Since we final checked out hay markets again on the finish of Could, costs
have continued to soar. The Dairy
Australia information we’re utilizing solely goes again to 2019, however Determine 1 exhibits that hay
costs have by no means been larger. In reality
the newest midpoint determine, of $645 per tonne in southwest Victoria, is 35%
larger than the height of 2019.
In NSW, the place hay costs have been sturdy within the 2019 drought,
hay values are nonetheless 19% larger than 2019, regardless of the season being okay. In WA, costs are additionally on the highest ranges
since 2019, with east coast demand driving costs larger as truckloads head
throughout the Nullarbor.
Going ahead, there are two faculties of thought. The primary idea is extra optimistic for
customers of hay. The destocking that
has taken place within the south, mixed with a drive to replenish shares, will
see loads of extra grass minimize and made into hay, seeing provides improve and costs
fall. Trying again at 2019-20, an excellent
season, and a provide improve, noticed a dramatic drop in hay values in a single day.
The second idea, which does have some advantage, is that this
scarcity is extra excessive. With hay now
coming from WA, it does counsel native shares are principally at zero. The late autumn has delayed the sowing of hay
crops, which can restrict yields, and for hay to be drawn out of the fingers of
growers who wish to replenish shares, costs must stay sturdy.
One other issue at play is comparatively weak cereal
costs. Again of the envelope, If a
barley, wheat or oat crop goes to yield 4t/ha of grain at $300/t, this
equates to $1200. Minimize the identical crop for
hay, yielding 6t/ha at $500/t, and it’s $3000.
