(WO) – Missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial Metropolis are anticipated to have a protracted impression on international LNG provide, with restoration timelines now more likely to prolong nicely past preliminary expectations, in line with new evaluation from Wooden Mackenzie.
The assaults broken key infrastructure, together with the Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) facility and a number of LNG trains, following earlier disruptions that had already halted manufacturing. Qatar declared drive majeure in early March, eradicating roughly 80 MMtpa of LNG provide—practically 20% of world availability—from the market.
Early projections had assumed a comparatively swift restart, with full manufacturing ramping up inside weeks. Nonetheless, Wooden Mackenzie now expects a considerably longer restoration interval, relying on the extent of injury and required repairs.
A chronic outage might materially tighten international fuel markets. Qatar produced a mean of 6.7 MMt of LNG per 30 days in 2025, that means even a five- to six-month disruption would push international provide into year-on-year decline. Every further month of downtime might take away roughly 1.5% of annual LNG availability.
The disruption additionally threatens to delay Qatar’s North Subject East enlargement, which was anticipated so as to add 32 MMtpa of capability. Any slippage into 2027 or past might constrain international LNG provide development by 2028.
Asian patrons, which account for roughly 90% of Qatar’s LNG exports, are anticipated to be most affected, with demand more likely to weaken amid larger costs. In Europe, diminished LNG availability might restrict storage injections and speed up gasoline switching.
Operators globally are anticipated to defer upkeep and maximize output the place doable, as markets alter to diminished provide and heightened geopolitical threat.
Map supply: International Power Infrastructure.
