Meat & Livestock Australia weekly lamb slaughter for the year-to-date is 22% decrease than the identical interval in 2025, and 19% down on 2024. The newest sheep trade projections from MLA in September forecast complete lamb slaughter for 2026 to drop by simply 2%. The nationwide lamb kill continues to be sitting marginally above the five-year-average, which is traditionally sturdy given the estimated vital drop in total flock numbers.
Trying forward, historically lamb slaughter is pretty constant from right here by way of to Could, when it peaks earlier than dipping in mid-winter earlier than selecting up tempo relying on when the brand new season lamb commerce happens. Nonetheless, for the previous two years, when seasonal circumstances have been related and extra lambs have been held over, weekly common lamb slaughter was greater within the first half of the yr than the second, hitting its peak for the yr on the finish of April.Â
The obvious indicator that lamb provide has tightened in fact is present pricing. So far as the export market is worried, demand hasn’t dramatically modified. Lamb export volumes for January have been decrease than each 2025 and 2024, however nonetheless 16% above the 5 yr common. Traditionally sturdy, however not rising. The Nationwide Heavy Lamb Indicator, nevertheless, closed final week 39% greater year-on-year, and 42% stronger than the five-year determine. The indicator is averaging 1018¢/kg for the year-to-date, in comparison with 805¢/kg for a similar interval final yr.
