This week, we’re going to have to make use of 4 charts for example the story, because it appears we haven’t printed a lamb slaughter chart for a while. Determine 1 exhibits the speedy decline within the availability of completed lambs.
The final two weeks have seen lamb slaughter fall beneath the five-year common. It’s fascinating to notice that lamb slaughter continues to be a lot stronger, within the order of 23%, than in July 2019 and 2020. Lamb slaughter can be 8% greater than 2021; it’s simply manner down in 2023 and 2024.
July lamb exports had been decrease, down 12.5%, however the US market is holding comparatively robust, down 5% on final yr, and up marginally on June numbers (Determine 2). The market that’s lacking out is the Center East, which took 52% much less lamb than July final yr, and 45% lower than Might this yr, which was the height of 2025.
Lamb exports to China had been up 6% on final yr, however down 28% on June. Lamb exports to China often weaken in July and thru to spring.
The one actual indication we are able to get of lamb export costs is the imported worth reported by america Division of Agriculture (USDA). Determine 3 exhibits the 2 largest quantity cuts to the US, and costs are greater. Chilled shortloins to the US are 20% stronger than final yr, and frozen boneless legs are 24% stronger.
For reference in our phrases, the shortloin worth comes out at $21.40/kg and the leg at $17/kg. Costs to the US are a lot stronger than final yr, however lamb costs are 50% stronger in saleyards.
Taking a look at this knowledge suggests the US is the market ready to pay extra for lamb, whereas a scarcity of acceptable provide and growing costs are seeing consumers within the Center East and China sluggish shipments.
