Cattle slaughter has been comparatively sturdy this yr. Whereas week-to-week cattle slaughter charges can range significantly, the development proven in Determine 1 the place it’s persistently larger. Since mid-2022, common weekly slaughter charges have risen 57%.
After peaking in Could and June, East Coast cattle slaughter slowed down into the winter. The latest lengthy weekend in Queensland and NSW needs to be the final main interruption till we enter the foolish season. Traditionally, November and December are both the strongest slaughter months or equal with June and July. The inflow of cattle earlier than the new climate and processing interruptions kick in drives slaughter at the moment of yr.
Regular value seasonality has gone out the window considerably in the previous few years, however late spring and early summer time are historically instances of easing costs. That development has borne out within the final month, with the Japanese Younger Cattle Indicator (EYCI) dropping 7% since mid-September. Determine 2 exhibits the latest decline within the EYCI hasn’t taken an excessive amount of shine off the late winter value rise.
We are able to additionally see in Determine 2 the continued rise of the 90CL Frozen Cow export value, which has continued its march larger. The most recent Steiner report on the Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) web site (see extra right here) outlines the problem the US is having with beef provide in the mean time. Extraordinarily tight native provide and document costs are being compounded by tariffs on Brazilian beef.
The outcomes are good for Australian processors, who’re having fun with document costs for manufacturing beef. The premium of the 90CL over the EYCI could be very sturdy and may proceed to assist slaughter cattle costs within the face of accelerating provide.
