Whereas we’ve already identified this yr that ewe flock numbers are extra like guestimates in the mean time, sustained traditionally sturdy costs, failed seasons and world urge for food have meant loads of sheep have been turned off up to now six months. The provision-demand equation appears to be like set to proceed, and even enhance additional, in favour of producers if restockers get sufficient rain to each depart and enter the market.
About this time final yr, we regarded on the sheep market and famous that traditionally excessive slaughter for the primary month of 2025 had pushed costs decrease, when historically the mutton indicator stays steady by to the winter rise. For the primary 4 months of 2026, complete nationwide sheep slaughter has fallen 11% yr on yr. That was coming from document figures for these 4 weeks, nevertheless, and this yr’s throughput nonetheless stays traditionally sturdy, about 12% above the five-year common sheep slaughter determine for that interval.
Regardless of the above-average provide, costs haven’t misplaced any floor. The Nationwide Mutton Indicator is averaging 754¢/kg for the yr to this point, with each week-end NMI a document excessive for that particular week of the yr. It presently sits about 120% above year-ago ranges, 74% greater than the five-year common, and 80% above the 10-year value. The Nationwide Livestock Reporting Service equates the present value to a median of $200/head. Placing this into perspective, the identical week final yr was $93/head.
Wanting on the longer-term common value for the NMI, the annual peak happens within the second week of June, and rises 19% between every now and then. Previously 5 years, the excessive has occurred barely later, within the third week of July, and has risen 20% from the top of January. Utilizing the mid-point of the 2, this is able to deliver the NMI to above 900¢/kg come winter, surpassing the present document set in October of 810¢/kg.
