Highlights embody NVDA earnings, Australian CPI, Tokyo CPI, PBoC LPR, and BoK
Nvidia Inventory
MON: German Ifo (Feb)’
TUE: Mainland Chinese language markets return from Lunar New Yr, PBoC LPR, US ADP Weekly, Home Costs (Dec), Shopper Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb)
WED: Australian CPI (Jan), Norwegian Shopper Confidence (Q1), Unemployment (Jan), German GfK (Mar), GDP Remaining (This autumn), Swiss Sentiment (Feb), EZ HICP Remaining (Jan), Nvidia earnings
THU: EZ Shopper Confidence Remaining (Feb), Mexican Unemployment (Jan), UK Gorton and Denton by-election, BoK
FRI: Tokyo CPI (Feb), French, Spanish, German HICP, German Unemployment PBOC LPR
(TUE): The PBoC is broadly anticipated to maintain the 1-year and 5-year Mortgage Prime Charges (LPRs) unchanged at 3.00% and three.50%, respectively. Analysts cite record-low web curiosity margins at industrial banks as a key constraint, warning that additional LPR cuts would possible intensify strain on profitability. The timing across the Lunar New Yr additionally suggests the central financial institution will prioritise short-term liquidity operations, similar to 7-day reverse repos, over changes to benchmark charges. Current coverage communication signifies a desire for focused easing measures, together with sector-specific help or RRR cuts, moderately than a direct broad-based discount within the LPR.
AUSTRALIAN CPI (WED): Australiaʼs month-to-month CPI information for January are due subsequent Wednesday and will probably be carefully watched by traders and policymakers for alerts on the financial coverage outlook after the RBA earlier this month raised charges for the primary time in additional than two years following a current pick-up in inflation. Decemberʼs month-to-month information confirmed shopper costs accelerated by a faster-than-expected 3.8% Y/Y versus 3.6% forecast and three.4% beforehand, pushed by a 5.5% rise in housing prices, whereas alcohol and tobacco costs elevated 4.9%, recreation and tradition rose 4.4%, and meals and non-alcoholic drinks climbed 3.4%. Quarterly figures confirmed headline This autumn CPI matched estimates, however different measures, together with the RBAʼs most popular trimmed imply, exceeded forecasts and remained above the central bankʼs 2-3% goal band. Additional elevated readings would possible immediate the RBA to think about further price will increase, after Governor Bullock mentioned the financial institution couldn’t enable inflation to get away and that the board would stay data-focused, including that inflation at round 3-point-something was unacceptable.
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NVIDIA EARNINGS (WED): Experiences earnings on Wednesday, February 25 at 21:20 GMT/16:20 EST, with traders carefully watching its metrics given its management in AI. Nvidia continues to learn from surging capital expenditure, with AMZN, GOOGL, META and MSFT having already dedicated USD 622bln in 2026, whereas Chief Government Huang has reiterated the robust trajectory of AI chip demand. Sentiment stays extremely constructive, with many anticipating additional upside. Promote-side consensus going into the outcomes is for income to exceed expectations, with UBS forecasting a top-line beat of round USD 2.5bln and Oppenheimer pointing to a “typical” USD 2-3bln upside. Buying and selling desks anticipate a continued robust ramp-up of GB300 by means of H1, whereas Morgan Stanley believes a sturdy Vera Rubin ramp will ease any share issues and sees scope for outperformance from present ranges. Morgan Stanley additionally mentioned it will welcome larger readability on Nvidiaʼs work with OpenAI, which it mentioned would wish to rebound for the partnership to stay strategically vital over the long term. Trying forward, whereas earnings will probably be carefully scrutinised, Citi mentioned many traders are already targeted on the annual GTC convention in mid-March, the place Nvidia is predicted to stipulate its inference roadmap utilizing Groqʼs low-latency SRAM IP and supply an early outlook for 2026-27 AI gross sales. Citi recommends including to NVDA, arguing valuation seems engaging and the inventory is prone to outperform in H2 26 as demand visibility extends into 2027. For This autumn, adjusted EPS is forecast at USD 1.53, income at USD 65.69bln and gross margins at 74.97% versus 73.60% in Q3. Information centre income is predicted at USD 59.9bln versus USD 51.2bln, whereas gaming income is seen at USD 4.1bln versus USD 4.3bln. For the subsequent quarter, revenue and income are projected at USD 1.66 and USD 70.96bln, respectively. For the total yr, EPS is seen at USD 4.69 and income at USD 213.61bln, with important consideration on the size of any upside to the USD 500bln CY25-26 information centre targe
