Goldman cuts Q2 oil to $90/$87, keeps $82/$80 Brent and $77/$75 WTI outlook

Goldman cuts near-term oil outlook as danger premium fades however retains longer-term view.

Abstract:

Goldman cuts Q2 oil forecasts

Brent/WTI seen at $90/$87 in Q2

Pushed by lowered geopolitical danger premium

Early indicators of Hormuz flows enhancing

Entrance-end oil curve repricing decrease

Again-end forecasts unchanged

Brent: $82/$80 (Q3/This fall)

WTI: $77/$75 (Q3/This fall)

Structural supply-demand nonetheless supportive

Distinction between short-term vs long-term outlook

Goldman Sachs has lowered its near-term oil worth forecasts, citing a discount in geopolitical danger premia and early indicators that crude flows via the Strait of Hormuz are starting to get better.

The financial institution now expects Brent and WTI to common $90 and $87 per barrel respectively within the second quarter, marking a downgrade from earlier projections as front-end pricing adjusts to easing tensions following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

Goldman mentioned the shift displays a compression within the danger premium embedded in oil markets, significantly on the entrance of the futures curve, the place costs had surged on fears of extended disruption to Center Japanese provide. Current developments, together with tentative enhancements in transport flows via the Strait of Hormuz, have helped mood these considerations.

Nonetheless, the financial institution maintained a extra cautious longer-term outlook, leaving its forecasts for the second half of 2026 unchanged. Goldman continues to see Brent at $82/$80 and WTI at $77/$75 throughout the third and fourth quarters, suggesting that whereas near-term dangers have eased, the broader supply-demand stability stays intact.