forecast 1.3%, earlier 2% Y/Y). Analysts anticipate core CPIF Y/Y to ease from 1.7% to 1.4%, undershooting the Riksbankʼs 1.7% forecast. As a reminder, the January inflation stunned to the draw back, led by stress in core companies. One other set of dovish inflation readings might immediate markets to start pricing in a near-term lower, with markets at present assigning a forty five% probability of a transfer in Spring/Summer season. Nonetheless, SEB maintains its name for regular charges over the long run, saying policymakers seem targeted on long-term inflation expectations. Nevertheless, analysts argue that if the Financial institution have been to ship a charge discount, it will be seen as “fine-tuning” slightly than the beginning of a brand new chopping cycle.
US RETAIL SALES (FRI): Januaryʼs retail gross sales information might be weighed in opposition to indicators of resilient client spending firstly of the 12 months. BofAʼs client checkpoint information confirmed complete card spending rose 2.6% Y/Y in January, versus 1.8% Y/Y in its December report, marking the strongest tempo in practically two years regardless of weather-related disruptions. The financial institution flagged persistent incomebased divergence in spending and wage progress, warning of a “Ok” form between higher- and middle-income households, alongside the prevailing hole with lower-income teams. It mentioned households have been broadly adaptive and financially steady, navigating affordability pressures by buying and selling down, sustaining elevated financial savings and drawing on obtainable borrowing capability. Greater tax refunds are additionally seen as a possible near-term help for client spending.
US JOBS REPORT (FRI): The February jobs report might be regarded to to see whether or not Januaryʼs stronger-than-expected 130k payroll achieve and the drop in unemployment to 4.3% marked a turning level, or was a one-off. Consensus expectations are for payroll progress of 70-90k, above the estimated 50k breakeven tempo. Some analysts anticipate unemployment to edge increased, citing potential volatility within the family survey after Januaryʼs surge in employment, whereas the Chicago Fedʼs February labour market indicators mannequin is monitoring unemployment at 4.28%, broadly consistent with Januaryʼs official 4.3% charge. Weekly preliminary jobless claims have been regular over the comparable survey durations, whereas persevering with claims rose barely. The Convention Board reported a modest enchancment in labour market perceptions, with the labour market differential rising. On coverage, Fed officers view the labour market as steady and resilient, having cooled steadily and now displaying indicators of stabilising. With unemployment low, layoffs subdued and vacancies regular, officialsʼ focus seems to have shifted extra in the direction of inflation dynamics. A number of have careworn the necessity for clearer proof that worth pressures, significantly in core companies, are returning to focus on earlier than contemplating additional charge cuts.
Supply: Strive Newsquawk free for 7 days
Copyright © 2026 Newsquawk Voice Restricted. All rights reserved. Registered Workplace One Love Lane, London, EC2V 7JN, United Kingdom · Registered Quantity 12020774 · Registered in England and Wales. newsquawk.com · +44 20 3582 2778 · [email protected]
