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Home Trading News Forex

EUR/USD Forecast: France’s Political Risk Weighs on Euro

August 27, 2025
in Forex
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EUR/USD Forecast: France’s Political Risk Weighs on Euro
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The EUR/USD forecast factors south as market members fear about political stability in France.

The French Prime Minister has referred to as for a confidence vote in early September.

The greenback rebounded on Wednesday as considerations in regards to the Fed’s independence eased.

The EUR/USD forecast factors south as market members fear about political stability in France. In the meantime, the greenback recovered from a latest collapse as worries in regards to the independence of the Fed eased.

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The French Prime Minister has referred to as for a confidence vote in early September that would result in one other collapse within the authorities. The information led to a collapse in authorities bonds as merchants frightened that it will imply instability and no funds by the top of the yr. In consequence, the euro has confronted downward strain.

“What’s key’s whether or not or not we will have a funds by the top of the yr,” mentioned AXA chief economist Gilles Moec.

Alternatively, the greenback rebounded on Wednesday as considerations in regards to the Fed’s independence eased. On Monday, Trump ordered the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Prepare dinner, which led to a collapse within the dollar. The transfer escalated tensions between Trump and the Fed. On the similar time, merchants grew involved about the way forward for the central financial institution. Such a transfer may imply a extra political Fed sooner or later with no independence.

EUR/USD key occasions right now

Merchants usually are not anticipating any high-impact financial releases from the US or the Eurozone. Subsequently, market focus will stay on France’s politics.

EUR/USD technical forecast: Bears purpose for the 1.1550 help stage

EUR/USD technical forecast
EUR/USD 4-hour chart

On the technical aspect, the EUR/USD value trades under the 30-SMA, with the RSI underneath 50, suggesting a bearish bias. The decline comes after bulls didn’t hold the worth above the 1.1700 key resistance stage. 

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EUR/USD has maintained a sideways transfer after the development reversed close to the 1.1400 help stage. Bulls took over and began making greater highs and lows. Nevertheless, they had been unable to proceed the rally previous the 1.1700 resistance. Since then, the worth has chopped by the 30-SMA with no clear course. It made one other failed try when the bulls made a powerful inexperienced candle.

At the moment, bears are eyeing the 1.1550 help stage. A break under will enable the worth to retest the 1.1400 help and begin a brand new downtrend.

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Tags: EuroEURUSDForecastFrancespoliticalRiskWeighs
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