Highlights embody US CPI and Retail Gross sales, China Inflation and Exercise Knowledge, RBA, Aussie Jobs, UK Jobs & GDP, Potential TrumpPutin Assembly, US/China Truce Deadline
Newsquawk Week Forward: Highlightsa 11-Fifteenth August 2025
MON: Norwegian CPI (Jul), Japanese Mountain Day Vacation
TUE: US-China truce deadline (prone to be prolonged), RBA Announcement (Aug), UK Jobs Report (Jun), German ZEW Survey (Aug), US CPI (Jul), EIA STEO, OPEC MOMR
WED: German Closing CPI (Jul), Spanish Closing CPI (Jul)
THU: Norges Financial institution Announcement, Australian Jobs Report (Jul), UK GDP (Jun/Q2), Swedish CPIF (Jul), EZ Flash GDP (Q2) and Employment (Q2), US PPI (Jul)
FRI: Japanese GDP (Q2), Chinese language Exercise Knowledge (Jul), US Retail Gross sales (Jul), US College of Michigan Prelim (Aug)
POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN SUMMIT (TBC): The Kremlin stated a US–Russia summit will happen “within the coming days,” whereas the White Home stated it’s engaged on the main points and that President Trump is open to the assembly. Russiaʼs deputy UN ambassador, Polyanskiy, stated Russian President Putin might meet President Trump subsequent week, however was not conscious of any deliberate assembly between Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Putin recommended the UAE as a “appropriate” venue following talks with UAE President Al Nahyan. Kremlin aide Ushakov stated discussions will concentrate on a Ukraine ceasefire however dismissed Washingtonʼs point out of a trilateral summit with Zelensky, with Putin reiterating circumstances for such a gathering are “removed from” being met. The summit comes amid Trumpʼs not too long ago shortened deadline for Moscow to indicate progress or face new sanctions; some analysts counsel Putin could also be utilizing the talks to purchase time and blunt US measures. Kyiv and European leaders stay cautious of any deal struck with out Ukraine current, warning it might contain territorial concessions. Markets will seemingly concentrate on affirmation of timing, venue, and thereafter, whether or not the summit produces substance. On the flip aspect, an absence of progress might see further Russian sanctions alongside secondary sanctions for nations doing enterprise with Russia.
CHINESE INFLATION (SAT): July CPI Y/Y is anticipated at -0.1% (prev. -0.1%), with M/M seen at +0.3% (prev. -0.1%), whereas PPI Y/Y is forecast at -3.4% (prev. -3.6%). ING notes deflationary pressures persist as exercise moderates, with anti-price-competition measures unlikely to ship early aid. In the meantime, SCMP highlights continued weak point in meals costs (June -0.3% Y/Y, fifth month-to-month decline), pushed by extreme oversupply in pork (-8.5% Y/Y) and eggs (-7.7%), with farmers reporting widespread losses and weak end-market demand. Marginal enhancements are anticipated in H2, however the scope for restoration stays restricted, based on SCMP.
US-CHINA TRUCE DEADLINE (TUE): The US-China tariff truce, set to run out on August twelfth, is prone to be prolonged by 90 days, based on US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on Thursday. Following the assembly in Sweden, Beijing has confirmed consensus on the extension, however the White Home has but to formally announce the transfer, with USTR Greer saying the 2 sides are “working in the direction of” a deal. The present pause follows months of tariff escalation, with US duties on Chinese language imports reaching as much as 145% since April, met in flip by Chinese language retaliatory tariffs of as much as 125% and export controls on key uncooked supplies. The choice comes as US President Trumpʼs new tariffs on imports from ~90 nations took impact on August seventh, while extra notably for Beijing, the US imposed an additional 25% stacked penalty on India for the import of Russian oil, with China additionally seemingly within the firing line. Markets will concentrate on affirmation of the extension and extension interval, alongside any threats of penalties, while there’s a non-zero probability of no extension and a return to eye-watering tariffs.
RBA ANNOUNCEMENT (TUE): The RBA is prone to minimize charges at its assembly subsequent week as a latest Reuters ballot confirmed all 40 economists surveyed unanimously count on the RBA to chop the Money Fee by 25bps to three.60%, whereas cash markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a 25bps minimize and a 2% chance of a bigger 50bps discount. As a reminder, the RBA shocked markets on the final assembly by pausing on charges amid large expectations for a 25bps minimize, whereas its choice was made by a majority of 6-3 votes and said that the Board can be attentive to the info and evolving evaluation of dangers to information its choices. RBA additionally famous that inflation has continued to average and the outlook stays unsure, though the Board continues to evaluate that the dangers to inflation have turn out to be extra balanced and the labour market stays sturdy. Moreover, the Board remained cautious in regards to the outlook, notably given the heightened stage of uncertainty about each combination demand and provide, and it judged that it might look forward to just a little extra info to substantiate that inflation stays on monitor to succeed in 2.5% on a sustainable foundation. RBA Governor Bullock famous in the course of the post-meeting presser that there can be extra information and information by the subsequent assembly, and it was acceptable to have a cautious stance on easing, however famous she is assured they’re on a path to ease additional, though timing is the query and so they can count on charges to say no if inflation slows as anticipated. Since then, the language from the central financial institution hasnʼt supplied a lot to shift the dial, though the info releases would assist the case for a minimize after disappointing jobs information which confirmed the Unemployment Fee unexpectedly rose in June to its highest in three and a half years of 4.3% (Prev. 4.1%), whereas inflation continued to melt in Q2 with headline Australian CPI YY slowing to 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.4%).
