Cattle slaughter has barely missed a beat in winter and spring to this point. 5 years of herd progress has culminated in cattle slaughter ranges not seen since 2019. Determine 1 exhibits east coast cattle slaughter monitoring nicely forward of final yr and the five-year common for a lot of 2025.
The uncooked figures from Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) weekly slaughter numbers put year-to-date east coast cattle slaughter 11% above 2024, and an enormous 31% increased than the five-year common.
The extraordinary factor is, we’ve simply hit document costs for slaughter cows, whereas working at very sturdy slaughter ranges. Costs for cows are increased now than they have been when slaughter charges have been at their tightest in 2022 (Determine 2).
Heavy steer costs usually are not far off their peaks, however as we all know, the Japanese Younger Cattle Indicator (EYCI) is nicely off its highs.
The newest MLA Cattle Business Projections, launched earlier this month, have 2025 pegged as the height of cattle slaughter, forecasting simply over 9 million head to go over the hooks. The forecast enhance in slaughter in 2025 is 8.6% on 2024.
If we’re to hit MLA’s forecast, cattle slaughter must fall from present ranges. So as to hit the 8.6% enhance, cattle slaughter would wish to fall to round 140,000 head per week up till late December. Taking a look at Determine 1, this might put cattle slaughter at comparable ranges to final yr.
We are able to additionally see in Determine 1 that cattle slaughter traditionally will increase within the final two months of the yr. As such, it will take a counter-seasonal decline in cattle slaughter to hit the slaughter goal.
