Once we say out of the blue, the potential for worth rises within the younger cattle market has been constructing for a while. Determine 1 exhibits that since recovering from the doldrums of spring and summer time of 2023–24, younger cattle costs have been comparatively regular. When in comparison with the volatility of 2019–2024, younger cattle costs in 2024 and the primary half of 2025 have been exceptionally regular.
Regular costs imply provide is assembly demand, however with the drawdown within the southern breeding flock there was all the time going to be some extent the place provide weakened, and sustained demand drove costs increased. This level arrived in mid-July, and it has seen younger cattle costs acquire 20%. Whole positive factors for younger cattle since January equate to 36%, and it stays to be seen if the rally is completed.
Final week, weaner steers made up near 25% of Meat and Livestock Australia’s ‘On-line Younger Cattle Indicator’ (OYCI), at a mean worth of 547.60¢/kg lwt. We’ll use 550¢/kg lwt as a place to begin for our commerce.
Feeder and completed cattle costs have additionally rallied within the final month, however to a lesser extent. The NSW Feeder Steer Indicator (Determine 2) has gained 13% since mid-July however has had a gradual climb within the 12 months to July, the entire acquire now at 40%.
We will see in Determine 2 that the height feeder steer worth again in 2022 was round 575¢/kg lwt. Present feeder costs are inside 15% of the height, so it’s not far-off. We must always be aware, nonetheless, that the benchmark beef export worth, the 90CL Frozen Cow Indicator, is 200¢ increased than it was in 2022.
Determine 3 exhibits a primary buying and selling funds for purchasing weaners now and promoting feeders at varied costs in 4 to 6 months, or nonetheless lengthy it takes to get them to weight. We will see why younger cattle costs are on the transfer. The margins on buying and selling younger inventory are good at these increased feeder costs, when weaner purchase values will not be too far above the feeder worth. In 2022, grass fever drove weaner costs to 750¢/kg lwt, a 180¢ premium to feeder values.
Word that this commerce calculation doesn’t embody feed, freight, remedies, or administrative prices. These will differ between enterprises and needs to be assessed individually when contemplating any commerce.
