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Home Trading News Forex

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 28th July-1st August 2025

July 27, 2025
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Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 28th July-1st August 2025
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Highlights embrace Commerce talks and deadlines, Fed, BoJ, BoC, US NFP, Mfg PMI, PCE, QRA, EZ CPI & GDP and Aussie CPI

 

Newsquawk Week Forward: Highlights twenty eighth July-1st August 2025

MON: US Dallas Fed (Jul), German GfK (Aug)

TUE: US Shopper Confidence (Jul), JOLTS (Jun)

WED: FOMC & BoC Coverage Bulletins; ECB Wage Tracker, Australian CPI (Jun/Q2), German Retail Gross sales (Jun), Swiss KOF (Jul), EZ Flash Prelim. GDP (Q2), US ADP (Jul), GDP Advance (Q2), PCE Advance (Q2), Pending House Gross sales (Jun)

THU: BoJ & SARB Coverage Bulletins; Chinese language NBS PMIs (Jul), Australian Retail Gross sales (Jun), Export/Import Costs (Q2), German Unemployment (Jul), French & German Flash CPI (Jul), US PCE (Jun), Weekly Claims, Canadian GDP (Might)

FRI: EZ Manufacturing PMI Finals (Jul), EZ CPI (Jul), US Jobs Report (Jul), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul), College ofb vMichigan Survey (Jul), Swiss vacation, US Tariff Deadline

US-CHINA TRADE TALKS (MON/TUE): Chinese language Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday to hunt an extension of the 90‑day US–China tariff truce that expires August twelfth. For the reason that Geneva and London conferences earlier this yr, the truce has lowered triple‑digit duties; with out a deal, tariffs would revert to 145% on US imports and 125% on Chinese language items. Bessent, who mentioned in a single day that commerce with China is in a “superb place,” desires Beijing to curb extra manufacturing, increase shopper demand and focus on Chinese language purchases of sanctioned Russian oil. In earlier talks, China agreed to raise export bans on uncommon earths and magnets whereas the US restarted shipments of semiconductor design software program and plane components. Beijing has signalled cooperation by suspending an antitrust probe into DuPont China earlier this week and emphasising “mutual respect and win‑win cooperation”. Bessent earlier this week, prompt they may do a rolling 90-day deadline when requested a few deadline with China – such an consequence will doubtless increase sentiment, permitting extra time for talks with no escalations.

QUARTERLY FINANCING ESTIMATES/REFUNDING (MON/WED) : The Quarterly Financing estimates can be launched on Monday at 20:00 BST / 15:00 EDT. The prior financing estimates confirmed that the Treasury expects to borrow USD 554bln in privately-held internet marketable debt through the July-September 2025 quarter, assuming an end-of-September money steadiness of USD 850bln. This compares to Q2’s (April-June) USD 514bln anticipated. The Quarterly Refunding can be introduced on Wednesday at 13:30BST/08:30 EDT. The prior steerage was left unchanged to recommend the “Treasury anticipates sustaining nominal coupon and FRN public sale sizes for at the very least the subsequent a number of quarters.”. As all the time, any change to this might be key, however Wells Fargo expects this to be left unchanged. Given the distaste for the present excessive long-end charges from the Trump administration, Bessent has beforehand mentioned it is senseless to time period out the debt at these charge ranges. As a substitute, the Treasury has been boosting invoice issuance to cowl funding wants in current weeks. Wells Fargo expects invoice provide to proceed to ramp up within the close to time period, projecting internet T-bill issuance of USD 475bln in Q3, USD 142bln in This fall and USD 416bln in Q1-26. The desk additionally estimates T-bills as a share of the Treasury market will climb to 22.5% by year-end 2027 vs 21.9% by the tip of 2024. Wanting forward, Wells Fargo’s new base case is that coupon public sale dimension will increase will are available in February 2027.

FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): The consensus seems for the FOMC to carry charges at between 4.25-4.50% on July Thirtieth, an consequence predicted by all 105 economists surveyed by Reuters. Some policymakers, together with Governors Waller and Bowman, have advocated for a charge reduce (the previous cited proof of labour market weakening, and argued that the Fed ought to reduce now as an alternative of ready), and that raises the potential of some dissent on the assembly. Analysts at Morgan Stanley search for each to dissent on the assembly, favouring a 25bps charge discount. Different policymakers have remained cautious and data-dependent within the face of potential inflation linked to tariffs, in addition to political strain from US President Trump to scale back charges. Forward, nearly all of economists surveyed see attainable charge cuts in September, although expectations for cuts this yr have barely diminished. Most anticipate one or two cuts in 2025. Elements that may affect the Fed’s decision-making embrace commerce uncertainty, inflation dangers from tariffs and elevated fiscal spending; moreover, the central financial institution could make efforts to claim its independence amid rising political interference. On the post-meeting press convention, Chair Powell will doubtless be closely quizzed on his position; President Trump has already prompt that he can be nominating a brand new Fed Chair earlier than Powell’s time period expires in Might 2026, although has seemingly backed away from the concept of firing him earlier than it ends. Main candidates to switch Powell are mentioned to incorporate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh (who not too long ago closely criticised the Fed, and argued that charges needs to be decrease), Governor Waller, in addition to White Home Advisor Hasset and Treasury Secretary Bessent. Powell can even be requested about whether or not he intends to serve his time period as Governor after his time period as Chair expires — historically, Fed Chairs have stepped down from the position after the time period as Chair expires; nevertheless, some recommend that Powell could want to serve his remaining Governor time period to be able to assert the central financial institution’sindependence. Morgan Stanley expects Powell’s message to be consistent with a ‘wait-and-see’ strategy, emphasising that financial coverage is ‘effectively positioned’ to see how the economic system evolves. It says that “it’s an extended method to September. The Fed wants extra time to find out how the economic system is evolving versus its objectives.” The financial institution itself sees the US economic system can be additional away from the Fed’s value stability mandate than full employment and expects no charge cuts this yr, in distinction to the consensus view, the place cash markets are pricing in an honest likelihood of two cuts this yr.

US GDP (WED): The advance studying of GDP in Q2 is predicted to indicate development of two.5% (from the prior -0.5%), in accordance toReuters. On the time of writing, the Atlanta Fedʼs GDPnow monitoring estimate for the quarter is modelling development of two.4%. In June (finish of Q2), S&P Globalʼs PMI information prompt that the US service sector reported sustained development, and seen alongside enchancment in manufacturing development, signifies that the economic system grew at an affordable annualised charge in Q2, with momentum having improved following Aprilʼs lull. That mentioned, S&P World mentioned it was “seeing some worrying indicators of weak point beneath the headline numbers,” and factors out exports and falling exercise amongst consumer-facing service suppliers, which has curbed the general tempo of financial enlargement. “Issues over authorities insurance policies have in the meantime created uncertainty and dampened spending on providers extra broadly, whereas additionally making certain confidence within the outlook stays subdued in comparison with the optimism seen at first of the yr.” The July PMI report famous the Q2 information was per a 1.3% annualised development charge.

 

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AUSTRALIAN CPI (WED): Aussie CPI for Q2 is predicted at 0.8% Q/Q (prev. 0.9%), with the Trimmed Imply forecast unchanged at 0.7% Q/Q. Analysts at Westpac additionally pencil in a 0.9% Q/Q print for headline CPI, noting upside contributions from rents, electrical energy, clothes, and fruit & greens, whereas falling gasoline and family gasoline present partial offsets. Regardless of Mayʼs Month-to-month CPI Indicator falling –0.4%—bigger than anticipated—Westpacʼs overview of the info led them to reaffirm their 0.9% quarterly name, albeit with recognised draw back dangers. For core inflation, Westpacʼs nearcast mannequin for the Trimmed Imply sits at 0.66%, implying a larger chance of a 0.6% than a 0.8% print, versus the RBAʼs 0.55% forecast. The annual Trimmed Imply is seen easing to 2.7% Y/Y (prev. 2.9%), nonetheless barely above the RBAʼs implied annual goal of +2.6%. Markets at present value an 86% likelihood of a 25bps reduce following the maintain in July, with above 57bps of cuts at present priced in until year-end.

EZ Q2 GDP (WED): Expectations are for Q2 Q/Q development to return in flat vs. the Q1 enlargement of 0.6%. The Y/Y charge is predicted to gradual to 1.2% from 1.6%. As a reminder, the Q1 launch confirmed Q/Q development of 0.4% vs. the This fall 2024 outturn of 0.2%. Nevertheless, the uptick in development was largely attributed to front-loading of purchases within the US forward of anticipated tariff bulletins from the Trump administration. This time round, analysts at Investec are of the view that Q1ʼs buoyant efficiency is unlikely to persist into Q2. The desk holds a below-consensus view of -0.3% Q/Q, stating that “month-to-month information for April and Might have already pointed to some payback”. Including that, as with the Q1 launch, the Q2 report can be topic to trade-related distortions. As such, the anticipated gentle outturn is unlikely to characterize the “begin of a interval of persistent weak point” – the desk seems for a return to development in Q3 and a gradual strengthening thereafter. From a coverage perspective, a gentle print will doubtless be largely missed given the aforementioned commerce distortions and with larger concentrate on the result of EU-US commerce talks forward of the August 1st negotiation deadline.

