The place We Are within the Cycle
If you happen to’re questioning whether or not gold’s latest all-time highs imply you’ve missed the rally, historical past presents a reassuring reply: gold bull markets are inclined to final far longer than most traders anticipate. And by historic requirements, this cycle should be in its early innings.
Among the finest methods to know the place gold stands at this time is to match this rally with earlier gold bull markets — not simply in value, however in length. The patterns don’t repeat precisely, however they do rhyme. And what they counsel is that this transfer could have extra room to run.
How As we speak’s Rally Compares to Previous Bull Markets
Supply: Bloomberg, World Gold Council | *Knowledge as of 10/09/2025. Primarily based on the LBMA Gold Value PM.
As of October 9, 2025, gold’s present rally is roughly 735 days previous. That may sound substantial — till you evaluate it to historical past. Main gold bull markets have averaged about 1,062 days in length. Almost three years.
And right here’s the crucial perception: in previous cycles, gold typically hit document highs early within the rally — then stored climbing for years afterward.
The chart above exhibits three main gold bull markets alongside at this time’s rally, listed to their beginning factors. What turns into instantly clear is that length issues as a lot as magnitude — and by that measure, this cycle nonetheless has runway.
The Seventies: When Gold Rose 2,300% Over 4 Years
The Seventies gold bull market stays essentially the most dramatic instance of gold’s potential during times of financial instability.
Gold started that decade at $35 per ounce — a set value that had been maintained since 1934. When President Nixon severed the greenback’s tie to gold in 1971, the floodgates opened. By January 1980, gold had surged previous $850, a staggering 2,300% achieve in lower than a decade.
However right here’s what many traders overlook: gold broke above its earlier all-time excessive comparatively early in that cycle. It then spent years consolidating and climbing larger earlier than its ultimate parabolic surge.
The drivers had been clear: double-digit inflation, increasing funds deficits, geopolitical shocks (oil embargoes, Chilly Conflict tensions), and a disaster of confidence in fiat currencies. Sound acquainted? As we speak’s macro surroundings shares extra parallels with the Seventies than most traders notice.
The 2001-2011 Rally: A Decade-Lengthy Climb
The following main gold bull market started in 2001, following 20 years of bear market situations. This rally was totally different in character — steadier, longer, and pushed by a brand new set of issues.
Gold bottomed close to $250 in 1999 and started climbing because the dot-com bubble burst. By 2006, it had reached new nominal highs round $725. Many traders at that time assumed the rally was overextended.
They had been incorrect. Over the following 5 years, gold tripled from these “all-time highs,” finally peaking close to $1,900 in September 2011.
What drove that decade-long climb? The monetary disaster of 2008, unprecedented financial growth by way of quantitative easing, sovereign debt issues in Europe, and protracted concern that central banks had been debasing their currencies. As soon as once more, the rally didn’t finish as a result of costs felt excessive — it ended when these elementary drivers started to ease after 2011.
What Really Ends a Gold Bull Market
Gold rallies don’t finish simply because costs really feel excessive. They finish when the underlying drivers reverse — and proper now, these forces are accelerating, not easing.
The basics supporting gold at this time embody:
Mounting sovereign debt throughout developed economies Persistent inflation pressuring buying energy Forex debasement by way of expansionary financial coverage Rising geopolitical instability driving safe-haven demand
Till these traits shift, the macro backdrop stays bullish for gold. And none of them present indicators of reversing quickly.
Why This Cycle Could Nonetheless Be Early-Stage
By length alone, at this time’s rally seems to be youthful than earlier gold bull markets. If this cycle follows historic patterns, the danger of being under-allocated to gold could outweigh the danger of holding a core place.
The takeaway isn’t to chase value or time each dip. It’s to acknowledge that gold bull markets have traditionally rewarded persistence over market timing. The pattern size has favored staying invested fairly than buying and selling round headlines or short-term volatility.
Historical past suggests we could also be watching the center chapters of this story — not the ultimate act.
Individuals Additionally Ask
How lengthy do gold bull markets sometimes final?
Main gold bull markets have traditionally averaged round 1,062 days — almost three years in length. The Seventies rally lasted over 4 years, whereas the 2001-2011 bull market ran for a full decade. By comparability, the present cycle (as of October 2025) is roughly 735 days previous, suggesting it might nonetheless have room to run.
Can gold proceed rising after hitting all-time highs?
Completely. In previous gold bull markets, reaching all-time highs was typically an early-stage sign, not a peak. Through the Seventies rally, gold greater than doubled after breaking data, and within the 2001-2011 cycle, it tripled following its first new highs in 2006. Historic patterns present that length issues greater than value ranges alone.
What causes a gold bull market to finish?
Gold bull markets sometimes finish when their underlying drivers reverse — not just because costs really feel elevated. The important thing components embody fiscal stress, forex debasement, inflation, and geopolitical instability. When authorities debt stabilizes, inflation subsides, and geopolitical tensions ease, gold rallies are inclined to plateau. These situations aren’t current at this time.
Is it too late to purchase gold in 2025?
Historical past suggests it will not be. If this cycle follows earlier patterns, the rally might nonetheless be in its center phases fairly than approaching a peak. The chance of being under-allocated to gold could outweigh the danger of ready for a pullback that by no means comes. GoldSilver presents instructional sources to assist traders construct a strategic place fairly than making an attempt to time the market.
How does the present gold rally evaluate to the Seventies bull market?
The Seventies gold bull market lasted over 4 years and noticed costs surge greater than 2,000% from begin to end. Importantly, gold continued climbing for years after breaking all-time highs. As we speak’s rally shares related elementary drivers — fiscal deficits, forex issues, and geopolitical threat — however is shorter in length to date, suggesting it might nonetheless have vital upside potential.
