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Home Trading News Forex

USD/CAD Outlook: Loonie Drops After Trump’s 35% Tariff Shock

July 12, 2025
in Forex
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USD/CAD Outlook: Loonie Drops After Trump’s 35% Tariff Shock
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The USD/CAD outlook suggests financial uncertainty in Canada.

Trump introduced a 35% tariff on imports from Canada, which weighed on the loonie.

Market members are awaiting Canada’s month-to-month employment report.

The USD/CAD outlook suggests financial uncertainty in Canada following Trump’s announcement of a 35% tariff on items from the nation. Consequently, the Canadian greenback collapsed towards the US greenback. In the meantime, market members are awaiting essential employment knowledge from Canada.

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Trump on Thursday intensified his tariff threats by saying extra tariffs on international locations that had not but signed commerce offers. Notably, Canada received a 35% tariff on its imports, which weighed on the loonie. If there is no such thing as a commerce deal between Canada and the US by August 1, the tariffs will take impact. Such an final result would dim the outlook for Canada’s financial system. On the similar time, it might end in a commerce warfare between the 2 international locations. 

In the meantime, the US president additionally stated he was planning a blanket tariff of 15% or 20% on most international locations. The information boosted the greenback, which may benefit from increased import prices and inflation. Nevertheless, in the long term, commerce wars may harm the US financial system. Already, Brazil has vowed to retaliate come August 1.

In the meantime, market members are awaiting Canada’s month-to-month employment report. This may assist form the outlook for Financial institution of Canada charge cuts. 

USD/CAD key occasions right now

Canada employment change
Canada unemployment charge

USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls face sturdy resistance at 1.3700

USD/CAD technical outlook
USD/CAD 4-hour chart

On the technical aspect, the USD/CAD worth has bounced increased after assembly the 30-SMA help. Though it reached a brand new excessive, bulls have been unable to shut above the important thing 1.3700 stage. As a substitute, the value made a big wick, displaying a rejection. 

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The brand new bullish transfer has met strong resistance on the 1.3700 stage, inflicting the value to stall for a while. Nevertheless, the bullish bias stays sturdy, for the reason that worth revered the SMA as help. Due to this fact, bulls might try one other push towards the resistance. A clear break above the extent would permit USD/CAD to focus on the 1.3800 resistance. Furthermore, it might strengthen the bullish bias. 

However, if the 1.3700 resistance holds agency, the value might drop again under the SMA. In such a case, bears would possible retest the 1.3550 help stage.

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Tags: dropsLoonieOutlookShocktariffTrumpsUSDCAD
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