Driving on the again of macroeconomic uncertainty, festive demand, and central financial institution accumulation, the valuable metallic has seen sharp appreciation each globally and in Indian markets.
Dhanteras-to-Dhanteras returns: A 12-month bull run
Final Dhanteras, October 29, 2024, gold was buying and selling at Rs 78,840 per 10 grams or $2,769 per ounce. As of Dhanteras 2025, the metallic was quoting at roughly Rs 1,28,200 or $4,254 per ounce. This represents annual returns of 63% in Indian rupee phrases and 53% in greenback phrases.”Gold appears to be on a world tour discovering newer locations,” noticed Ventura Securities in its report titled Gold’s Supersonic Velocity – Dhanteras’24 to Dhanteras’25. Based on the agency, these positive factors got here regardless of a number of exterior pressures, together with tighter US labour knowledge, geopolitical tensions, and commerce restrictions.
The home momentum was no much less historic. Gold futures on the Multi-Commodity Alternate (MCX) jumped to Rs 1,32,294 per 10 grams throughout October, marking the best degree ever on the Indian change. The MCX December contract climbed 12.8% in October alone, rising from Rs 1,17,265 on September 30 to Rs 1,31,878 on October 17.
A historic yr for bullion
The rally wasn’t restricted to only the festive interval. Gold prolonged its surge by a lot of 2025, breaching $4,300 on COMEX and hitting a session excessive of $4,379 per ounce. Spot gold climbed 0.3% to $4,336 as of 0233 GMT on October 17, marking its strongest weekly acquire since March 2020.Home analysis agency Motilal Oswal described the rally as a “uncommon and spectacular ascent” that has pushed gold past $4,000 on COMEX and Rs 1,20,000 domestically.
The agency famous that gold has already registered over 35 new file highs this yr and surged greater than 50% year-to-date throughout exchanges.
Manav Modi, Analyst, Commodities & Currencies at Motilal Oswal, attributed the surge to structural shifts within the world economic system, stating:
“Gold’s stellar rally displays a confluence of macro shifts — from fiscal uncertainty and softer greenback to strategic diversification by central banks. Asia is rising because the epicentre of this new financial alignment.”
Ventura Securities echoed comparable sentiments, noting that ETF inflows, central financial institution shopping for, and the US Federal Reserve’s dovish commentary have been key contributors. “Gold is fueling investor confidence and a robust sense of FOMO as each pullback is being met with aggressive shopping for,” the agency reported.
Jewelry phase sees a combined image
On the retail entrance, the festive season has seen elevated momentum in light-weight jewelry demand, largely attributed to excessive gold costs and altering shopper preferences.
Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewellery, commented on the seasonal demand dynamics, stating, “Regardless of gold costs scaling new highs, the sentiment amongst patrons throughout the festive season is more likely to stay upbeat – primarily influenced by festive shopping for, elevated disposable revenue as a result of beneficial financial elements, and the affinity of the Indian inhabitants in direction of the standard yellow metallic.”
Nevertheless, he additionally identified a shift in shopping for behaviour, saying, “Client preferences are quickly shifting in direction of light-weight jewelry, extra for the aim of decoration somewhat than funding. Pushed by this development, the festive season is anticipated to see a major surge in demand for jewelry within the 9k to 18k phase, with a notable choice for heavier jewelry.”
Shah additional added, “Given the present market situation, we foresee a festive surge of ~18% to twenty% in total gross sales, signalling some reduction from the brunt that the gems & jewelry sector is going through as a result of heavy tariffs on exports.”
Throughout Q2 2025, jewelry demand reportedly dropped 17% year-on-year, as Ventura famous, whereas different funding choices and alternate options noticed elevated traction.
Outlook for gold past Dhanteras 2025
Analysts stay cautiously optimistic concerning the path ahead. Ventura famous that the value resistances are seen at Rs 1,30,000 – Rs 1,35,000, with help coming in at Rs 1,21,000 or $4,000. The agency indicated that weak point may solely set in if costs breach Rs 1,20,000 or $3,980.
Trying additional forward, Ventura wrote, “Beginning the following rally from Dhanteras 2025, the uncharted territory of $5000 per ounce / Rs 1,50,000 per ten grams may very well be in 2026.”
The sentiment was additional bolstered by Motilal Oswal’s commodities outlook for Samvat 2082, which projected gold costs to commerce between $4,250 and $4,500 on COMEX and Rs 1,28,500 to Rs 1,35,000 domestically, assuming USDINR at 89.
Manav Modi and Navneet Damani from Motilal Oswal collectively quoted, “We’ve got achieved our goal for Gold on each COMEX and the home entrance at $4,000 and Rs 1,20,000, respectively. Whereas bouts of correction could emerge, persistence above the all-time highs may take costs in direction of $4,250–$4,500 on COMEX and, assuming USDINR at 89, Rs 1,28,500–Rs 1,35,000 on the home entrance from a medium- to long-term perspective.”Additionally learn: Gold hits one other all-time excessive, marks its strongest week in 5 years. Shiny path forward or in for a bumpy trip?As India steps into the center of the festive season, with Diwali on the horizon, historic shopping for patterns and cultural sentiment are anticipated to proceed influencing the home gold commerce. MOFSL famous that costs in India have traditionally risen in seven of the previous ten Diwali seasons, with pre-Diwali positive factors usually outpacing post-festival developments.
(Disclaimer: Suggestions, recommendations, views and opinions given by the specialists are their very own. These don’t symbolize the views of The Financial Occasions)
