For the reason that begin of the continued monetary 12 months in April 2025, founder Bhavish Aggarwal and the maker of S1 Professional have modified their stance on the capability of the corporate’s gigafactory, the variety of gross sales it wants every month to interrupt even, income steering, and the energy of its distribution community.
The inconsistent outlook and forecasts coincide with plunging gross sales of its electrical scooters, highlighting its incapability to shake off issues that started with issues concerning the high quality of after-sales companies. That has eroded investor belief, wiping out greater than half of the corporate’s market worth previously 12 months.
Whereas it’s high-quality to adapt methods to altering enterprise environments and aggressive strikes, statements which aren’t backed by enterprise logic will be construed as deceptive traders, stated Shriram Subramanian, founder at Ingovern Analysis Providers, a proxy advisory agency. “Listed firms mustn’t make very sweeping statements with out planning granularly.”
Ola Electrical didn’t reply to queries emailed on Monday.
Gigafactory flip-flops
Among the many sequence of flip-flops during the last seven months, the contrasting commentary on the growth of the gigafactory stands out.
On 14 July final 12 months, after the earnings for the primary quarter ended June, Aggarwal-led Ola Electrical stated in a letter to shareholders that “provided that the EV market has developed slower in latest quarters, we do not foresee the necessity to develop past 5GWh (capability) until FY29.” The corporate initially deliberate to succeed in 20GWh.
Primarily based on this, the corporate reallocated ₹1,227 crore from the proceeds of its preliminary public providing to develop past 5GWh to different functions corresponding to R&D and common company bills.
The outlook modified after Q2 earnings have been introduced in November. Citing the launch of its Ola Shakti battery power storage system (BESS) primarily based on lithium-ion cells, the corporate famous that it might want 20GWh of capability.
“To fulfill this demand, we’re planning to develop our complete cell-manufacturing capability to twenty GWh by the second half of FY27,” its letter on 6 November stated. Aggarwal and the corporate didn’t make clear how funds can be allotted to develop past 20GWh.
Ola Electrical as soon as once more modified its stance within the newest earnings name held on 13 February. The corporate stated that the gigafactory will full 6GWh of capability by March 2026.
“For our enterprise priorities, we do not count on any extra gigafactory growth so far as the present roadmap goes,” Aggarwal stated, responding to a query on the longer term growth. “This is able to be sufficient to cater to each the automotive in addition to the BESS wants.”
The place did the shops go?
The corporate has additionally been inconsistent about the way it desires to make use of its distribution community, whilst gross sales of its scooters declined.
Ola Electrical introduced in December 2024 that its outlet depend had greater than quadrupled from 800 to over 4,000 shops because it confronted a rising pile of complaints about after-sales companies.
However throughout the earnings name in November final 12 months, Aggarwal instructed analysts and traders that the big distribution community can be a bonus for its battery storage enterprise.
“The product goes into the market round mid-January and goes into the market throughout all our 2,500-3,000 shops. So, in that sense, we have now a really sturdy distribution additionally,” he stated.
Nonetheless, within the newest 13 February shareholder letter, the corporate stated that it has diminished the variety of shops from 4,000 to 700 as a part of its price restructuring programme.
The corporate’s working bills declined from ₹844 crore as of the March 2025 quarter to ₹484 crore in October-December, in accordance with its filings. Its losses narrowed to ₹487 crore from ₹564 crore a 12 months earlier, whereas income plunged 57% to ₹504 crore as its gross sales dwindled.
Shifting gross sales outlook
Ola Electrical’s estimates for the scooter enterprise have additionally been shifting for the reason that begin of final 12 months. Within the February 2025 earnings name for the third quarter of FY25, Aggarwal knowledgeable shareholders that the corporate must promote 50,000 autos each month to interrupt even.
That quantity modified within the Might 2025 earnings name for Q4FY25 to 25,000 a month, citing the corporate’s price cuts. However on February 13, Aggarwal additional lowered this threshold to fifteen,000 gross sales a month.
All this whereas, Ola Electrical’s gross sales tumbled. In calendar 12 months 2025, the corporate slipped to fourth place on India’s EV leaderboard, behind TVS Motor Co., Bajaj Auto Ltd and Ather Power Ltd. Final 12 months, Ola Electrical’s gross sales stood at almost 200,000 models, falling by greater than half since 2024.
Gross sales restoration at Ola Electrical might be a tough, long-drawn course of, particularly amid larger focus from incumbents and scale-up at rival Ather, analysts at Emkay International Monetary Providers wrote in a 14 February word.
“The turnaround would necessitate Ola to have a robust money stability to outlive this part,” analysts Chirag Jain, Nandan Pradhan, Marazbaan Dastur and Mohit Ranga of Emkay wrote within the word. Nonetheless, citing the brokerage’s calculations, they stated Ola had a internet debt of ₹670 crore as of December in contrast with internet money of ₹160 crore as of September.
“Upside danger might stem from a strategic stake sale within the battery enterprise, leading to significant money infusion,” they stated.
The analysts’ curiosity within the firm can also be cooling.
Since itemizing in August 2024, the corporate’s calls have usually lasted about an hour, with veteran analysts from high brokerages asking questions. Nonetheless, fewer than 5 analysts posed inquiries to Ola Electrical’s administration throughout the 6 February name, which lasted simply over half an hour. Greater than a 3rd of the time was taken by the corporate for its personal commentary.
The buy-sell ratio on the inventory solely reinforces issues. After itemizing in August 2024, 2 analysts had a ‘purchase’ name on the inventory in opposition to no ‘promote’ suggestion, in accordance with Bloomberg knowledge. By January 2025, the ratio had moved to five:2 as extra brokerages started protecting the inventory. Nonetheless, as of 17 February 2026, the ratio reversed, with six analysts having a ‘promote’ ranking on Ola Electrical in opposition to 1 ‘purchase’ name.
