Sugar Prices Erase Early Gains as Brazil’s Sugar Output Increases

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) right now is down -0.11 (-0.67%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) is down -0.10 (-0.02%).

Sugar costs gave up an early advance right now and turned decrease on energy in Brazil’s sugar manufacturing.  Unica reported right now that Brazil’s Middle-South sugar output within the first half of August rose by +16% y/y to three,615 MT.  Additionally, the share of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the first half of August elevated to 55.00% from 49.15% the identical time final yr.  Nonetheless, cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output by way of mid-August is down -4.7% y/y to 22.886 MMT.

Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to espresso, join free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity evaluation.

Sugar costs initially moved larger right now, with London sugar posting a 3.5-month excessive after the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) forecast a world sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, the sixth consecutive yr of sugar deficits.  The ISO initiatives a world 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, enhancing from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25.  The ISO additionally initiatives 2025/26 world sugar manufacturing will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 world sugar consumption will improve +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.

Sugar additionally has a optimistic carryover from Tuesday, when Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, lower its Brazil 2025/26 manufacturing estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT from a earlier estimate of 45.9 MMT.

On August 12, NY sugar rallied to a 2.5-month excessive on considerations over weaker cane yields in Brazil.  Conab reported final month that 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields on account of drought and extreme warmth.

Sugar costs have been beneath stress over the previous two weeks, posting 2-week lows final Monday because of the outlook for decrease sugar manufacturing in Brazil.  Final Monday, Covrig Analytics reported that Brazil’s sugar mills are prioritizing sugar manufacturing over ethanol, crushing extra cane for sugar.  This development is predicted to proceed as harvesting peaks, pushed by drier cane crops that immediate mills to provide extra sugar.  

The outlook for larger sugar exports from India is adverse for sugar costs after Bloomberg reported that India could allow native sugar mills to export sugar within the subsequent season, which begins in October, as plentiful monsoon rains could produce a bumper sugar crop.  India’s Meteorological Division reported final Friday that cumulative monsoon rain in India was 650.3 mm as of August 22, or 2% above regular.  Additionally, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Producers Affiliation lately stated that it’ll search permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in 2025/26.

The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in India, the world’s second-largest producer, is bearish for costs.  On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage.  That might comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, in response to the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).  

Sugar costs retreated by way of early July, with NY sugar falling to a 4.25-year low and London sugar sliding to a 4-year low, pushed by expectations of a sugar surplus within the 2025/26 season.  On June 30, commodities dealer Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT world sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the biggest surplus in 8 years.  On Might 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would improve by +4.7% y/y to a document 189.318 MMT, with world sugar ending shares at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.

The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for sugar costs.  On Might 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT.  Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.

The ISO on Might 15 lower its 2024/25 world sugar manufacturing forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT and forecast 2024/25 world sugar consumption at 180.3 MMT.

The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Might 22, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a document 189.318 MMT and that world 2025/26 human sugar consumption would improve +1.4% y/y to a document 177.921 MMT.  The USDA additionally forecasted that 2025/26 world sugar ending shares would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT.  The USDA’s International Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +2.3% y/y to a document 44.7 MMT  FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT on account of favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT. 

On the date of publication,

Wealthy Asplund

didn’t have (both straight or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All data and information on this article is solely for informational functions.

For extra data please view the Barchart Disclosure Coverage

right here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the writer and don’t essentially replicate these of Nasdaq, Inc.