Determine 1 reveals the median worth in inflation-adjusted (deflated) Australian greenback phrases for the 2010–2025 seasons from 14.5 to 21.5 microns, for indicator-style Merino fleece offered at public sale (bars). The present season median worth (to mid-October) is proven as a line. For the 18.5-micron and finer classes, the present season worth is beneath the 15-year median, whereas for 20.5 and 21.5 microns, the present season worth could be very near the 15-year median. This displays the marked drop within the provide of broader Merino wool in Australia, which helps to push costs for these classes increased in comparison with the final attire fibre markets.
Desk 1 seems on the one-micron premiums for the 14.5 to twenty.5-micron classes throughout the 2010–2025 interval. It reveals the utmost, minimal, and quartiles (primarily based on the annual information), in addition to the present season premium. For instance, the present season premium for 15.5-micron in comparison with the 16.5-micron class is 16%, with the 15-year median being 14.3%. There may be fairly a spread within the 15.5-micron premium, extending from a low of two.2% (in 2017) to a most of 24.7% (in 2024). Micron premiums and reductions are fairly variable, so it pays to view them throughout a very long time body.
Determine 2 takes information from Desk 1 and presents it schematically. The 15-year median worth is proven, with the utmost and minimal extent of the premium denoted by bars. The present season premium is proven by a line. The relative power of the 14.5- and 15.5-micron premiums is indicated by the present season being above their respective 15-year median ranges, with the 16.5-micron premium noticeably weak.
Micron premiums for 16.5–19.5 microns are operating close to their 15-year decrease quartile this season, at low ranges. The 20.5-micron premium is operating at its lowest degree. The relative change in quantity for 16–18 microns versus 20–22 microns throughout the previous 12 months reveals a big surplus of fantastic Merino wool and a scarcity of broad Merino wool. This can be a seasonally induced surplus, however the provide chain will not be notably excited about why there’s a surplus or scarcity throughout various classes of wool. The result is a flat pricing construction for 20–23-micron Merino fleece, small premiums from 16–20 microns, and sufficient demand to raise micron premiums for 15-micron and finer wool.
Determine 2 reveals that the 14.5-micron premium is above its median (higher than you’ll count on throughout the following 15 years), the 15.5-micron is about common, and the 16.5-micron and broader premiums are beneath what we will count on over the following 15 years.
Merino wool manufacturing has one main benefit — growers can set breeding indices to enhance wool high quality over time, primarily by decreasing fibre diameter, and thereby enhance per-hectare returns, albeit with year-to-year volatility in these returns.
