Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights : 25th-29th August 2025

Highlights embody US PCE, PBoC MLF, Minutes from ECB & RBA, Australian CPI, Japan Tokyo CPI, and Canada GDP

Newsquawk Week Forward Highlights : Twenty fifth-Twenty ninth August 2025

MON: PBoC MLF, UK Summer time Financial institution Vacation, German Ifo (Aug), US Nationwide Exercise (Jul)

TUE: RBA Minutes, Riksbank Minutes, NBH Announcement, US CaseShiller (Jun)

WED: Australian CPI (Jul), Swiss Investor Sentiment (Aug)

THU: ECB Minutes, Swiss GDP (Q2), EZ Sentiment Survey (Aug), US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q2), US PCE (Q2)

FRI: Japanese Tokyo CPI (Aug), Japanese Exercise Knowledge (Jul), German Retail Gross sales (Jul), French Prelim CPI (Aug), Spanish Flash CPI (Aug), German Unemployment (Aug), US PCE (Jul), Canadian GDP (Q2), College of Michigan Remaining (Aug)

PBOC MLF (MON): PBoC left the Mortgage Prime Charges unchanged for the third straight month—1-year at 3.00% and 5-year at 3.50%, matching full market consensus. Knowledge continues to level to sluggish exercise—manufacturing facility output, retail gross sales, and new mortgage volumes stay weak. Policymakers are leaning on focused structural instruments, not broad-rate cuts, at the same time as deflationary and credit-growth dangers persist. Markets anticipate a maintain on the MLF price, in step with the unchanged LPR. It was additionally reported that the PBoC to inject CNY 600bln by way of one-year MLF loans on August Twenty fifth. ING notes, “The Peopleʼs Financial institution of China hasnʼt made any changes to the 7- day reverse repo this month. Slightly than direct price cuts, policymakers just lately moved to help credit score exercise in additional focused methods, with subsidies for shopper loans set to come back into impact in September.”

RBA MINUTES (TUE): RBA will launch the Minutes from its August Eleventh-Twelfth assembly, the place it supplied no surprises and delivered a unanimously anticipated 25bps price reduce to decrease the Money Fee to three.60% with the central financial institution’s resolution unanimous. RBA reiterated ts language that inflation has continued to reasonable and the outlook stays unsure, in addition to famous that sustaining value stability and full employment is the precedence. RBA said that underlying inflation will proceed to reasonable to across the midpoint of the two–3% vary, with the money price assumed to comply with a gradual easing path, and it famous that financial coverage is effectively positioned to reply decisively to worldwide developments if they’ve materials implications for exercise and inflation in Australia. Moreover, it said the reduce was attributable to underlying inflation persevering with to say no again in direction of the midpoint of the two–3% vary and labour market situations easing barely. The central financial institution additionally concurrently launched its Quarterly Assertion on Financial Coverage which confirmed a downgrade to the estimate of Australiaʼs long-run productiveness development to 0.7% from 1.0% and with pattern GDP development now seen round 2.0%, down from 2.25%, whereas its forecasts have been based mostly on a technical assumption of the money price at 3.4% by end-2025, 2.9% by end-2026, and three.1% by end-2027. Moreover, RBA Governor Bullock continued to sign future cuts throughout the post-meeting press convention, the place she said there have been no discussions of a bigger price reduce, however famous that forecasts indicate the Money Fee may should be decrease for value stability, whereas she added the Board will take issues assembly by assembly and didn’t rule out back-to-back price cuts.

RIKSBANK MINUTES (TUE): Riksbank maintained its charges at 2.00%, in step with expectations. When it comes to future price coverage, the Financial institution highlighted that there’s “nonetheless some chance of an additional rate of interest reduce this yr” – this verbal steerage is in step with the present price path specified by June. As for current knowledge developments, the Financial institution highlighted that inflation has deviated “considerably” from the forecast in June – rising greater than anticipated, although it steered the upturn is because of momentary components. It additionally remained cautious on financial exercise, highlighting that development remained low and the labour market is just not but “displaying any clear signal of enhancing”. When it comes to analyst commentary, Danske Financial institution opines that ought to inflation develop in step with the Riksbankʼs forecast, it might “open the door” for a reduce in September. Analysts at SEB additionally put added give attention to inflation dynamics, specifically Augustʼs determine. Ought to that tick decrease, SEB sees a reduce in September, with one other later within the yr. Now we sit up for the Riksbank Minutes subsequent week, to see how “momentary” policymakers view inflation, and the way they steadiness inflation/exercise dynamics.

