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Home Trading News Commodities

The Rally That Makes No Sense

October 21, 2025
in Commodities
Reading Time: 6 mins read
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The Rally That Makes No Sense
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Each day Information Nuggets | Right this moment’s high tales for gold and silver traders October 21st, 2025 

 

Goldman Sachs: “All the pieces is Bizarre” within the Markets 

Shares, bonds, and gold are all climbing in unison — a sample that breaks a long time of historic conduct. 

Usually, these belongings transfer in numerous instructions. When shares rally, bonds dump. Gold thrives when equities wrestle. However proper now? The S&P 500, long-dated Treasuries, and valuable metals are all making new highs collectively. 

The S&P 500 has surged 15% this yr to a number of information. Treasury bonds are rallying. Gold simply hit $4,381. In the meantime, the VIX — Wall Road’s worry gauge — stays subdued regardless of commerce struggle headlines and a authorities shutdown. 

“All the pieces is bizarre,” says Goldman dealer Bobby Molavi, noting that conventional correlations are “thrown out the window.” Retail traders preserve shopping for. AI spending reveals no indicators of slowing. Earnings season is holding up. 

It’s the sort of market that climbs each wall of fear — till it doesn’t. When belongings that sometimes hedge in opposition to one another all transfer in lockstep, one thing’s shifting beneath the floor. That shift turned seen this week in valuable metals… 

 

Gold and Silver Pull Again, However Consumers Aren’t Retreating 

Gold pulled again 2% on Tuesday morning, after touching a recent report of $4,381 an oz.. Silver took a tougher hit, dropping as a lot as 6% as profit-taking swept by way of valuable metals. 

The retreat isn’t stunning — technical indicators had been flashing overbought warnings for days. However right here’s what issues: dip patrons emerged nearly instantly. That alerts traders nonetheless see worth at these ranges, not the beginning of a reversal. 

The basics haven’t modified. Price cuts are coming, geopolitical tensions stay elevated, and central financial institution shopping for continues. What’s modified is the worth simply turned extra engaging for anybody who missed the preliminary rally. 

 

Friday’s Inflation Report Might Sign Fed’s Subsequent Transfer 

Economists count on September’s CPI to point out 3.1% inflation yearly — sufficient to maintain the Ate up monitor for a quarter-point price lower at subsequent week’s assembly. After preserving charges locked at restrictive ranges for months, the central financial institution is now in reducing mode. 

That issues for gold. Decrease charges cut back the chance value of holding non-yielding belongings, which is why valuable metals sometimes thrive when the Fed pivots. The present pullback isn’t a break within the pattern — it’s consolidation earlier than the following leg larger, assuming the info cooperates. 

One wrinkle: the continuing authorities shutdown may complicate the discharge schedule, although the Bureau of Labor Statistics sometimes maintains important capabilities throughout funding lapses. Merchants are hitting pause till they see the numbers. Whereas markets watch the Fed, Washington is recalibrating its commerce technique. 

 

Uncommon Earths Are the New Oil — and the West Is Scrambling 

China simply turned rare-earth minerals right into a geopolitical weapon. Its new export restrictions, timed with Washington’s escalating tariff threats, uncovered how dangerously dependent Western manufacturing has change into on Beijing’s management of parts most individuals have by no means heard of. 

These metals are in all places: electrical automobile motors, wind generators, precision weapons, smartphones. With out them, trendy trade stops. China dominates roughly 70% of worldwide manufacturing and practically 90% of refining. 

Now, the scramble to interrupt that stranglehold is on. Firms are pivoting to home mining, with some shares surging 20% on bulletins alone. Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs warns that even fast-tracked U.S. services gained’t be operational till 2028. That’s three extra years of vulnerability whereas the West tries to rebuild provide chains it spent a long time outsourcing. 

Markets are betting useful resource nationalism isn’t momentary — it’s the brand new regular. In the event that they’re proper, uncommon earths be a part of oil, semiconductors, and metal as commodities nations can’t afford to import. That protectionist stance, nevertheless, is already exhibiting cracks… 

 

Trump Admin Rolls Again Tariffs that Can’t Be Made in USA 

Seems you may’t develop bananas in Michigan. The Trump administration has carved out exemptions for items that merely can’t be produced domestically — an implicit admission of the boundaries of its reshoring ambitions.  

The zero-tariff listing covers 45 classes, from espresso and cocoa to pineapples and choose electronics. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins mentioned the transfer applies to items the U.S. “lacks the local weather or assets to provide at scale.” In different phrases, this can be a concession to financial geography — and actuality. 

It’s additionally a quiet shift in technique. After retail CEOs warned in April that tariffs would trigger seen worth spikes inside weeks, the White Home started tempering its method. Some exemptions might be everlasting for commerce companions with present offers; others, like electronics, are momentary whereas sector-specific levies are redesigned. 

The takeaway isn’t about pineapples — it’s about coverage physics. The unique tariff blueprint assumed America may will self-sufficiency into existence. These rollbacks are a recognition that world provide chains aren’t simply undone.  

For traders, it’s one other reminder that inflationary strain gained’t fade shortly—and that belongings insulated from political miscalculations, like gold, nonetheless serve a function when financial experiments hit their limits. 

 



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