Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) informed viewers late on September 25 that Bitcoin’s pullback is monitoring a well-known seasonal and structural script—and that the market’s subsequent main impulse hinges on a clearly outlined help vary. “Maintain $107k to $98K,” he mentioned, calling the zone the fulcrum for the bull cycle’s subsequent leg. “That’s it. It’s that straightforward.”
Opening his stream amid a rush of bearish sentiment as BTC worth dipped to $108,651, Kevin argued the drawdown shouldn’t shock disciplined merchants. He framed the present transfer within the context of months of warning relationship again to early August, when he started highlighting weekly bearish divergences throughout Bitcoin, Ethereum and the entire altcoin market (Total2), into what he described as four-plus-year resistance zones.
“Everybody thinks these symmetrical triangle patterns after a transfer greater are continuation patterns,” he mentioned, “however in actuality, within the crypto market, very, very hardly ever do these get away to the upside.” He pointed to a development of smaller impulse highs since late 2023 and reiterated that regardless of sharp rallies in choose altcoins, the majors didn’t clear “any main resistance ranges.”
Bitcoin Prime In Till Confirmed In any other case
The anchor of Kevin’s case is confluence on greater time frames. On Bitcoin’s weekly chart, he outlined rising worth highs towards falling momentum—“easy power and momentum indicators,” not indicators by themselves however context that “has been dwindling for a really very long time.”
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Total2, he added, registered “a triple high on the weekly” beneath roughly $1.71–$1.74 trillion—“the all-be-all resistance degree”—with weekly RSI and MACD rolling over. Shares of momentum, in his learn, are resetting exactly the place they need to amid traditionally skinny late-summer liquidity. “Q3 is rarely a superb quarter for crypto,” Kevin mentioned. “August, September are horrible months. They all the time are.”
In opposition to that backdrop, he argued that USDT dominance stays essentially the most dependable inter-market compass. “USDT dominance is the best chart ever. There isn’t a higher chart,” he mentioned, strolling via a macro descending triangle with a flat-bottom help close to 3.9–3.7% and repeated rallies to a falling trendline which have mapped crypto cycle lows and highs for 2 years.
Every method to the flat backside, he famous, has carved a W- or inverse-head-and-shoulders-style base in USDT.D whereas Bitcoin distributed close to native tops; every rejection on the downtrend has coincided with crypto inflections. “You actually don’t want any chart in all of crypto,” he mentioned. “All you want is Bitcoin and USDT dominance and you’d have performed this cycle completely completely.”
From a tactical standpoint, Kevin flagged a three-month BTC liquidity “warmth map” shelf close to $106.8K and the 21-week EMA—the bull-market help band—close to $109.2K as pure magnets, with the decrease weekly Bollinger Band sitting round $101K.
He confused he doesn’t wish to see “Bitcoin lose 106.8K” if the cycle stays intact, although a wick into that space to “swipe the liquidity” can be in keeping with prior resets. He framed $98K as the road that ought to not break decisively. “There’s an entire lot of help in that vary,” he mentioned. “I’d be fairly shocked if Bitcoin wasn’t in a position to bounce in there someplace.”
All Eyes On This autumn Seasonality
Kevin tied structural indicators to an specific macro guidelines, arguing that lasting cycle tops and bottoms align with elementary catalysts moderately than charts alone. He cited 2021’s inflation spike and the onset of the Fed’s climbing cycle as the motive force of that cycle’s 55–60% drawdown, the 2017 CME Bitcoin futures launch as a blow-off high catalyst, and the FTX collapse as the ultimate capitulation in 2022 amid weekly bullish divergence.
“There’s all the time a macro-related cause that correlates with the charts,” he mentioned. In contrast, he sees no such cycle-ending macro set off immediately: inflation gauges have been “very uneven” however contained; the Fed is extensively anticipated to ease into year-end offered labor softens; and seasonality favors This autumn.
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He underscored the near-term calendar—core PCE, CPI and labor knowledge within the first half of October—as decisive for threat urge for food. “Someday in mid-October… we’ll begin to have an thought of the place this market is basically going to go,” he mentioned. “If we get to mid-October and Bitcoin’s holding key help… and we get good macroeconomic knowledge, we get one other price reduce… the chances favor that Bitcoin will [go higher]—and then you definately’re in This autumn.”
Volatility positioning, he added, argues for a pointy directional transfer as soon as the reset completes. On the weekly Bollinger Band Width, Kevin mentioned BTC has printed record-low readings thrice this cycle—every in Q3—and every episode started with a draw back break of 18–29% earlier than surging to contemporary highs.
“There’s a large transfer coming for Bitcoin quickly. It has not occurred but,” he mentioned, noting spot volumes have declined since November whereas bands have tightened to historic extremes. A take a look at of the decrease weekly band close to $101K “is feasible,” however not required, in his view; the bottom line is that the broader $107K–$98K hall capabilities as a springboard.
Kevin was equally specific about invalidation and upside triggers. He labeled $125K “a significant high for now” and mentioned the market wants weekly and month-to-month closes above that degree to verify development continuation.
On dominance, he highlighted 59.0% and 60.28% as near-term resistance that would gas a BTC-led part if reclaimed; in any other case, he expects management to rotate again to altcoins as soon as Bitcoin bases and USDT dominance prints a decrease excessive. “Cease wanting on the altcoins” till these inter-market indicators flip, he suggested, emphasizing endurance, threat administration and taking earnings into resistance.
His backside line combines restraint with opportunism. “Maintain $107k to 98K,” he repeated. “Go into October. Get via the primary couple of weeks of macroeconomic knowledge… Bitcoin will inevitably discover a low on the again of that knowledge after which ultimately go greater.” However he warned that if macro arrives benign and “Bitcoin remains to be deteriorating,” merchants ought to be able to reassess the cycle thesis. Till then, Kevin’s message stays unapologetically unglamorous: respect the seasonal chop, monitor the inter-market tells, and let the higher-time-frame ranges do the speaking. “Being proper is the most effective pat on the again you may get,” he mentioned. “Not simply saying issues that get you lots of clicks.”
At press time, BTC traded at $109,607.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
