Australia’s sheep flock was estimated to be 74.2 million head as of June 30 this 12 months, which was a 6.2% drop from final 12 months’s 79 million. Comparatively, in March, the flock was forecast to be 73.2 million head this 12 months, or 7.4% decrease than in 2024. This implies, regardless of seasonally influenced excessive turn-off, MLA is estimating there are 1 million extra sheep within the paddock than they thought there can be six months in the past.
The ahead projections for the flock have additionally elevated, with sheep numbers predicted to rise for the following two years and be again inside 0.17%, or about 140,000 head, of 2024 numbers in 2027. In March, MLA forecast the sheep flock would fall by an extra 2% in 2026 and sit 6% decrease than 2024 in 2027. Two primary components have influenced the revision: the primary being that the Australian Bureau of Statistics hasn’t launched nationwide sheep figures since 2022, and the second being that complete sheep and lamb slaughter has additionally been revised decrease for 2025.
Official lamb slaughter fell about 4% within the June quarter (newest figures obtainable) from each the earlier quarter and the identical quarter the earlier 12 months. It’s now forecast to be about 1.2 million head decrease than projected in March, at 24.9 million head, shut to six% decrease year-on-year. The delay in new season lambs is prone to affect third-quarter numbers, with an increase anticipated once more within the final three months.
Export figures have been revised greater, with mutton volumes now anticipated to be 18% greater than they had been on the March forecast and lamb 13% greater. These figures are nonetheless down from final 12 months’s document highs however are traditionally very robust. Lamb exports are anticipated to be 4.5% above 2024 ranges by 2027, whereas the flock rebuild, if it eventuates, will see mutton again 17% on final 12 months by 2027.
