Highlights embody US CPI and Retail Gross sales, UK CPI and Jobs report, China commerce and GDP, Aussie Jobs, and CPI from Canada and Japan.
Newsquawk Week Forward: Highlights 14-18th July 2025
MON: EU 90-Day Retaliatory Pause Ends; Indian WPI (Jun), Chinese language Commerce Stability (Jun)
TUE: OPEC MOMR; Chinese language Home Costs (Jun), Retail Gross sales (Jun), GDP (Q2), German WPI (Jun), EZ Industrial Manufacturing (Could), German ZEW (Jun), US CPI (Jun), NY Fed Manufacturing (Jul), Canadian CPI (Jun)
WED: UK CPI (Jun), EZ Commerce (Could), US PPI (Jun), Industrial Manufacturing (Jun)
THU: Japanese Commerce Stability (Jun), Australian Unemployment (Jun), UK Unemployment & Wages (Could), EZ Closing HICP (Jun), US Export/Import Costs (Jun), Weekly Claims, Philadelphia Fed (Jul), Retail Gross sales (Jun)
FRI: Japanese CPI (Jun), German Producer Costs (Jun), US Constructing Permits/Housing Begins (Jun), Uni. of Michigan Prelim.(Jul)
Newsquawk Week Forward: Highlights 14-18th July 2025
CHINESE TRADE BALANCE (MON): There are presently no central expectations for the Chinese language June Commerce Stability, though the metrics do encapsulate the 90-day commerce settlement between the US and China on Could twelfth. Utilizing the latest Caixin June PMIs as a proxy, the commentary recommended, “Based on panellists, higher commerce situations and promotional actions supported a contemporary rise in new orders. The speed of recent order development was solely marginal, nonetheless, as exterior demand remained muted. New export orders declined for the third month in a row in June, albeit at a noticeably weaker tempo than in Could. Nevertheless, the commentary added, “provide chain situations continued to deteriorate on the finish of the second quarter, as Chinese language producers skilled supply delays once more in June.” Analysts at ING anticipated a modest uptick in export and import development, suggesting that “Early indicators are that there isnʼt a lot commerce frontloading exercise throughout the tariff ceasefire interval to this point.”
Newsquawk Week Forward: Highlights 14-18th July 2025
CHINESE GDP/RETAIL SALES/HOUSE PRICES (TUE): The main target will probably be on Chinaʼs Q2 GDP, with the most recent Reuters ballot forecasting Q2 Y/Y development at 5.1% (vs 5.4% in Q1) and Q/Q at 0.9% (vs 1.2% in Q1). The YTD Y/Y charge is seen at 5.6% (prev. 5.8%). The ballot additionally forecast 2025 GDP development at 4.6% vs Chinaʼs goal of “round 5%”. Analysts be aware that whereas headline development is more likely to hit the 5% annual goal, issues persist round underlying home demand, employment, and deflationary pressures. ING highlights that ecent onerous information has been blended, with retail gross sales stunning to the upside however industrial manufacturing and funding softening. On housing, two straight months of notable value declines have raised hypothesis about potential actual property stimulus, with markets watching the housing value launch for additional indicators of a downturn. Word, on July tenth, the gauge of Chinese language property shares posted the most important achieve in 9 months amid hypothesis {that a} high-level assembly will probably be held subsequent week to assist revive the property sector, in keeping with Bloomberg. SCMP flags that rising exterior uncertainties—particularly new US tariffs—might immediate requires extra proactive fiscal coverage. Nonetheless, economists recommend that Beijing is unlikely to deploy main stimulus until export development slows extra sharply, as policymakers seem centered on assembly however not exceeding the 5% goal, in keeping with the article. When it comes to financial coverage forecasts, the aforementioned Reuters ballot additionally recommended that the PBoC is predicted to chop 1yr LPR by 10bps in This fall, and RRR is predicted to be lower by 10bps in This fall.
Newsquawk Week Forward: Highlights 14-18th July 2025
CANADIAN CPI (TUE): With the BoC on pause and avoiding ahead steerage, the central financial institution is taking it meeting-by-meeting on account of financial uncertainty. The upcoming inflation report will assist form expectations for BoC easing. Cash markets are solely pricing in a single additional charge lower by the tip of the yr. The prior BoC assertion in June highlighted how, excluding taxes, inflation was barely stronger than the BoC anticipated, whereas the BoC’s most popular measures moved up. It additionally highlighted that “current surveys point out that households proceed to count on that tariffs will elevate costs and plenty of companies say they intend to go on the prices of upper tariffs”. The following BoC assembly is on July thirtieth, and the steerage from the BoC famous they “will proceed to evaluate the timing and power of each the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economic system and the upward pressures on inflation from greater prices”, including it’s continuing rigorously. In the meantime, in a current speech, Macklem warned that “underlying inflation could possibly be firmer than we thought”. Nevertheless, if inflation pressures have been contained, the BoC agreed there could possibly be a necessity for an additional lower within the coverage charge. The issue the BoC faces is that there could possibly be a slowdown in inflation as a result of tariff impression on the labour market and financial development, however on the similar time, upward stress could possibly be seen as a result of implementation of tariffs. The BoC will probably be monitoring upcoming inflation experiences to gauge what method costs are being pushed earlier than dictating financial coverage. ”
Newsquawk Week Forward: Highlights 14-18th July 2025
US CPI (TUE): The consensus expects US CPI to rise by 0.3% M/M in June, selecting up in tempo vs the +0.1% in Could; core CPI can also be anticipated to rise by +0.3% M/M in June after the +0.1% in Could. Wells Fargo says the information is more likely to present inflation starting to strengthen once more, albeit not sufficient to alarm Fed officers at this stage. It stated that “amid a softer labour market and companies inflation dissipating a bit extra, the pickup in core inflation stemming from tariffs is more likely to look extra like a bump than a spike.” The information will probably be framed within the context of how US tariff coverage is impacting costs, and the consequential knock-on onto Fed coverage. Most Fed officers have taken a cautious strategy on the outlook for charges, given expectations that client costs are anticipated to rise in the direction of the tip of the yr on account of tariff results. Nevertheless, some (Bowman and Waller) have recommended that the tariff-induced value rises may be a one-off and would due to this fact permit officers to take a look at charge cuts as quickly because the July assembly if inflation pressures stay contained. Cash markets, nonetheless, don’t see this materialising, and are presently pricing a sub-5% likelihood that the Fed will cut back charges on July thirtieth; via the tip of the yr, markets are nonetheless totally pricing two 25bps reductions, in line with the Fed’s personal projections.