AUSTRALIAN CPI (WED): July Month-to-month CPI is anticipated to rise 0.5% M/M, lifting the annual price to 2.3% Y/Y (prev. 1.9%), in step with market consensus (vary 2.0–2.7%). June CPI printed at 0.2% M/M, 1.9% Y/Y, softer than each expectations and Westpacʼs forecast, with a shock -0.4% fall in electrical energy costs as retailers in some capitals reduce prices or boosted reductions, alongside a smaller-than-expected rebate unwind. Westpac highlights upside dangers to the July print, pointing to greater Default Market Supply (DMO) energy payments and the continued removing of rebates. The RBAʼs August SoMP projected headline inflation to climb above 3% in H2 earlier than easing again, largely pushed by electrical energy dynamics, with trimmed imply CPI at 2.7% Y/Y nonetheless on the prime finish of goal. Markets will give attention to whether or not July CPI confirms upside pressures or indicators a contained rebound. A stronger-than-expected print might push again RBA easing expectations, with electrical energy prices remaining the important thing swing issue. ASX 30 Day Interbank Money Fee Goal presently sees a 36% probability of a 25bps reduce on the thirtieth September assembly.

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NVIDIA EARNINGS (WED): Nvidia reviews quarterly earnings on Wednesday, twenty seventh August, at 21:20BST/16:20EDT, and whereas shut consideration can be on the quarterly metrics, individuals can be attentively specializing in any commentary surrounding the settlement struck with the US authorities that may see them take 15% of any China income. On this, KeyBanc expects Nvidia to publish robust July-quarter outcomes however might information cautiously for October attributable to China-related dangers. KeyBanc expects Nvidia to exclude China income from steerage amid pending license approvals, potential 15% AI export taxes, and strain on Chinese language corporations to make use of native chips. With out China, steerage might miss consensus, although KeyBanc estimates China might add USD 2-3bln in gross sales. Regardless of this, the basics for the tech behemoth stay robust, and as KeyBanc factors out GPU provide rose 40% final quarter and will develop one other 20% with Blackwell (B200) ramping, whereas the brand new Blackwell Extremely (B300) ships in October. Wanting on the expectations, Q2 EPS is anticipated at USD 0.99 with income printing at USD 45.50bln. Wanting on the breakdown, Knowledge Centre is seen at USD 40.25bln, Gaming 3.9bln, Automotive 595.40mln, Skilled Visualization 522mln, and OEM and different 112mln. Relating to another key metrics, the gross revenue margin is anticipated at 72% and working expense at 4bln. When it comes to ahead steerage, the subsequent quarter’s (Q3) income is seen at USD 52.59bln, with EPS of USD 1.19, with FY evenue seen at 201.39bln and EPS of 4.37.

ECB MINUTES (THU): As anticipated, the ECB stood pat on charges, protecting the deposit price at 2%. The accompanying coverage assertion carried little of curiosity, noting that incoming info is broadly in step with the Governing Councilʼs earlier evaluation of the inflation outlook. Moreover, the assertion repeated the Financial institution’s meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent method. On the followup press convention, when questioned concerning the current EUR appreciation and VP de Guindos’ current comment concerning the problems that EUR/USD breaching 1.20 would carry, President Lagarde said that the ECB doesn’t goal FX ranges however is monitoring the state of affairs. Thereafter, Bunds have been despatched decrease after Lagarde said that the ECB’s baseline state of affairs from June nonetheless holds regardless of US President Trump threatening the EU with a 30% tariff price. This assertion, allied with Lagarde reiterating that coverage stays in a very good place, is suggestive that policymakers will not be in a rush to regulate coverage. This level was additionally underscored by the President emphasising that the ECB won’t be swayed by a short lived undershoot in inflation (present 2026 forecast sees inflation at 1.6%), including that inflation remains to be anticipated to stabilise at goal over the medium time period. Observe, the choice was unanimous. Total, given the dearth of fireworks on the assembly and the data-watching method of the ECB, the account of the assembly will probably go with little in the best way of fanfare.

