Many components are actually pointing in direction of the standard turn-off versus rebuild feminine slaughter fee determine of 47% as now not essentially correct at depicting nationwide cattle herd intentions (2025 common was 53%). There’s little doubt that the record-territory slaughter and manufacturing in 2025 and now forecast for 2026 will push numbers decrease. In September, MLA forecast this 12 months’s herd quantity to be 31.01 million head, a dip of 0.1% on final 12 months. The determine has now dropped to 30.78 million, a fall of 1%. Nonetheless a comparatively small decline given turn-off, however it’s in the long run when it begins to play out. The forecast for 2028 is now 7% decrease than 2025.
Present pretty steady herd numbers are being supported by optimistic seasonal situations in a lot of Northern Australia, nearly totally offsetting the drought situations having been skilled throughout South Australia, Victoria and NSW and ensuing of their herd’s shrinking. The inventory turn-off ratio – all cattle slaughtered or exported dwell comparative to herd dimension – is anticipated to rise 1% to 33% in 2026 and stay above the long-term common of 28% for no less than till 2028. Somewhat than the standard excessive herd numbers or seasonal situations which are likely to induce a turn-off – which after all is the case in some areas – sustained sturdy cow costs because of the shortfall within the US has enticed extra females onto the market.
There have been 9.28 million head of cattle slaughtered in 2025, and the forecast is for that determine to climb to 9.45 million this 12 months as sturdy costs and constant record-level cattle on feed turn-off help throughput. Because the herd contracts, so will slaughter however extra considerably, dropping by about 600,000 head subsequent 12 months and being 13% decrease by 2028. Reside cattle exports for this 12 months have been revised considerably decrease because the September launch (705,000 head now in comparison with 781,000 head then), however remained the identical for 2027, and are anticipated to rise 1% by 2028 to their highest stage since 2020.Â