UK JOBS REPORT (TUE): Expectations are for the ILO unemployment price within the 3-month interval to June to carry regular at 4.7%, while common earnings (ex-bonus) 3M/YY are forecast to stay at 5.0%, based on Reuters. As a reminder, the prior launch confirmed the ILO unemployment price continued to tick increased, rising to 4.7% within the 3M interval to Might from 3.6%. Nonetheless, the massive contraction within the Might HMRC payrolls change was revised materially increased and wage progress remained at an elevated price. This time round, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics count on the upcoming report to indicate “payroll job falls easing and earnings progress holding at a strong tempo”. Extra particularly, the consultancy is of the view that Juneʼs payroll drop can be revised to a smaller 8K month-to-month fall and Julyʼs print to come back in at -7k. For the unemployment price, PM expects one other print of 4.7%, while vacancies seem to have stabilised and will even be rising once more. On the wage entrance, Pantheon expects a slowdown within the 3M Y/Y ex-bonus metric to gradual to 4.8% from 4.9%, which might be under the MPCʼs Q2 forecast of 5.2%. From a coverage perspective, up till the August BoE coverage announcement, it had appeared that the MPC was more and more targeted on the loosening within the labour market. Nonetheless, absent a marked deterioration within the upcoming report, the most recent vote cut up means that the stubbornness of inflation might restrict the BoEʼs easing plans. Because it stands, the subsequent 25bps price minimize shouldn’t be totally priced till February 2026.
US CPI (TUE): US July CPI is anticipated to rise by +0.2% M/M on the headline stage (prev. +0.3%), with the annual price seen rising to 2.8% Y/Y from 2.7%. The core price of inflation is anticipated to rise by +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.2%), with the annual price of core inflation anticipated to rise to three.0% Y/Y from 2.9%. Wells Fargo says that the info will carry additional indicators of upper tariffs pushing up costs. “It’s nonetheless early within the worth adjustment course of to see how increased import taxes will finally be distributed between the endcustomer, home sellers and overseas exporters,” the financial institution writes, “on the identical time, rising shopper fatigue is making it tougher to boost costs normally.” Wells Fargo expects inflation to select up, however not ratchet increased, in H2 of this yr, and sees each the core CPI and core PCE deflator returning to round 3% in This fall. Some on the Fed are extra involved in regards to the labour market (Waller and Bowman), however others nonetheless imagine that inflation is additional away from the Fedʼs targets. Excessive inflation and fears of upper inflation forward in response to tariffs is seeing the Fed maintain a wait-and-see method. Nonetheless, with the latest July NFP report portray a softer image of the labour market than initially thought (as a consequence of chunky downward revisions), markets at the moment are on the lookout for a price minimize in September. Fedʼs Daly has since spoken on the matter, noting the Fed can’t wait endlessly.
NORGES BANK ANNOUNCEMENT: Norges Financial institution is anticipated to maintain charges regular at 4.25%, after the Financial institution unexpectedly minimize charges by 25bps on the final assembly. Policymakers defined their choice by suggesting core inflation declined considerably sooner than anticipated, and as such, their inflation outlook is decrease than beforehand anticipated. On future coverage, the Financial institution stated it “can be diminished additional in the middle of 2025”, ought to the economic system evolve as projected. Into this assembly, the Financial institution could have two inflation studies to digest; Juneʼs Core CPI-ATE printed a contact above the consensus (however in step with Norges Bankʼs personal forecast). Julyʼs metrics are but to come back out, SEB predicts CPI-ATE (Y/Y) will print at 3.0% (vs. Norges Financial institution forecast of three.1%). Given each SEB and Danske Financial institution name for a minimize in September and December, a softer inflation outturn for July might have coverage implications within the immediacy – notably within the context of a step by step cooling labour market.
