Cocoa Prices Retreat as the Supply Outlook Improves

December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) on Thursday closed down -211 (-3.30%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) closed down -141 (-3.08%).

Cocoa costs settled sharply decrease for a second day on Thursday amid expectations of a bumper cocoa crop in West Africa.  Reviews from Ivory Coast cocoa farmers said that cocoa bushes are doing properly, and up to date dry climate helped harvested beans dry, whereas cocoa farmers in Ghana stated favorable climate is permitting cocoa pods to develop shortly.  

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Chocolate maker Mondelez just lately stated that the most recent cocoa pod rely in West Africa is 7% above the five-year common and “materially increased” than final 12 months’s crop.  The harvest of the Ivory Coast’s predominant crop has simply begun, and farmers are optimistic about its high quality.

On Tuesday, cocoa costs rallied to 5-week highs as short-covering emerged from final Thursday’s information that the administrator of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) stated cocoa might be included within the index for the primary time in 2 many years, starting in January.  Belongings monitoring the BCOM index totaled nearly $109 billion on the finish of 2024, suggesting cocoa’s 1.7% weighting within the index may spur vital inflows into the market from passive funds that observe it.  In keeping with Peak Buying and selling Analysis LLC, “Funds must purchase about $1.9 billion in cocoa futures over the following 80 days.”

Cocoa costs even have assist from a slowdown in cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer.  Monday’s authorities knowledge confirmed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 304,840 MT of cocoa to ports this new advertising 12 months, from October 1 by means of November 2, down -16% from 365,072 MT in the identical interval a 12 months in the past.

Shrinking ICE cocoa inventories are supportive for cocoa costs.  ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports fell to a 7.5-month low of 1,793,757 luggage on Thursday.

Cocoa costs have been undercut by fears that top cocoa costs and tariffs may dampen chocolate demand.  North American gross sales quantity of chocolate sweet was down greater than -21% within the 13 weeks ending September 7, in comparison with the identical interval final 12 months, based on knowledge from analysis agency Circana.

Weak world cocoa demand is bearish for costs.  Final Thursday, the CEO of chocolate-maker Hershey stated chocolate gross sales this Halloween season have been “disappointing.”  Halloween made up practically 18% of annual US sweet gross sales in 2024, second solely to Christmas.  In the meantime, the Cocoa Affiliation of Asia on October 17 reported that Q3 Asia cocoa grindings fell by -17% y/y to 183,413, the smallest grindings for a Q3 in 9 years.  The European Cocoa Affiliation on October 16 reported that Q3 European cocoa grindings fell -4.8% y/y to 337,353 MT, the bottom for a 3rd quarter in 10 years.  The Nationwide Confectioners Affiliation reported that Q3 North American cocoa grindings rose +3.2% y/y to 112,784 MT, however the addition of latest reporting corporations skewed the info.

A supportive issue for cocoa is decrease cocoa manufacturing in Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer.  Nigeria’s Cocoa Affiliation initiatives that Nigeria’s 2025/26 cocoa manufacturing will fall by -11% y/y to 305,000 MT from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop 12 months.  In associated information, Nigeria reported that its September cocoa exports have been unchanged y/y at 14,511 MT.  

On Could 30, the Worldwide Cocoa Group (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 world cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT, the most important deficit in over 60 years.  ICCO stated 2023/24 cocoa manufacturing fell by -13.1% y/y to 4.380 MMT.  ICCO said that the 2023/24 world cocoa stocks-to-grindings ratio declined to a 46-year low of 27.0%.  For 2024/25, ICCO estimated a worldwide cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT, marking the primary surplus in 4 years.  ICCO additionally stated world cocoa manufacturing in 2024/25 rose by +7.8% y/y to 4.84 MMT. 

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