Is the silver market on the point of an enormous squeeze?
That’s the query rattling round investing circles after a viral Twitter thread — highlighted in Mike Maloney’s current video — claimed that silver deliveries are exploding, LBMA reserves are scraping the underside, lease charges are spiking, and premiums in China are going wild.
In his newest deep dive, Alan Hibbard from GoldSilver separates hype from actuality — fact-checking every declare with arduous information from COMEX, LBMA, and Bloomberg. Whereas some numbers don’t maintain up, the general image nonetheless factors to 1 factor: silver’s fundamentals are the tightest they’ve been in a long time.
Let’s break down what’s actual, what’s overblown, and why Alan says his subsequent funding is extra silver.
Declare #1: COMEX Silver Deliveries Exploding to 2 Million Ounces Per Day
The viral declare: Bodily deliveries on COMEX have “exploded” to just about 2 million ounces per day — matching international day by day manufacturing and signaling a coming provide squeeze.
The actual fact-check: Alan pulled the official COMEX information. Whereas deliveries are certainly wholesome in 2025, they’re nowhere close to 2 million ounces day by day.
Whole month-to-month deliveries lately hit 45 million ounces — which averages to about 1.5 million per day in peak supply durations, however the remainder of the month drops nearer to underneath 1 million per day. The large spikes happen initially of supply months, adopted by slower trickles — not an ongoing surge.
Conclusion: Deliveries are robust, however not unprecedented. The “2 million ounces/day” determine doesn’t match official information.
Declare #2: LBMA Silver Reserves Critically Low – Solely 155 Million Ounces Free Float
The viral declare: The London Bullion Market Affiliation (LBMA) is down to simply 155 million ounces of freely accessible silver — the bottom in recorded historical past.
The actual fact-check: The LBMA’s personal revealed information reveals about 760 million ounces in complete vault holdings. Nevertheless, the overwhelming majority backs silver ETFs and different allotted holdings, making them unavailable for spot settlement.
Subtracting these leaves about 155 million ounces of “free float” silver — the quantity cited by TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali.
Annual silver demand is roughly 1.2 billion ounces (Silver Institute), which means the LBMA’s free float is barely sufficient to cowl about six weeks of world demand.
Conclusion: This one checks out. Whether or not or not it’s “lowest in historical past” depends upon the way you measure it, however provide is undeniably tight.
Declare #3: Silver Lease Charges Spiking Over 6%
The viral declare: Silver lease charges—what it prices to borrow bodily silver — are surging above 6%, signaling extreme tightness available in the market.
The actual fact-check: Bloomberg information confirms it: one-month silver lease charges have spiked above 6% a number of instances in 2025. For context, regular charges are close to zero.
This repeated surge is extraordinarily uncommon and is usually an indication that bodily metallic is in excessive demand and quick provide.
Conclusion: 100% true — and a serious crimson flag for a brewing provide crunch.
Declare #4: Chinese language Panda Coin Premiums Going Wild
The viral declare: In Beijing’s Madan market, sellers are shopping for again 1983 27g Panda silver cash for 1.72 million yuan (~$239,000) — equal to $27,000 per ounce.
The actual fact-check: Alan looked for any media protection and got here up empty. When he contacted the unique Twitter poster, they cited an anecdote from a vendor within the Czech Republic.
Whereas uncommon collector cash can fetch excessive premiums, this seems to be an remoted, numismatic-driven value — not a market-wide phenomenon.
Conclusion: Attention-grabbing, however not a dependable sign of broader silver value motion.
Declare #5: Speculative Capital Flooding In
The viral declare: Retail and institutional traders are piling into silver because of tight provide, booming industrial demand, and no extra mining capability — creating an ideal setup for a structural breakout.
The actual fact-check: Whereas capital inflows are tougher to measure in real-time, Alan agrees with the thesis. Silver stays traditionally undervalued in comparison with gold, industrial demand is hovering (particularly for photo voltaic and electronics), and mining provide development is flat.
Conclusion: Essentially sound — silver’s setup is extraordinarily bullish.
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What It All Means for Buyers
Alan’s backside line? Even when some viral claims are exaggerated, the core story is plain:
Bodily silver availability is traditionally tight. Lease charges are flashing warning indicators of stress. Industrial demand development is colliding with stagnant mining provide.
That mixture might set off a structural breakout — ending a long time of value suppression and probably sending silver sharply greater.
Alan’s subsequent transfer? Purchase extra silver — and he’s doing it at GoldSilver.
Key Takeaways
COMEX deliveries: Wholesome, however not on the claimed 2 million ounces/day. LBMA free float: Round 155M ounces — solely six weeks of provide at present demand. Lease charges: Spiking above 6%, a transparent stress sign. Chinese language coin premiums: Possible remoted, not a market-wide development. General outlook: Silver stays some of the engaging property for 2025.
Able to place forward of the squeeze? Begin constructing your silver stack at this time at GoldSilver — earlier than the breakout hits.