BOC ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): The BoC is predicted to go away charges unchanged on the upcoming assembly, with the BoC prone to pass over ahead steerage once more given uncertainties to the economic system. The Financial Coverage report can be eyed to see how the financial institution expects Trump’s tariffs to impression the Canadian economic system primarily based on the present commerce atmosphere. The coverage charge of two.75% stays on the midpoint of the BoC’s nominal impartial charge estimate (between 2.25-3.25%). This limits room for extra charge cuts, except the economic system had been to deteriorate within the face of commerce tensions. Macklem, in June, had prompt that charge cuts can be wanted if the results of tariffs and uncertainty continued to unfold by way of the economic system and value pressures had been contained. Nevertheless, current information noticed inflation stay in direction of the top-end of the BoC’s goal, whereas the labour market state of affairs improved – dimming the prospects for near-term charge cuts. Cash markets are solely pricing in 14bps of additional easing by year-end, implying a 56% likelihood of yet another charge reduce this yr, however any deterioration in commerce relations may even see a charge reduce priced with extra certainty and vice versa, relying on how the economic system unfolds. The current outlook surveys confirmed indicators of optimism and enchancment; nevertheless, regardless of the continuing uncertainties, with the worst-case situations from Q1 much less prone to happen, whereas enterprise expectations on short-term inflation have returned to ranges seen on the finish of 2024. Nevertheless, the patron survey declined as spending intentions weakened additional as a result of persistent threats of tariffs and associated uncertainty. Consumersʼ short-term inflation expectations have modified little since rising markedly in Q1 2025.

US PCE (THU): Each headline and core PCE are anticipated to rise by +0.3% M/M in June (from 0.1% M/M and 0.2% M/M, respectively, in Might). Writing after the June CPI and PPI studies, Pantheon Macroeconomics forecast that headline PCE can have elevated by +0.32% M/M, whereas core PCE can have risen by 0.30% M/M. “This could characterize an acceleration relative to Might, with nearly all of the underlying elements displaying accelerated prints, and particularly, we anticipate a drag from power costs to be offset by firming in meals inflation and the core.” Its economists say that the gentle trajectory of month-to-month core inflation going into June is poised for additional firming within the coming months. “Though airfares and lodging costs stay on downward trajectories, we doubt that this is usually a sustained supply of disinflation within the coming months,” including that “in the meantime, monetary providers costs have now firmed following the post-Liberation Day swoon.” Crucially, Pantheon expects cost-push pressures from tariffs to accentuate within the coming months, which ought to push core items PCE larger. The Fedʼs June forecasts estimate an increase in headline PCE inflation to three.0% this yr, whereas the core charge is seen rising to three.1%, earlier than cooling in 2026. Most Fed officers, aside from Governors Waller and Bowman, have taken a cautious line on charge reductions, arguing that the tariff impression on inflation stays unsure, however has the potential to push up shopper costs. Waller, nevertheless, has been arguing for charge cuts, primarily based on proof of a weakening within the labour market.

BOJ ANNOUNCEMENT (THU): The Financial institution of Japan will maintain a two-day coverage on July Thirtieth-Thirty first, the place the central financial institution is predicted to keep up its short-term rate of interest at 0.50%. A current Reuters ballot confirmed 60 out of 72 economists surveyed forecast the BoJ to chorus from any charge changes for the subsequent two conferences by way of to September, whereas cash market charges are pricing a 99% chance the central financial institution retains charges unchanged. The BoJ can even launch its newest Outlook Report containing board members’ median forecasts for Actual GDP and Core CPI. The Financial institution of Japan have shunned any charge changes because it final hiked charges in January, though it introduced on the prior assembly in June it’s to scale back the quantity of month-to-month JGB purchases by about JPY 200bln every quarter from April 2026 onward. It famous this resolution was made to enhance the functioning of the JGB markets in a fashion that helps stability within the markets. Moreover, Governor Ueda said following the assembly that they are going to proceed to hike charges if the economic system and costs enhance, with the central financial institution to be guided from the perspective of sustainably and stably assembly the value goal. He additionally said {that a} additional hike relies on the chance of accomplishing the BoJ’s outlook, and the timing of such a transfer relies on the knowledge of the outlook, however added it’s not acceptable to touch upon near-term hike potentialities, and a charge hike resolution would must be primarily based on plenty of information and issues. Since then, there have been current main developments regarding Japan, which policymakers would wish to contemplate when deciding on charges: 1) The higher home election, the place the ruling coalition suffered a scathing loss and failed to realize a majority. This raises political uncertainty and strain for the federal government to hearken to opposition partiesʼ requires fiscal loosening, though PM Ishiba is seemingly seeking to stay in place and denies studies of a attainable resignation. 2) Commerce developments have supplied optimism after the US and Japan reached a commerce deal involving a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the US, which is decrease than the earlier risk of a 25% tariff charge. Nonetheless, these developments are unlikely to spur any speedy coverage response from the central financial institution and a supply report by way of Bloomberg famous the BoJ sees little impression from the election on the speed stance however sees upward value dangers if there may be massive fiscal loosening and was looking forward to commerce speak impression earlier than any hikes. Additional sources (by way of Bloomberg) on Friday prompt

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