TOKYO CPI (FRI): Tokyo CPI for August is anticipated to sluggish to 2.6% Y/Y (prev. 2.9%), pushed by softer power costs, although recent meals stays agency. “Tremendous-core” inflation (ex. recent meals and power) is projected to remain above 3%, protecting underlying pressures elevated and reinforcing the BoJʼs case that costs are on a sustained path towards 2%. Markets will look ahead to stickiness in companies inflation, with upside surprises feeding into expectations for a gradual coverage shift. Markets presently value in no 25bps price hikes for this yr, with ~19bps baked in.

JAPANESE ACTIVITY DATA (FRI): July Industrial Manufacturing is seen at -1.2% M/M (prev. +2.1%), as tariff-related front-loading unwinds, though retail gross sales are anticipated to enhance on the again of wage development. Labour market situations stay tight, with the unemployment price regular at 2.5%. ING notes that resilient consumption and wage dynamics offset weak spot in exports and manufacturing, portray a blended image for Q3 momentum.

US PCE (FRI): Whereas CPI rose in step with expectations in July (headline +0.2% M/M, core +0.3% M/M), PPI surged (headline and core have been +0.9% M/M, above the anticipated +0.3%). Analysts famous that the PPI soar was pushed by portfolio administration costs, which got here because of inventory costs surging within the month, although air journey costs fell, whereas different parts within the knowledge that feed into core PCE (healthcare, insurance coverage) noticed solely reasonable will increase. Pantheon Macroeconomics stated that the rise in PPI has solely restricted implications for the July core PCE studying, however does recommend that the US tariffs are persevering with to generate value pressures within the provide chain, which customers will shoulder quickly. With the CPI and PPI readings in hand, Pantheon estimates that the core PCE deflator will rise by +0.26% M/M in July (vs 0.3% M/M in June), and this could raise the annual price to 2.9% Y/Y from 2.8%. The FOMC’s July assembly minutes, launched this week (the place virtually all individuals considered it as applicable to take care of charges between 4.25-4.5%), famous that individuals suppose that greater tariffs have been contributing to rising inflation, with items value inflation growing whereas companies value inflation slowed. Many anticipated corporations to go tariff prices to prospects, although present demand restricted full pass-through. Some noticed tariffs inflicting solely a one-time value stage rise, whereas others warned of persistently elevated inflation, troublesome to separate from underlying developments. On the time of writing (earlier than Powell’s speech at Jackson Gap), cash markets are pricing round a 70% probability the Fed will reduce charges by 25bps on September seventeenth, although, via to the finish of the yr, are roughly discounting two full 25bps reductions. The Fed’s June projections see core PCE rising to three.1% Y/Y in 2025, cooling to 2.4% in 2026, after which to 2.1% in 2027.

CANADIAN Q2 GDP (FRI): Might’s development knowledge confirmed GDP falling by 0.1% within the month, although StatsCan stated it’s projected to rebound +0.1% M/M in June, which ought to imply annualised development in Q2 was probably at round 0.1%, simply avoiding a contraction. The BoC is presently on maintain, and the most recent minutes revealed that some members felt they’d already supplied sufficient help for the economic system, however others felt extra help would probably be wanted. Since then, the most recent inflation report was barely softer than anticipated, and individuals began to barely enhance BoC price reduce bets with 24bps of easing priced by year-end, implying a 96% chance of a price reduce by year-end. The minutes famous that the economic system appeared to have contracted in Q2 after strong Q1 development. A lot of the front-running actions unwound in Q2, leading to a pointy drop in exports. The minutes additionally famous that general consumption and authorities spending seem to have elevated, whereas enterprise and residential funding seem to have declined. Wanting forward, the BoC estimates that within the present tariff state of affairs, financial development resumes in Q3 and inflation stays round 2%, whereas a de-escalation state of affairs would see development rebound in Q3 with inflation under 2%. Nonetheless, if tariffs have been to escalate, the economic system would fall into recession, and inflation would rise to 2.5%. Underneath all these forecasts, inflation is throughout the BoC’s 1-3% goal vary; subsequently, a drastic slowdown would probably embolden the case for additional price cuts from the BoC, with the board seemingly not too involved about inflation, significantly with current knowledge coming in on the softer aspect.

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