Could NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) at the moment is up +0.22 (+1.43%), and Could London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) is down -1.70 (-0.38%).
Sugar costs are blended at the moment, with NY sugar climbing to a recent 5-month excessive. Â Sugar costs fell again from their finest ranges at the moment, with London sugar turning decrease, amid power within the greenback ($DXY).
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Hovering gasoline costs are boosting ethanol costs and are bullish for sugar. Â Gasoline (RBJ26) is up greater than +2% at the moment and posted a 3.5-year excessive on Thursday, which can encourage the world’s sugar mills to extend ethanol manufacturing on the expense of sugar. Â
Sugar costs are additionally discovering help amid provide disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Â Based on Covrig Analytics, the closure of the strait has curbed roughly 6% of the world’s sugar commerce, constraining refined sugar output.
Earlier this month, sugar costs plunged to five.25-year nearest-futures lows on concern {that a} world sugar surplus will persist. Â On February 11, analysts from sugar dealer Czarnikow stated they anticipate a worldwide sugar surplus of three.4 MMT within the 2026/27 crop 12 months, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. Â Additionally, Inexperienced Pool Commodity Specialists stated on January 29 that they anticipate a 2.74 MMT world sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27. Â In the meantime, StoneX stated February 13 that it expects a worldwide sugar surplus of two.9 MMT in 2025/26.
The Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) on February 27 forecasted a +1.22 MMT (million metric ton) sugar surplus in 2025-26, following a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25. Â ISO stated the excess is being pushed by elevated sugar manufacturing in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Â ISO is forecasting a +3.0% y/y rise in world sugar manufacturing to 181.3 million MMT in 2025-26. Â
Indicators of decrease sugar output in Brazil are supportive of sugar costs, after Unica on February 18 reported that sugar manufacturing in Brazil’s Middle-South within the second half of January fell by -36% y/y to solely 5,000 MT. Â Nevertheless, cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output via January rose +0.9% y/y to 40.24 MMT.
The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Producers Affiliation (ISMA) reported Tuesday that India’s 2025-26 sugar output from Oct 1-Mar 15 was up +10.5% y/y to 26.2 MMT. Â Final Wednesday, the ISMA projected India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing at 29.3 MMT, up 12% y/y, beneath an earlier projection of 30.95 MMT. Â The ISMA additionally minimize its estimate for sugar used for ethanol manufacturing in India to three.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which can enable India to spice up its sugar exports. Â India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer. Â
Sugar costs are being undercut amid prospects of upper Indian sugar exports. Â On February 13, India’s authorities authorised a further 500,000 MT of sugar for export for the 2025/26 season, on prime of the 1.5 MMT authorised in November. Â India launched a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain decreased manufacturing and restricted home provides.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched on December 16, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.6% y/y to a file 189.318 MMT and that world 2025/26 human sugar consumption would enhance +1.4% y/y to a file 177.921 MMT. Â The USDA additionally forecast that 2025/26 world sugar ending shares would fall by -2.9% y/y to 41.188 MMT. Â The USDA’s International Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise by 2.3% y/y to a file 44.7 MMT. Â FAS additionally predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would enhance by 25% y/y to 35.25 MMT, pushed by favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. Â As well as, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will enhance by +2% y/y to 10.25 MMT.Â
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