Sugar Prices Fall Sharply as India May Boost Sugar Exports

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Thursday closed down -0.28 (-1.90%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -6.40 (-1.52%).

Sugar costs fell sharply on Thursday to 1-week lows at the moment amid prospects of upper sugar exports from India, after India’s meals secretary stated the federal government could allow extra sugar exports to cut back a home provide glut.  Final month, India’s meals ministry stated it will enable mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar within the 2025/26 season.  India launched a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain decreased manufacturing and restricted home provides.

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Weak spot within the Brazilian actual can also be bearish for sugar costs.  The true (^USDBRL) fell to a 4.5-month low in opposition to the greenback at the moment, encouraging export gross sales from Brazil’s sugar producers.  

Sugar costs had been already on the defensive from Monday when the India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) reported that Indian 2025-26 sugar manufacturing from October 1 to December 15 jumped +28% y/y to 7.83 MMT.  

Indicators of a bigger sugar crop in India, the world’s second-largest producer, are undercutting costs after the India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) on November 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar manufacturing estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y.  The ISMA additionally lower its estimate for sugar used for ethanol manufacturing in India to three.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which can enable India to spice up its sugar exports.

The outlook for greater sugar exports from India is adverse for sugar costs, as India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage.  That might comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.1 MMT, in keeping with the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).  

The outlook for file sugar output in Brazil can also be bearish for costs.  Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting company, on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar manufacturing estimate to 45 MMT from a earlier forecast of 44.5 MMT.  On Tuesday, Unica reported that Brazil’s cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output via November rose by +1.1% y/y to 39.904 MMT.  Additionally, the quantity of cane crushed for sugar rose to 51.12% in 2025/36 from 48.34% in 2024/25.

On the bearish facet for sugar, the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) on November 17 forecast a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus in 2025-26, following a 2.916 million MT deficit in 2024-25.  ISO stated the excess is being pushed by elevated sugar manufacturing in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.  In August, ISO had beforehand forecast a 231,000 MT deficit for the 2025-26 advertising and marketing yr.  ISO is forecasting a +3.2% y/y rise in international sugar manufacturing to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26.  In the meantime, sugar dealer Czarnikow on November 5 boosted its international 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to eight.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a September estimate of seven.5 MMT.

The outlook for greater sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for costs.  The Thai Sugar Millers Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will improve by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT.  Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter.

The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Tuesday, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.6% y/y to a file 189.318 MMT and that international 2025/26 human sugar consumption would improve +1.4% y/y to a file 177.921 MMT.  The USDA additionally forecast that 2025/26 international sugar ending shares would fall by -2.9% y/y to 41.188 MMT.  The USDA’s Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise by 2.3% y/y to a file 44.7 MMT.  FAS additionally predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would improve by 25% y/y to 35.25 MMT, pushed by favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage.  As well as, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will improve by +2% y/y to 10.25 MMT. 

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