S&P 500 Posts a Record High on Nvidia Earnings Optimism

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday closed up by +0.24%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up by +0.32%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up by +0.17%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) rose +0.20%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) rose +0.13%. 

Inventory indexes recovered from early losses on Wednesday and settled greater, with the S&P 500 posting a brand new report excessive and the Nasdaq 100 reaching a one-week excessive.  Power in software program shares led the general market greater as MongoDB surged greater than +37% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS and elevating its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast.  

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Additionally, optimism that Nvidia will report stellar earnings outcomes after Wednesday’s shut boosted shares.  Over the past 5 years, Nvidia has solely missed on earnings in a single quarter.  With a $4.4 trillion market capitalization, Nvidia has an 8.1% weighting within the S&P 500, giving it important energy to affect the index. 

Shares prolonged their features Wednesday afternoon after bond yields gave up an early advance and turned decrease on expectations that the Fed would lower rates of interest as quickly as subsequent month.  The ten-year T-note yield fell -2 bp to 4.24%. 

Feedback right now from New York Fed President Williams have been impartial to barely dovish, as he said that the US financial system is slowing, not stalling, and he stays optimistic in regards to the financial system’s route.  He added that each FOMC assembly is “reside” for rates of interest and that sooner or later, it will likely be acceptable for us to regulate charges downward as we stay in a “modestly restrictive” stance on coverage.

US MBA mortgage purposes fell -0.5% within the week ended August 22, with the acquisition mortgage sub-index up +2.2% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -3.5%.  The common 30-year fastened price mortgage rose +1 bp to six.69% from 6.68% within the prior week.

Concerning tariffs, President Trump late Monday threatened to impose new tariffs and export restrictions on superior know-how and semiconductors in retaliation towards different nations’ digital providers taxes that hit American firms.  Final week, Mr. Trump widened metal and aluminum tariffs to incorporate greater than 400 shopper objects that include the metals, similar to bikes, auto components, furnishings elements, and tableware.  The change went into impact final Monday and didn’t exclude items already in transit.  

In different current tariff information, Mr. Trump on August 13 prolonged the tariff truce with China for one more 90 days till November.  On August 6, Mr. Trump introduced that he’ll double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the present 25% tariff, resulting from India’s purchases of Russian oil.  In accordance with Bloomberg Economics, the typical US tariff will rise to fifteen.2% if charges are carried out as introduced, up from 13.3% earlier, and considerably greater than the two.3% in 2024 earlier than the tariffs have been introduced.

The markets this week will deal with any contemporary tariff information or developments on ending the Ukraine-Russian struggle.  On Thursday, Q2 GDP is anticipated to be revised upward by +0.1 to three.1% (q/q annualized).  Additionally, weekly preliminary unemployment claims are anticipated to fall by -5,000 to 230,000.  On Friday, July private spending is anticipated to climb +0.3% m/m, and July private revenue is anticipated to rise +0.4% m/m.   Additionally, the July core PCE value index, the Fed’s most well-liked inflation gauge, is anticipated to climb +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y.  As well as, the Aug MNI Chicago PMI is anticipated to fall -0.6 to 46.5.  Lastly, the College of Michigan’s final-Aug US shopper sentiment index is anticipated to be unrevised at 58.6.

Federal funds futures costs are discounting the possibilities for a -25 bp price lower at 88% on the subsequent FOMC assembly on September 16-17.  The markets are discounting the possibilities at 51% for a second -25 bp price lower on the following assembly on October 28-29.

Earnings experiences point out that S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are on observe to rise +9.1% y/y, a lot better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y and probably the most in 4 years, in keeping with Bloomberg Intelligence.  With Q2 earnings season winding down, over 95% of S&P 500 corporations having reported Q2 earnings, about 82% of firms exceeded revenue estimates. 

Abroad inventory markets on Wednesday settled blended.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rebounded from a 2-week low and closed up +0.17%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -1.76%.  Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 closed up +0.30%.

Curiosity Charges

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU5) on Wednesday closed up +6.5 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield fell -2.4 bp to 4.238%. 

T-notes recovered from early losses on Wednesday and rallied to a 1.5-week excessive, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 4.234%. Brief protecting emerged in T-notes to push costs greater after New York Fed President Williams stated that sooner or later, it will likely be acceptable for us to maneuver charges down, as we’re nonetheless in a “modestly restrictive” stance on coverage.

