EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Buyers Dominate Ahead of US Data

The EUR/USD weekly forecast stays upside, staying above 1.1700. 
The weaker US greenback lends extra help to the euro amid the Fed’s coverage outlook and poor financial knowledge. 
Markets at the moment are eyeing US ADP and NFP knowledge together with the Fed Chair’s speech. 

The EUR/USD worth ended the month with a stable bullish momentum, closing the week barely off the highs of 1.1754, which is the best degree since September 2021. The pair marked a 2% weekly achieve because the greenback noticed a pointy deterioration amid geopolitical aid, gentle US knowledge, and rising stress on the Fed to chop the charges.

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What Occurred with EUR/USD Final Week?

The week began with intense market jitters because the US attacked three nuclear websites of Iran, which weighed closely on the Euro and elevated the demand for the greenback as a safe-haven asset. Nevertheless, the truce got here sooner as President Trump introduced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Consequently, oil costs fell, equities and the euro rebounded, whereas the safe-haven greenback suffered losses.

Dollar’s sentiment deteriorated after Fed Chair Powell’s testimony earlier than Congress. He maintained a cautious tone, signaling no rush to chop the charges. Nevertheless, he acknowledged the impression of tariffs on inflation. These feedback provoked President Trump, who publicly criticized the Fed Chair and hinted at changing him earlier than the tip of the 12 months. This raised issues over the Fed’s credibility, leading to weighing on the greenback and boosting EUR/USD.

On Friday, the US Core PCE Worth Index got here at 2.7% y/y, briefly above expectations. Nevertheless, the Q1 GDP confirmed a 0.5% contraction, and June’s PMI studying edged right down to 52.8, indicating slowing momentum. The Sturdy Items Orders knowledge remained upbeat, however this was primarily on account of one risky element: plane orders.

Contrarily, the EU knowledge remained steady with the HCOB PMI at 50.2, reflecting stagnation in exercise however not contraction. Expectations round fiscal stimulus plans are offering long-term tailwinds for the euro.

EUR/USD Key Occasions Subsequent Week

On the European website, the markets will concentrate on Germany’s retail gross sales knowledge, together with HICP inflation knowledge. Furthermore, the Eurozone CPI may even be the important thing knowledge to observe.

From the US, key occasions embrace ADP employment, JOLTs, ISM PMIs, NFP, and the Fed Chair’s speech. Nevertheless, the labor market knowledge is extra essential, because the Fed is watching cooling indicators to plan its easing coverage. The ADP is anticipated to extend, whereas the NFP is prone to proceed its modest decline. Moreover, the unemployment charge could rise barely.

EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Possible Pullback amid Oversold Situation

The every day chart for the EUR/USD reveals a powerful upside pattern, with eyes on additional good points. Nevertheless, the value noticed a minor pullback on Friday on account of profit-taking. The pullback could proceed to check the damaged resistance round 1.1600. The RSI has reached an oversold area, whereas the 20-day SMA is simply too distant from the present worth, which can set off a imply reversion.

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On the upside, the value could resume the bullish pattern after a gentle consolidation or pullback. The upside goal is positioned at 1.1800, forward of 1.2000. Any pullback within the pair appears corrective and seems to be a “purchase on the dip” alternative.

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