March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) right this moment is down -0.16 (-1.07%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is down -7.70 (-1.81%).
Sugar costs are decrease after the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) right this moment forecast a 1.625 million MT surplus in 2025-26, following a 2.916 million MT deficit in 2024-25. Â ISO mentioned the excess is being pushed by elevated sugar manufacturing in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Â In August, ISO had beforehand forecast a 231,000 MT deficit for the 2025-26 advertising and marketing 12 months. Â ISO is forecasting a +3.2% y/y rise in world sugar manufacturing to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26.
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Sugar costs rallied to 3-week highs final Friday amid tighter provides from India. Â India’s meals ministry mentioned final Friday that it’s going to permit mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar within the 2025/26 season, lower than earlier estimates of two MMT. Â India launched a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain decreased manufacturing and restricted home provides.
The outlook for strong world sugar provides has hammered sugar costs over the previous month. Â Final Monday, London sugar posted a brand new 4.75-year nearest-futures low, and final Thursday, NY sugar costs slumped to a 5-year nearest-futures low, primarily attributable to increased sugar output in Brazil and discuss of a worldwide sugar surplus. Â Sugar dealer Czarnikow on Nov 5 boosted its world 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to eight.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a September estimate of seven.5 MMT.
The outlook for report sugar output in Brazil is bearish for costs. Â Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting company on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar manufacturing estimate to 45 MMT from a earlier forecast of 44.5 MMT. Â Unica just lately reported that Brazil’s Middle-South sugar output within the second half of October rose by +16.4% y/y to 2.068 MT. Â Additionally, the proportion of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the second half of October elevated to 46.02% from 45.91% the identical time final 12 months. Â As well as, cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output by October rose +1.6% y/y to 38.085 MMT.
Indicators of a bigger sugar crop in India, the world’s second-largest producer, are undercutting costs after the India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) final Tuesday raised its 2025/26 India sugar manufacturing estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y. Â The ISMA additionally lower its estimate for sugar used for ethanol manufacturing in India to three.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which can permit India to spice up its sugar exports.
The outlook for increased sugar exports from India is unfavourable for sugar costs, as plentiful monsoon rains could produce a bumper sugar crop. Â On September 30, India’s Meteorological Division reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall as of that date was 937.2 mm, 8% above regular, marking the strongest monsoon in 5 years. Â On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. Â That will comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.1 MMT, in line with the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA). Â
The outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for costs. Â The Thai Sugar Millers Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will improve by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. Â On Could 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Â Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Could 22, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT and that world 2025/26 human sugar consumption would improve +1.4% y/y to a report 177.921 MMT. Â The USDA additionally forecast that 2025/26 world sugar ending shares would climb by +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. Â The USDA’s Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise by 2.3% y/y to a report 44.7 MMT. Â FAS additionally predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would improve by 25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, pushed by favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. Â As well as, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will improve by +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.Â
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