Beginning with flock numbers, Meat and Livestock Australia estimated we had about 79 million sheep in 2024, and forecast in February that this yr, that determine would fall to 73.2 million head. Earlier than this, the MLA and Australian Wool Innovation’s Sheep Producer’s Survey, final carried out in its entirety in October, calculated that on the again of these intending to alter the dimensions of their sheep flock, the lamb flock would lower by 1% this yr. In different phrases, flock numbers had been on their method down, having peaked for the present cycle final yr. The subsequent producer survey outcomes are due out quickly and can provide perception into numbers.
Shifting onto slaughter, the forecast from MLA was for the sheep kill to say no 20% year-on-year in 2025. This was on the again of 11.8 million being slaughtered final yr, the biggest quantity in practically twenty years. In accordance with Nationwide Livestock Reporting Service weekly figures, for the year-to-date, sheep slaughter is only one% beneath the place it was on the identical time final yr. The common weekly kill quantity is sitting at about 3% beneath 2024’s. First quarter knowledge from ABS confirmed sheep slaughter at 2.88 million head, in comparison with 2.69 million in the identical interval of 2024.
Historically, sheep slaughter is extra constant all year long than lambs, with the five-year weekly common figures solely differing by about 100 sheep when evaluating the primary six months and the second six months. Traditionally, nevertheless, it does peak in November, which means a few of the largest mutton buying and selling weeks of the yr are but to return, and weekly numbers are exhibiting we’ve solely processed about 44% of the forecast 9.8 million sheep up to now.
Reside sheep export numbers have dropped 14% for the year-to-date after a gradual begin and can now principally halt for the following three months. Whereas that is solely a small portion of mutton turn-off, it was forecast to extend by 20% this yr and does provide some perception into numbers within the west. Reside export accounted for simply 8% of Western Australia’s sheep turnoff in 2023-24, in comparison with transfers to japanese states, which had been 13%. For the 2024-25 monetary yr, to January, WA japanese switch figures had been at simply 20% of what they had been for the complete 2023-24 yr.