AUSTRALIAN JOBS REPORT (THU): There are at present no forecasts for the Australian jobs report, which in June metrics missed expectations, with employment rising simply 2k (exp. +20k) and the jobless price climbing to 4.3% (exp. 4.1%) – the very best since late 2021. The report comes after the RBAʼs August assembly, wherein the central financial institution is prone to minimize charges. A latest Reuters ballot confirmed all 40 economists surveyed unanimously count on the RBA to chop the Money Fee by 25bps to three.60%, whereas cash markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a 25bps minimize and a 2% chance of a bigger 50bps discount. As a reminder, the RBA shocked markets on the final assembly by pausing on charges amid large expectations for a 25bps minimize, whereas its choice was made by a majority of 6-3 votes, and it said that the Board can be attentive to the info and evolving evaluation of dangers to information its choices. Markets will concentrate on whether or not the July jobs information confirms a development of soppy hiring and rising unemployment.
UK GDP (THU): Expectations are for M/M GDP in June to select as much as 0.1% from -0.1% with the Q/Q progress price anticipated to gradual to 0.1% from 0.7%. As a reminder, the Might launch confirmed a second M/M month-to-month decline. Albeit it adopted on from a powerful Q1, which was artificially boosted by the front-loading of anticipated tariffs. This time round, analysts at Investec maintain an aboveconsensus forecast of +0.3%, noting that “manufacturing exercise, based on the PMI indices, seems to be much less comfortable than earlier than”. Moreover, the desk seems to be for an growth within the providers sector and for building to rebound from the 0.6% retracement seen in Might. A 0.3% outturn would result in a Q2 Q/Q price of 0.2% and depart the economic system ready to develop by some 1.2%-1.3% over 2025 as an entire, a contact above the official Spring Assertion forecast from the OBR of 1.0%. From a coverage perspective, a comfortable outturn would additional restrict accessible headroom for UK Chancellor Reeves and sure see desks revise up their forecasts for the continuing “black gap” within the UKʼs funds. The implications for financial coverage are seemingly much less extreme, with the MPC extra biased to see how developments on the inflation fro
JAPANESE GDP (FRI): Japanese GDP Y/Y for Q2 is anticipated to print at -0.7% (prev. +2.2% in Q1). Industrial manufacturing is anticipated at +1.7% for June (vs -0.1% in Might). June Industrial Manufacturing is anticipated at +1.7% (prev. -0.1%). ING notes exports weakened sharply in Q2, with inventories additionally dragging, although providers and personal consumption have proven restoration. The BoJʼs newest assembly stored charges at 0.50% unanimously, reiterating readiness to hike if the economic system and costs monitor forecasts, however emphasising excessive trade-policy uncertainty. Governor Ueda, on the post-policy presser, stated the Japan-US commerce deal was “nice progress”, decreasing draw back dangers however with tariff impacts but to totally emerge; he expects some unfavourable impact in H2, although a tariff-driven financial nose-dive now appears unlikely. Underlying inflation is seen stalling earlier than step by step re-accelerating, with reaching 2% “nearer than earlier than,” and wage progress anticipated to show constructive by year-end. There was additionally confusion concerning the US-Japan commerce deal, wherein “tariff stacking” noticed miscommunication, though on Friday, Japan’s commerce negotiator Akazawa stated that they’ve been capable of affirm a non-stacking stance from the US, and there’s no discrepancy between the US and Japan that there isn’t any tariff stacking.
CHINESE ACTIVITY DATA (FRI): There are at present no central expectations for the Chinese language exercise information, though the development is anticipated to indicate additional moderation in financial exercise. ING sees industrial manufacturing slowing to ~6.2% Y/Y (prev. 6.5%), retail gross sales easing to 4.6% Y/Y (because the enhance from trade-in insurance policies peaks), and stuck asset funding holding close to 2.8% Y/Y YTD amid subdued personal sector participation. The info, nonetheless, is lagging and will show to be stale, contingent on the US-China tariff truce, which is about to run out on August twelfth. The truce is prone to be prolonged by 90 days, based on US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on Thursday. That being stated, members ought to be cognizant that there’s a non-zero probability of no extension and a return to eye-watering tariffs
US RETAIL SALES (FRI): Headline retail gross sales are anticipated to rise by +0.5% M/M in July (prev. +0.6%), with the ex-autos measure seen cooling to +0.2% M/M (prev. +0.5%). Retail gross sales in June rose greater than anticipated, partly as a consequence of a shock leap in auto gross sales. Nonetheless, Pantheon Macroeconomics famous that the info was flattered by this achieve, regardless of falling unit gross sales and rising costs from tariffs. Pantheon expects actual retail spending to stagnate forward, with Q3 consumption prone to develop by lower than 1%. Individuals Copyright © {{ copyright-year }} can be watching the Retail Gross sales information to see if there’s a slowdown in shopper spending, given the latest jobs report confirmed a weaker labour market than initially thought as a result of chunky, downward two-month internet revisions.
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