GORTON AND DENTON BY-ELECTION (THU): The by-election serves as a proper litmus take a look at on the fortunes of the UK Labour Occasion and, by extension, PM Starmer. As a reminder, Starmer has been underneath important strain and scrutiny in current weeks as extra particulars emerge round, and the fallout continues, re. Mandelston/Epstein and Starmer. Forward of the by-election, Starmer himself has described it as a straight contest between Reform and Labour. Nonetheless, the by-election is thought to be a really shut one to name on account of particular components and as such the Greens, Reform, or Labour may conceivably win. Whereas Labour not-winning won’t be a deadly blow for Starmer, a poor outcome may spark a return to current strain on the PM and would possible see the percentages of a Labour leadership-election being “scheduled” by March thirty first improve from the present 7%; for reference, the present odds of 1 by June thirtieth (i.e. within the aftermath of the Could native elections) stands at 49%. Word, the rising view with the Labour get together seems to be that it’s maybe, on stability, value leaving Starmer in his place no matter how the by-election goes, after which reassessing the scenario at that time. Because it stands, the possible favorite inside Labour to succeed Starmer can be former deputy Rayner. Nonetheless, her stance as a ‘delicate leftʼ member of the get together means she is a much less market-friendly choice, as the belief is that she would improve public spending by way of larger taxation, vs the present Starmer/Reeves administrationʼs strategy. Polymarket odds on there being one other PM in 2026 suggest a 42% likelihood of no-change, adopted by Rayner on 15% and Wes Streeting marginally beneath; word, the likelihood of Rayner changing Starmer in 2026 has been as excessive as 20% in current weeks.
BOK: The Financial institution of Korea will maintain a coverage assembly subsequent week, at which the central financial institution is predicted to stay on maintain and preserve itsBase Fee at 2.50%. At its January assembly, as broadly anticipated, the central financial institution left charges unchanged in a unanimous choice and eliminated the reference to a “potential price reduce” from its assertion. Governor Rhee mentioned policymakers should stay cautious about FX volatility and famous that addressing such volatility requires instant steps in addition to structural reforms. He additionally mentioned 5 board members noticed a “excessive probability” of a maintain over the subsequent three months, whereas one member noticed scope for a near-term reduce. This factors to a low probability of a coverage adjustment on the upcoming assembly, though a shock reduce can’t be absolutely dominated out after South Koreaʼs advance This autumn GDP information confirmed an sudden Q/Q contraction of -0.3% versus expectations of 0.1% and the earlier 1.3%, whereas Y/Y development additionally undershot forecasts at 1.5% versus 1.9% anticipated and 1.8% beforehand.
TOKYO CPI (FRI): Tokyo CPI information for February are due subsequent week and are seen as a number one indicator of nationwide value developments, with traders expecting additional easing after Januaryʼs slowdown. The earlier launch confirmed value development within the capital decelerated, with Tokyo CPI Y/Y at 1.5% versus 1.8% anticipated and a couple of.0% beforehand, whereas core inflation fell to a 15-month low of two.0% versus 2.2% forecast and a couple of.3% prior. Tokyo CPI excluding contemporary meals and power was additionally softer than anticipated at 2.4% versus 2.6% forecast and a couple of.6% beforehand, although it remained above the BoJʼs 2% goal. The softer readings mirrored base results in meals costs and decrease power prices, as petrol costs fell almost 15% following the abolition of provisional surcharges on the petrol tax and the diesel transaction tax, electrical energy fees declined 2%, and gasoline payments dropped 4.5%, leading to a 4.2% fall in power costs. ING mentioned slower inflation and subdued exercise would possible preserve the BoJ in wait-and-see mode, with the central financial institution unlikely to hurry into price hikes whereas inflation is easing and requiring agency proof that underlying value pressures are strengthening, making the end result of the Shunto spring wage negotiations and April CPI information key components to look at.
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