UK CPI (WED): Expectations are for headline Y/Y CPI to rise to three.5% from 3.4% with the core Y/Y charge seen holding regular at 3.5%. As a reminder, the Could report noticed headline Y/Y CPI slip to three.4% (matching the MPC forecast) from 3.5%, core decline to three.5% from 3.8% and companies fall to 4.7% from 5.4% because the Easter-driven increase seen within the April information unwound. This time round, analysts at Oxford Economics, who maintain a below-consensus view of three.4% for headline Y/Y CPI, count on a collection of offsetting forces. Particularly, they anticipate that “modest upward stress from a smaller drag from the petrol class and base results within the core items class will probably be counterbalanced by softer companies inflation”. From a coverage perspective, the discharge will probably underscore the robust balancing act put earlier than the MPC, whereby development seems to be slowing, the labour market is loosening, however inflation is cussed and is about to stay the case. Because it stands, an August lower is priced at 78% for the August assembly, with a complete of 52bps of loosening seen by year-end.
AUSTRALIAN JOBS REPORT (THU): The Australian labour power information for June comes after Mayʼs shock 2.5k drop in employment, which adopted a pointy April achieve (+87.6k). Westpac expects a +30k rise in June employment (vs market forecast of +20k), with underlying three-month common jobs development holding regular at 2.3% Y/Y—matching late 2024 ranges and signalling ongoing labour market resilience. The participation charge dipped to 67.0% in Could however is forecast to edge again to 67.1% in June, supporting the view that the unemployment charge will maintain at 4.1% for a fifth straight month, in keeping with the desk. Total, Westpac notes that job development stays sturdy beneath month-to-month volatility, with labour market situations nonetheless regular regardless of current swings.
Newsquawk Week Forward: Highlights 14-18th July 2025
UK JOBS (THU): Expectations are for the ILO unemployment charge within the 3-month interval to Could to carry regular at 4.6% with headline earnings (ex-bonus) 3M/YY set to drag again to five.0% from 5.2%. As a reminder, the prior report confirmed a big contraction in HMRC payrolls change (-109k vs. prev. -55k) for Could, the unemployment charge within the 3M interval to April rose to 4.6% from 4.5% and headline earnings 3M/YY slipped to five.3% from 5.6%. This time round, analysts at Investec proceed to flag the information high quality issues which have been plaguing the labour market report; nonetheless, they count on employment development to sluggish on account of their estimates “that vacancies and extra well timed PAYE employment figures have lately softened, and at an rising tempo”. Word, markets may also be maintaining a tally of any upward revision to final monthʼs HMRC payrolls print. On the pay entrance, the desk additionally notes indicators of current weak spot and expects additional softness within the upcoming report, including that “there are useful base results rom now decrease wage settlements coming via in contrast with greater pay offers a yr in the past”. From a coverage perspective, the likes of Bailey and Ramsden have famous the softening within the labour market. Nevertheless, there hasnʼt been a lot in the way in which of comms from the MPC to brace markets for a rise within the tempo of charge cuts from its present cadence of each different assembly. Word, the impression of the discharge will must be taken within the context of the inflation information due out the day earlier than.
US RETAIL SALES (THU): Analysts count on US retail gross sales to be unchanged in June, with the consensus predicting +0.0% M/M from a previous -0.9%; the ex-autos measure is seen rising +0.3% M/M vs a previous -0.3%. Financial institution of America’s month-to-month client checkpoint information means that there was an general rise of +0.7% M/M in June, although companies spending is seen slipping for a 3rd straight month. Its aggregated bank card information confirmed that credit score and debit card spending per family was up +0.2% Y/Y in June (vs +0.8% Y/Y in Could), and seasonally adjusted, spending per family rose +0.3% M/M, solely partially unwinding the month-to-month declines of 0.2% and 0.7% in April and Could. BofA stated, “it seems shoppers are pulling again on some areas of discretionary companies spending, although this cooling doesn’t presently seem broad-based.” BofA did be aware, nonetheless, that lower-income households’ spending development is especially gentle, with complete card spending development unfavorable on an annualised foundation within the three months to June; “these households even have the weakest after-tax wage development in Financial institution of America deposit information,” however the spending and wage development of higher-income households seems to have risen.
JAPANESE CPI (FRI): There are presently no median market expectations for the June CPI, however the information follows Mayʼs 3.7% Y/Y rise within the core index—a greater than two-year excessive and nicely above the BoJʼs 2% goal. ING expects the discharge to point out a slight easing of inflation pressures, pushed by authorities caps on power and meals costs, although the headline continues to be seen staying above 3%. Final monthʼs report famous that persistent meals inflation and companies passing on greater labour prices saved value development elevated, whereas service-sector inflation continued to speed up. BoJ policymakers stay divided on the outlook, balancing upside inflation dangers towards exterior headwinds from US tariffs.
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Newsquawk Week Forward: Highlights 14-18th July 2025