T-notes initially moved decrease on Wednesday resulting from rising inflation expectations, following the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations price’s rise to a 6-month excessive of two.456%.  Weak demand for the Treasury’s $70 billion public sale of 5-year T-notes on Wednesday was additionally bearish for costs, because the public sale had a bid-to-cover ratio of two.36, beneath the 10-auction common of two.38.  As well as, T-notes are below strain resulting from President Trump’s transfer to fireplace Fed Governor Cook dinner, which exacerbates investor issues in regards to the Fed’s independence and fuels inflation fears if politics forces rates of interest beneath the impartial price. 

European authorities bond yields on Wednesday moved decrease.  The ten-year German bund yield fell to a 1.5-week low of two.686% and completed down -2.3 bp to 2.700%.  10-year UK gilt yield fell -0.5 bp to 4.736%.

The German Sep GfK shopper confidence survey unexpectedly fell -1.9 to a 5-month low of -23.6, weaker than expectations of no change at -21.5.

Swaps are discounting the possibilities at 3% for a -25 bp price lower by the ECB on the September 11 coverage assembly.

US Inventory Movers

MongoDB (MDB) closed up greater than +37% to guide software program shares greater after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.08, nicely above the consensus of 65 cents, and elevating its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to $3.64-$3.73 from a earlier forecast of $2.94-$3.12, stronger than the consensus of $3.20.  Additionally, Atlassian (TEAM) closed up greater than +4% to guide gainers within the Nasdaq 100, and Salesforce (CRM) closed up greater than +2% to guide gainers within the Dow Jones Industrials.  As well as, Datadog (DDOG) closed up greater than +4%, Cloudflare (NET) closed up greater than +3%, and Snowflake (SNOW) closed up greater than +2%. 

Kohl’s (KSS) closed up greater than +23% after reporting Q2 EPS of $1.35, nicely above the consensus of 31 cents, and forecasting full-year EPS of fifty cents-80 cents, higher than the consensus of 49 cents. 

nCino (NCNO) closed up greater than +13% after reporting Q2 subscription income of $130.8 million, higher than the consensus of $125.6 million, and elevating its 2026 subscription income estimate to $513.5 million-$517.5 million from $507 million-$511 million. 

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) closed up greater than +8% after releasing a collaboration with Travis Kelce’s AE x Tru Kolors clothes model in an try to capitalize on Taylor Swift’s recognition.

Elanco Animal Well being (ELAN) closed up greater than +3% after S&P Dow Jones Indices introduced the corporate will exchange Sarepta Therapeutics within the S&P MidCap 400 earlier than the opening of buying and selling on Tuesday, September 2.

Dynatrace (DT) closed up greater than +3% after Oppenheimer initiated protection of the inventory with a suggestion of outperform and a value goal of $65.

Okta (OKTA) closed up greater than +1% after reporting Q2 income of $728 million, stronger than the consensus of $696.9 million, and elevating its full-year income estimate to $2.88 billion-$2.89 billion from a earlier estimate of $2.85 billion-$2.86 billion, above the consensus of $2.86 billion. 

J M Smucker (SJM) closed down greater than -4% after reporting Q1 internet gross sales of $2.11 billion, beneath the consensus of $2.12 billion. 

SBA Communications (SBAC) closed down greater than -4% after Financial institution of America downgraded the inventory to impartial from purchase. 

Williams-Sonoma (WSM) closed down greater than -2%, regardless of reporting better-than-expected Q2 income, when it stated it expects its outlook to be pressured by incremental tariff prices. 

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) closed down almost 1% after the Suddeutsche Zeitung reported that a number of banks had blocked direct debits within the wake of funds that seemed to be suspicious or fraudulent. 

Earnings Reviews(8/28/2025)

Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM), Autodesk Inc (ADSK), Bathtub & Physique Works Inc (BBWI), Greatest Purchase Co Inc (BBY), Brown-Forman Corp (BF/B), Burlington Shops Inc (BURL), Dell Applied sciences Inc (DELL), Dick’s Sporting Items Inc (DKS), Greenback Basic Corp (DG), Elastic NV (ESTC), Hole Inc/The (GAP), Hormel Meals Corp (HRL), Marvell Expertise Inc (MRVL), Ollie’s Discount Outlet Holding (OLLI), SentinelOne Inc (S), Ulta Magnificence Inc (ULTA).

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